(Swapan Dasgupta is a Delhi-based political commentator with avowedly right-wing inclinations)Now that most parties have completed naming their candidates-causing the usual degree of heart-burns and smug self-satisfaction-the general election of 2014 is approaching the last mile.
At this stage of the contest, certain broad observations are in order:
- The National Democratic Alliance, replenished by the addition of many minor parties in Bihar and Tamil Nadu and (possibly) the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh has maintained its clear lead over the Congress-led UPA. All the indications are that the BJP may well record its best election result ever and may cross 200 seats on its own.
- The Congress has abandoned all hopes of leading the next government. Despite what Rahul Gandhi maintains, the party is struggling to cross the 100 mark.
- Of the regional parties, the AIADMK of J.Jayalalithaa, the Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjeee, the YSR Congress of Jagan Mohan Reddy, and the BJD of Naveen Patnaik seem in good nick in their respective states. Together, their numbers in the next Lok Sabha will exceed that of the Congress.
- The Left is struggling to maintain a meaningful presence in the next Lok Sabha.
- The Aam Aadmi Party, despite getting a disproportionate share of media coverage, is still a phenomenon confined to the National Capital Region. Its ability to win more than six seats and be a factor in more than 20 seats is in doubt.
- There is no pre-election Third Front.
Since conventional wisdom holds that the NDA is now in sniffing distance of between 235 and 240 seats, the big question is: will this figure rise or contract in the coming days? The answer has a direct bearing on the stability of the government and determining how much elbow room the next Prime Minister will have.
Past experience with elections suggest that a "wave" is only grasped in hindsight and rarely at the moment of occurrence.
A casual perusal of the newspaper archives will suggest that despite formidable anecdotal evidence the pundits refused to believe that Indira Gandhi would be swept off her feet by the anti-Emergency typhoon of 1977. It was then said that a "chastened" Indira would be sworn-in after the election.
Even in 1984 when Rajiv Gandhi won the most impressive majority in post-Independence history, there was a belief that the election would be decided by the usual caste and community calculations. I still recall MJ Akbar in
The Telegraph suggesting that while Amitabh Bachchan was entertaining the electors of Allahabad, he would get pasted by HN Bahuguna.
Invoking the past is important because the chatter in the newsrooms is about Jaswant Singh's rebellion, the dissatisfaction of the Brahmins and the dodgy selection of BJP candidates in Haryana. None of these are totally insignificant. But the larger question is: can local hiccups derail a larger, national trend?
That seems quite unlikely. The larger narrative has, over the weeks, shifted quite effortlessly from Congress versus Modi and Rahul versus Modi to a dissection of Modi. In other words, as we approach the last mile the paramount issue of this election is Modi.
For the Gujarat Chief Minister this is wonderful news. In the past, Modi has excelled when he has become the issue. More than anything else, this personality-based preoccupation allows him to address the one remaining question in the minds of the pundits: has he peaked prematurely?
Those who observed the quantum of the crowds at the Modi rally in Nanded (Maharashtra), a traditional Congress bastion may be forced to rethink. At the risk of being proved horribly wrong, I would suggest that, far from peaking, Modi is now the beneficiary of a bandwagon effect. Those sitting on the sidelines in constituencies where the BJP has a footfall are now inching to back a likely winner.
Are we seeing the first signs of a lead being transformed into outright victory?
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