Ahmedabad:
In August, Narendra Modi seemed a trifle embattled. A lacklustre monsoon, farmer suicides, ministers embroiled in financial scams - for the first time in his decade-long rule in Gujarat, the Chief Minister was feeling the pressure.
But come September, as he announced his Vivekanand
yuva vikas yatra, neatly appropriating the legacy of the nationalist leader, Mr Modi had put behind him all disadvantages of the month before. He then set off criss crossing the length and breadth of the state showcasing his "Vibrant Gujarat". The message was lost on none - Narendra Modi was still a crowd puller.
Four months later, as the Gujarat Chief Minister reaches the fag end of his second round of campaigning, the biggest question being asked is - will that charisma continue to translate into votes for the BJP? Surveys and analysts predict yet another victory for man who has adroitly changed his image from "Hindu
hridya samrat (King of Hindu hearts) to development role model. At stake are bigger ambitions - Mr Modi reckons another impressive victory could propel him to the national centrestage. But is the road to Delhi a smooth one?
The situation in 2012 is very different from what it was in 2002 and 2007.
A polarized post-riots Gujarat in 2002 saw Modi winning hands down. By 2007 Modi had begun constructing his new avatar, that of able administrator. But Congress president Sonia Gandhi calling him a "merchant of death" in South Gujarat and the campaign was sharply polarised again. But 2012 is without any emotive issue. The Congress has managed to keep the election battle low profile, avoiding another
maut ka saudagar mistake. That has forced Mr Modi to keep his campaign confined to development as the key agenda.
Does that suit Narendra Modi? "Not at all," says political commentator Dinesh Shukl, adding, "His political existence and shrill rhetoric is what makes him an unstoppable leader. But this time there seems to be no emotive issue. The developmental plank can't excite voters to a decisive point.''
Modi, the master strategist, realises that. And so, analysts say, he has attempted to add another element to his electioneering this time, projecting this as a Delhi vs Gujarat battle. Also a personality battle - Modi versus Sonia Gandhi and Modi vs Manmohan Singh. "By taking the battle to a new level, he is sending a very subtle message to the electorate. He may not concede his national ambitions but when he talks about the Delhi vs Gujarat battle, he is sending out a message. A message that here is someone from the Gujarat leadership who can be a national contender for the throne in Delhi. He aims to encash on that Gujarati psyche that after Morarji Desai here is a man from Gujarat who can be a prime minister," disclosed a senior BJP leader.
If that's the case, 2012 will, in a way, establish what connects Modi to six crore Gujaratis. If he wins yet again it clearly establishes that even without a polarized vote, Mr Modi can win based on a campaign revolving around development and on the Modi vs the Delhi sultanate theme.
But this road is not without potholes. Though pre-poll survey and pundits say former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel is unlikely to do much damage to Mr Modi, the K factor, as it's is called in these parts, could play spoiler at least in the politically critical Saurashtra region that votes today. The BJP had won a majority of the 52 seats in the region last time, but this time Keshubhai's breakaway Gujarat Parivartan Party could play a role in which way over a dozen seats. "After all he represents the all-powerful Patel community, which is a sizeable chunk of the electorate. But the basic problem with Keshubhai would be age and an absence of an organizational structure," remarked analyst Vishnu Pandya. Mr Patel is 84 years old and set up his new party only this year in defiance of Mr Modi.
Observers believe that Mr Modi senses trouble in the Saurashtra region, and that perhaps is a reason why he is looking to other regions to offset any losses in Saurashtra. "Central Gujarat is where he is looking at. Focussing hard there," Mr Pandya points out. In 2002, riding on the post-Godhra wave Mr Modi had swept the central Gujarat region winning as many as 38 seats. But in 2007, the party lost 20 seats to the Congress. "This is the chunk of about 20 seats which he would be looking at getting back. To reclaim the tribal vote bank in the area to negate the Saurashtra losses, if any," says Mr Pandya.
Winning big is important to Mr Modi. For how Gujarat votes will decide the roadmap to power politics in Delhi.