'Long On Words, Short On Risk': Decoding China's Silence On Iran War

Within months, US President Donald Trump has targeted two of China's closest allies -- Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Criticising the US-backed Israeli strikes on Iran, China has strongly condemned the assassination of Khamenei, calling the move "a grave violation of Iran's sovereignty and security."

But many say Beijing has done little more than look on as the situation changes in West Asia for the worse.

Experts have suggested that Iran ranks low on Chinese leader Xi Jinping's top priorities, which include the stability of China's relations with the US.

"China is a fair-weather friend - long on words, short on risk... Beijing will speak up at the United Nations but steer clear of providing any significant support to Tehran," CNN quoted Craig Singleton, senior director for China at the Washington, DC-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, as saying.

The latest wave of violence began after the US and Israel carried out strikes on Iran on February 28, killing Khamenei and multiple other senior-ranking officials.

China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, but Tehran's strategic importance to Beijing appears to be far more limited.

The CNN report highlights that military cooperation between the two countries has remained constrained, while trade and investment flows are eclipsed by those with several Gulf states.

William Yang, senior analyst at Belgium-based think tank International Crisis Group, told the publication that China "sees no benefit in heightening tension with the US over Iran".

"It still attaches greater importance to maintaining the trade truce and overall stability in the bilateral relationship with the US, so it will not want to jeopardise the positive momentum that it has built with the Trump administration over the last year," the report quoted Yang as saying.

Iran has looked up to China for diplomatic and economic support for a long time. Beijing has even denounced the "unilateral" US sanctions imposed on Iran, besides extending support to Tehran's insistence that its nuclear program is peaceful.

It has even helped Iran in elevating its global standing by bringing it into several groupings, such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Companies in China have also supplied chemicals utilised in Iran's missile program and helped them build the domestic surveillance infrastructure.

While maintaining that its trade with Iran complies with international law, China has consistently stayed clear of being directly involved in its partners' conflicts.

"China has long avoided presenting itself as a security guarantor to Global South countries too, as the US involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq serves as cautionary tales that deter Beijing from pursuing such an ambition," Yang said.

In 2023, China even played a major role in brokering a rapprochement between Iran and its rival Saudi Arabia.

Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, said that Iran has been a "longtime partner" of China, "but it is far away and not existential or perhaps even critical to the PRC (People's Republic of China)".

"Others who work with or wish to work with the PRC on security issues may rightly ask if Beijing will abandon them, especially if they are far away from the PRC - as in the case of Iran and Venezuela earlier," he added.