Prashant Kishor Party's Vote Share To Beat Congress', Predicts Exit Poll

The exit polls for the Bihar Assembly elections have predicted a clear victory for the NDA and NDTV's Poll of Exit Polls, which is an aggregate, suggests that the ruling alliance will win 147 of the state's 243 seats - well over the majority mark of 122 - the opposition Mahagathbandhan 90, and the Jan Suraaj Party just 1.

One of the pollsters, Peoples Pulse has predicted that the NDA will win 133-159 constituencies, the Mahagathbandhan 75-101 and Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party 0-5. Peoples Pulse has also given a breakup of the vote shares, estimating that the NDA will receive 46.2% and the Grand Alliance 37.9%.

The pollster has projected that the RJD is likely to retain the highest vote share at 23.3%, the BJP will get 21.4%, the JDU 17.6%, the Jan Suraaj Party 9.7%, and the Congress 8.7%. It has also indicated a margin of error of 3%.

Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong. 

A comparison with the vote shares of 2020 suggests that the RJD will lose 0.2 percentage points from its share of 23.5% while the BJP will gain 1.6 percentage points and go up from 19.8%. The JDU's vote share is also predicted to increase by 1.9 percentage points, contributing to the NDA's win. 

One interesting prediction is that the Jan Suraaj Party, which is just over a year old, will get a 9.7% vote share, one percentage point more than India's oldest political party, the Congress. The party is also estimated to surpass the 9.6% vote share that the Congress had managed to get in 2020, which had netted it 19 seats. 

Prashant Kishor's party, however, has been given a maximum of only five seats by Peoples Pulse, indicating that the vote share will not translate to wins in constituencies.