Analysis | BJP's Strategic Mastery: A Prelude To Bihar Assembly Elections

As the clock ticks down to the Bihar Assembly elections, the political landscape is a tapestry woven with both bold strokes and subtle nuances. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) stand poised, having meticulously finalised their seat-sharing arrangement with a precision that speaks to a well-honed strategy. In stark contrast, their main rival, the Mahagathbandhan, finds itself entangled in a web of negotiations, grappling with the complexities of alliance politics less than three weeks before the polls are set to unfold.

For the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, the NDA has carved out a clear path, with the BJP and Janata Dal (United) will each contest 101 seats, while the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is allocated 29 seats, and smaller parties like the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha (RLM) and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) are granted 6 seats apiece.

This strategic distribution is not merely a matter of arithmetic; it symbolises a crucial shift in the political dynamics between the BJP and JD(U). For the first time, the BJP is contesting an equal number of seats, a gesture that hints at an evolving partnership, one that may redefine the power balance in Bihar.

BJP's Bihar Plan Mirrors Its Maharashtra Strategy

The BJP's methodology is reminiscent of the hunting strategies of lion - patient, calculated, and opportunistic. The party's master strategists embrace the adage of "two steps backwards, one step forward." This approach allows them to patiently observe the political terrain, waiting for the opportune moment to strike.

Much like a lion that circles its prey before pouncing, the BJP has engaged in a careful dance of alliances, particularly in Maharashtra, where it allowed Eknath Shinde's faction of the Shiv Sena, to take the Chief Ministership for two years and five months before consolidating its own power. After the big victory in the 2024 Maharashtra assembly polls, the BJP flipped the hierarchy: Devendra Fadnavis was made Chief Minister, Shinde was demoted and made the Deputy Chief Minister along with Ajit Pawar.

BJP's Game Plan To Claim The Chief Ministership In Bihar

Now, as the BJP mirrors the Maharashtra strategy in Bihar, it stands to gain a significant advantage. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, while a formidable figure in his own right, is not in the prime of his health, a factor that may influence voter sentiment. By equalising seat distribution with the JD(U), the BJP positions itself advantageously; if its candidates outperform their JD(U) counterparts, the saffron party could emerge with a claim to the Chief Ministership, much like the trajectory it followed in Maharashtra.

Bolstering Modiji's 'Hanuman'

Chirag Paswan, the leader of LJP(R), embodies the complexities of this alliance. His animosity towards Nitish Kumar is well-known - his 2020 strategy focused on undermining the JD(U) while sparing the BJP. Now, by aligning with the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP, which he has dubbed his "Hanuman" status, Paswan positions himself within a narrative of loyalty to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the modern incarnation of Lord Rama.

The BJP's willingness to allocate a robust number of seats to Paswan's party reflects a careful calculation, recognising that his support could bolster their efforts against the JD(U).

Amit Shah's Unified Campaign Approach

In a recent meeting, Amit Shah emphasised a unified approach, proclaiming that the BJP cadres would campaign not just for their party but for the NDA as a cohesive entity. This marks a departure from the fractured efforts of 2020, where Paswan's targeting of Nitish Kumar ultimately hindered the NDA's overall performance, which barely scraped through with a margin of just 0.03 per cent of the vote share. The BJP seems determined to avoid such pitfalls this time around.

Mahagathbandhan Mired In Negotiations While NDA Completes Seat Sharing

As the NDA solidifies its campaign groundwork, the Mahagathbandhan remains mired in negotiations, struggling to finalise its seat-sharing arrangements amid a cacophony of voices and interests. With the clock ticking and the electoral stakes high, the disarray within the opposition stands in stark contrast to the BJP's strategic clarity.

This juxtaposition not only underscores the BJP's organisational prowess but also sets the stage for a dynamic electoral battle.

In this intricate dance of alliances and ambitions, the BJP's calculated manoeuvres reflect a deep understanding of the political landscape in Bihar. As they prepare to launch their ground campaign as a united front, the question looms: will the Mahagathbandhan find its footing in time, or will the BJP's strategic mastery prevail, reshaping the future of Bihar's political tapestry? Only time will tell, but for now, the BJP has undeniably seized the initiative, positioning itself as the lion ready to pounce.