The 2015 Reunion Deconstructed: Lalu-Nitish Coalition That Won Bihar

A year before India went to the polls for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, a political heavyweight in Bihar quit the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Chief Minister Nitish Kumar walked out of NDA, ending his party, Janata Dal-United's, 17-year-old ties with the BJP. The reason? The impending anointment of the then Gujarat Chief Minister as the Prime Ministerial candidate of the BJP.

The JD(U)'s departure didn't change anything for the BJP-led alliance in the 2014 elections, but it left Nitish with limited options. A year later, Bihar would witness the political twists of decades. Nitish would join hands with Lalu Prasad Yadav, and the once good friends-turned-bitter rivals formed the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar. They defeated what looked like an invincible BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

A Historic Political Alliance

The 2015 election campaign saw PM Modi, Amit Shah, and other ministers crisscrossing the state in a high-stakes battle. Yet, the strategic social coalition, crafted by poll strategist Prashant Kishor and backed by Lalu and Nitish, proved unstoppable.

The Mahagathbandhan won 178 of 243 seats, leaving the BJP and its allies with only 58. The RJD captured 80 seats, the JD(U) 71, the BJP 53, and the Congress 27. Lalu, despite his conviction in the multi-crore fodder scam, wasn't just the kingmaker; he was the man in charge. He ensured his sons, Tejaswi Yadav and Tej Pratap Yadav, occupied key positions in government.

Pre-Election Scenes

The 2014 Lok Sabha election was a jolt for the JD(U). After a dismal performance, Nitish quit as Bihar Chief Minister, taking full responsibility for the loss. Jitan Ram Manjhi replaced him.

Only months later, Nitish returned to office on February 22, 2015. The numbers dwindled, the loyalists within the party appeared to wither away, and political isolation looked him in the eye.

Manjhi then formed his own party, Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and allied with the NDA.

The RJD faced internal conflict when Pappu Yadav challenged Lalu over leadership. He eventually formed his own Jan Adhikar Party (JAP) and joined the third front, but they failed to win any seats.

Bihar's Caste Calculus

Bihar's political story is wedded to caste. The Mahagathbandhan capitalised on a coalition of backward castes and Muslims.

Lalu Yadav's base, constituting around 14 per cent of the population, combined with Nitish's creation of EBC (Extremely Backward Castes) and Mahadalit constituencies, ensured a formidable social arithmetic in favour of the Grand Alliance.

In the 2015 elections, Biharis faced a choice: development (vikas) led by the NDA, or dignity and self-respect (sammaan/swabhimaan) promoted by the Mahagathbandhan.

Lalu and Nitish combined both in their campaign. Nitish focused on development, while Lalu spoke of caste pride and empowerment of backward communities.

Rabri Devi's rallies also amplified this message.

The NDA Challenge

The NDA, comprising BJP, LJP, RLSP, and HAM, sought to broaden its upper-caste base and target backward caste votes, deploying leaders like Jitan Ram Manjhi and Ram Vilas Paswan. Yet, despite PM Modi's heavy presence during campaigns, the Mahagathbandhan emerged triumphant.

After the elections, Nitish quickly focused on strengthening governance. He met officials to enforce the rule of law, and the cabinet approved a liquor ban starting in April 2016. The state also faced challenges, including Naxal attacks, a matriculation exam cheating scandal, and the theft of a 2,600-year-old Lord Mahavira idol.