Sensex ends points lower at 104.35, Nifty settles 31.65 points down

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

Crypto markets are in a range recovery after Bitcoin's drop toward the low-$61,000 area. The move followed selling pressure after Strategy disclosed the sale of 3,588 BTC worth about $216 million, showing that treasury flows can still affect spot sentiment. BTC has moved back near $63,000, but the technical setup needs confirmation. A 4-hour close above $64,000-$64,300 would improve the structure, while a break below $62,000 can bring $61,000 back into focus. Ethereum looks stronger than Bitcoin on the short-term chart as it holds above its key 4-hour EMA cluster, but continuation needs a move above $1,820-$1,850. Altcoin participation remains selective, so this is not yet a broad risk-on rotation. Gold has eased as markets wait for Fed minutes and rate signals. In equities, U.S. indices remain supported by AI and semiconductor names, even as broader market breadth stays uneven. The next trigger for crypto will likely come from ETF flows, the dollar, oil, Fed commentary, or geopolitical headlines.

Akshat Siddhant, Lead Quant Analyst, Mudrex

Gold prices eased on Tuesday after reaching a two-week high in the previous session, as investors turned cautious ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh. The minutes are expected to provide fresh clues on the Fed's policy outlook and the path of interest rates. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has eased concerns over oil-driven inflation, reducing some of gold's safe-haven appeal. If the Fed signals a more dovish stance, gold could extend its rally toward the $4,300 level. However, a hawkish tone may trigger profit booking, with $4,000 likely to act as the key support zone.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 extended its winning streak on Monday, advancing 159 points, or 0.66%, to close at 24,430, supported by broad-based buying across banking, auto, realty and metal stocks, which offset continued weakness in the IT pack. HDFC Bank emerged as the key driver, rallying more than 3.5% following a robust Q1 business update and helping both the Nifty and Bank Nifty register a fourth consecutive session of gains.

Global cues were constructive overnight, with Wall Street scaling fresh record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above the 53,000 mark for the first time at 53,056, while the S&P 500 gained 0.72% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.12%, led by renewed strength in semiconductor stocks.

However, optimism moderated across Asian markets this morning as profit booking in technology shares and renewed concerns over Gulf shipping disruptions weighed on sentiment. South Korea's Kospi declined more than 4%, while Japan's Nikkei slipped below the 70,000 mark. On the macro front, Brent crude remained below $72 per barrel after OPEC+ approved an additional 188,000 barrels per day production increase for August, a positive development for India as it helps contain imported inflation.

Meanwhile, GIFT Nifty was trading around 24,570, indicating a mildly positive start.

From a technical perspective, the undertone remains cautiously optimistic ahead of the weekly expiry. The 24,500 zone continues to act as an immediate hurdle, while 24,300 remains a crucial support level. A sustained move below 24,300 could trigger profit booking towards 24,150. However, easing crude prices, resilient domestic liquidity and supportive global cues are likely to cushion downside risks, with a decisive breakout above 24,500 opening the path towards the 24,650-24,750 zone in the near term.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin traded near $63,800 on July 7, holding above the $63,000 mark after recovering from late-June weakness. CoinMarketCap showed BTC at about $63,786, up 0.62% over 24 hours, with daily trading volume near $35.9 billion. The rebound has improved short-term sentiment, but it is still too early to call it a decisive trend reversal.

Technically, Bitcoin's immediate support lies around $62,600, followed by the important $60,000 zone. A break below this range could invite renewed selling pressure. On the upside, BTC faces resistance around $65,000-$67,000. A daily close above this band would strengthen the recovery case, while failure to clear it may keep the asset range-bound.

On-chain data presents a mixed picture. CoinDesk, citing Glassnode, reported that long-term holders have returned to net accumulation. On a net basis, they have accumulated roughly 50,000-100,000 BTC. Smaller wallets and mid-sized holders appear to be leading the dip-buying, while the largest whale cohort remains closer to neutral. Separately,CryptoQuant data, cited by The Block, showed a sharp rise in Bitcoin exchange deposits near the end of June. This is a signal that often precedes higher market volatility.

ETF flows remain a key swing factor. Farside Investors' latest Bitcoin ETF table showed individual fund flows for July 6. These flows added up to roughly $112.6 million in net inflows. However, the official net total had not yet been published on the table. July 7 ETF data was not final yet.

Macro remains important for crypto. Reuters reported that Fed Governor Christopher Waller sees high inflation as the Fed's biggest risk. Traders are assigning roughly a one-in-four chance of a July rate hike. Markets also expect interest rates to rise by September.The July 14 US CPI print and July 28-29 FOMC meeting will therefore be closely watched.

Among major altcoins, Ethereum traded near $1,793, BNB around $582, XRP near $1.14, Solana around $81.80, and TRON near $0.329. Gains remain selective, suggesting investors are cautious despite Bitcoin's stabilisation.

Our advice: Bitcoin's recovery above $63,000 is constructive, but the market is not yet out of the woods. The next confirmation will come only if BTC sustains a move above the $65,000-$67,000 resistance zone, supported by stronger ETF inflows and softer macro signals. Until then, rallies may continue to face selling pressure near resistance. Investors should avoid chasing sharp intraday moves. Instead, they should focus on disciplined accumulation near key support levels. The $62,600 and $60,000 zones remain important areas to watch. Position sizes should also be kept under control ahead of the U.S. CPI release and the July FOMC meeting.

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX

Bitcoin is trading near $64.3K, up 1.3%, with technical indicators improving as buying interest returns following recent volatility. Market data also shows Bitcoin's realized profit-to-loss ratio has fallen to a 43-month low, a level historically associated with periods of market stabilization.

Ethereum is trading around $1,813, up 1.58%, supported by stronger network activity. The network continues to host nearly $153 billion in stablecoin supply, while sustained ETH withdrawals from exchanges suggest lower near-term selling pressure.

Beyond price action, regulatory developments remained active. Ripple secured a full MiCA license in Luxembourg, expanding regulated crypto services across the European Economic Area. Bangladesh's inflation eased to 9.16% in June from 9.42% in May, reflecting moderating price pressures and potentially influencing regional crypto adoption and stablecoin demand.

Institutional adoption also continued to advance. Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, is preparing to launch a crypto wallet, highlighting the growing role of traditional financial institutions in expanding digital asset services.

Harish Vatnani, Head of Trade, ZebPay