India's Fertility Rate Drops Below Replacement Level for First Time, Reveals Government Report

India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen below the replacement level for the first time, marking a major demographic milestone for the country. According to the Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2024 released by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner under the Union Ministry of Home Affairs, the national TFR stood at 1.9 in 2024- below the replacement threshold of 2.1. The replacement level refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years to maintain a stable population across generations.

Bihar tops fertility chart, Delhi records lowest rate

While the national average indicates a slowdown in population growth, the report highlights stark regional contrasts. Bihar recorded the highest fertility rate in the country at 2.9, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 2.6, Madhya Pradesh at 2.4 and Rajasthan at 2.3 - the only major states still above the replacement level. In contrast, Delhi reported the country's lowest TFR at 1.2. Southern and western states continue to show significantly lower fertility rates. Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal each recorded a TFR of 1.3, while Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra and Punjab stood at 1.4. Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana each reported a TFR of 1.5.

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The report also underlined the persistent rural-urban divide. India's rural TFR remained higher at 2.1 compared to 1.5 in urban areas. This trend was visible across almost all major states and Union Territories, except Kerala, where urban fertility was marginally higher, and Tamil Nadu, where fertility rates remained identical in both rural and urban regions.

Sharp decline in fertility over five decades

India's fertility decline has been dramatic over the past five decades. The TFR dropped from 5.2 during 1971-1981 to 4.5, and further from 3.6 in 1991 to 1.9 in 2024. Rural fertility fell from 5.4 in 1971 to 2.1 in 2024, while urban fertility declined from 4.1 to 1.5 over the same period.

Among larger states and Union Territories, Delhi recorded the sharpest decline in fertility over the last decade, with a 29.4 per cent reduction between 2012-14 and 2022-24. Gujarat followed with a 25 per cent decline, while Tamil Nadu recorded a 23.5 per cent drop. Bihar saw the slowest decline at 9.4 per cent, followed by Chhattisgarh at 11.5 per cent, and Himachal Pradesh and Punjab at 11.8 per cent each.

General fertility rate also declines nationwide

The report also tracked changes in the General Fertility Rate (GFR), which measures births per 1,000 women aged 15-49. Nationally, the GFR fell by 12 per cent, from 78.8 during 2012-14 to 64.6 in 2022-24. Rural GFR declined from 86.2 to 71.9, while urban GFR dropped from 61.2 to 51.0.

Delhi again recorded the steepest decline in GFR at 29.9 per cent overall, with urban Delhi witnessing a sharper 35.6 per cent fall. Bihar remained the highest at 96 births per 1,000 women, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 83 and Rajasthan at 82.7. Bihar also became the only major state where urban fertility increased slightly over the decade, rising from 75.9 to 77.5.

Demographic divide between north and south widens

The findings point to a widening demographic divide between India's ageing southern states and its younger northern states. Kerala now has 15.1 per cent of its population aged 60 years and above, followed by Tamil Nadu at 14.2 per cent. Bihar, meanwhile, remains one of India's youngest states, with nearly one-third of its population below the age of 14.

The report highlighted significant disparities in child survival rates as well. Under-five mortality stood at 41 deaths per 1,000 live births in both Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, compared to just 9 in Kerala. Rural India recorded a higher under-five mortality rate of 32, against 19 in urban areas.

Early neonatal deaths continue to account for the majority of infant mortality in India. Around 52.7 per cent of infant deaths occurred within the first week of birth, while 72.8 per cent took place within the first 28 days.

Institutional deliveries rise, gaps in medical care remain

On the healthcare front, institutional deliveries have expanded sharply. In 2024, nearly 95.4 per cent of deliveries took place in healthcare institutions, including government and private hospitals. Urban areas recorded 97.9 per cent institutional deliveries, compared to 94.6 per cent in rural India. Government hospitals accounted for 71.7 per cent of all institutional births.

However, the report noted that access to medical care at the time of death remains uneven. Around 45.5 per cent of deaths in India occurred without qualified medical attention in 2024, with the figure rising to 48.9 per cent in rural areas. Only 40.2 per cent of deaths occurred in hospitals. Government hospitals accounted for 24.7 per cent of medically attended deaths, while private hospitals accounted for 15.5 per cent. Qualified professionals outside hospitals handled another 14.3 per cent.

Marriage patterns show social shifts

Marriage patterns across the country also reflected changing social trends. Nationally, 73.5 per cent of women married at the age of 21 or above in 2024, while 24.5 per cent married between 18 and 20 years. Only 2.1 per cent married before turning 18. Urban India showed later marriage patterns, with 82.2 per cent of women marrying after 21, compared to 70.2 per cent in rural areas. Delhi reported no marriages below the age of 18.

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Kerala recorded one of the country's lowest child marriage rates at just 0.04 per cent, with over 80 per cent of women marrying after 21. Tamil Nadu and Telangana showed similar trends, particularly in urban areas.

West Bengal, however, recorded the highest proportion of women marrying before 18 at 6.3 per cent. It was also the only major state where fewer than half of women married after the age of 21.

Concerns remain over sex ratio at birth

The report further revealed that India's sex ratio at birth stood at 918 girls per 1,000 boys between 2022 and 2024. Uttarakhand recorded the lowest ratio at 872, while Chhattisgarh and Kerala reported the highest figures at 978 and 974 respectively.

The findings reinforce growing concerns about uneven demographic transitions across India, with some states facing rapid ageing and shrinking fertility, while others continue to experience relatively high birth rates and weaker health outcomes.