Zerodha's Nithin Kamath Warns India Could "Grow Old Before Rich" As Fertility Rate Falls

India's declining fertility rate could leave the country facing an aging population before it achieves widespread economic prosperity, Zerodha co-founder Nithin Kamath has warned. Citing projections that every Indian state will fall below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman by 2039, Kamath said Bihar is expected to be the last state to cross that threshold.

In posts on X, Kamath pointed to data from Data For India showing a strong link between fertility, income, and education. He noted wealthier and more educated populations tend to have fewer children, while poorer and less educated communities generally have larger families.

Kamath said this trend is particularly significant in India because of the sharp economic divide between the country's more prosperous southern states and the less-developed northern states. With India's overall fertility rate already down to 1.9 births per woman, he questioned whether the country could end up growing old before it grows rich.

"There's also evidence suggesting that fertility rates are falling faster than most projections. This is a particular challenge for India, where there's still a vast gulf between the prosperous South and the poorer North. The ultimate question is, will we grow old before we grow rich?," he wrote.

See the tweet here:

By 2039, every Indian state will fall below the replacement fertility rate, with Bihar being the last to cross this milestone. The evidence shows that fertility is tightly linked to income and education. Poorer and less educated populations tend to have more children and vice… pic.twitter.com/HZkWgka12R

— Nithin Kamath (@Nithin0dha) July 13, 2026

What is the replacement fertility rate?

The replacement fertility rate, typically estimated at 2.1 children per woman, is the average number of births needed for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next without relying on immigration. When fertility remains below that level for an extended period, populations tend to age and may eventually begin to shrink.

Kamath's remarks echo concerns raised by economists and business leaders worldwide about the economic impact of falling birth rates and aging populations. In June, Elon Musk also highlighted the trend, noting that India's birth rate had dropped below the replacement level and that fertility among the country's most educated population had been below that mark for years.