2 Takeaways From NDA Bihar Plan: JDU-BJP Power Balance, Chirag Paswan Factor

The NDA has finally announced its seat sharing for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, and the formula it has come up with could mark a new political balance in the state. The division - 101 each for the BJP and Nitish Kumar's party, 29 for Chirag Paswan and six seats each for Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM and RLM of Upendra Kushwaha -- has two clear takeaways.

The first - Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United is no longer in the driving seat in the state. 

The formula that signalled the BJP gaining upper hand in 2024 -- the JDU contested 16 seats and the BJP 17 of the state's 40 Lok Sabha seats - appears to have crystallised for the state elections as well. 

The BJP has made it clear that they will no longer play the second fiddle and that it is preparing to achieve a leadership position in the next phase, while maintaining the balance of power for now.

The second big takeaway is the position of Chirag Paswan - Lok Janshakti Party chief and son of former Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan. This, sources said, is a clear signal from the BJP that it no longer wants to rely on Nitish Kumar in Bihar politics. 

Chirag Paswan is also bargaining from a strong position.

In the last election, the LJP (Ram Vilas) played spoiler for Nitish Kumar, causing significant losses to his Janata Dal United and costing him the upper hand in Bihar politics. 

The big seat share for Paswan is being seen as the next step for the BJP. By accommodating his political ambitions, the BJP has sent a significant political message - that it now wants to promote him as a Dalit face and a future resource.

Jitan Ram Manjhi's seats have been reduced, marking him as the victim of "adjustment politics". Manjhi's party, HAM, has been allotted only six seats this time - one less than 2020.

Political sources said Manjhi's seats were reduced solely to appease Chirag Paswan. The message is clear: The NDA's focus is now on providing a face to the state's Dalit leadership, and that face is Chirag Paswan, not Jitan Ram Manjhi.