The United States started voting on Tuesday to elect its new President. The election is seen by many as a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The result forecasts have given a clear edge to Joe Biden. However, Mr Trump has rejected the forecasts, arguing that poll pundits had written him off in 2016 but he managed to defeat his Democrat opponent, Hillary Clinton. On the show, Prannoy Roy discusses the poll projections, electoral equations and the possibility of a 2016-like upset.
Here are the highlights of Dr Roy's analysis of the US Presidential Election:
Iran Oil For India Again?
- The Indo-US relations are strong and will continue. Biden and Harris will be more vocal on human rights, CAA, NRC and Kashmir.
- The fundamental relation is strong.
- Trump has weakened his own alliances - like the NATO. He has offered to buy countries.
- Biden has criticised human right violations in China - in Xinjiang, Hong Kong. He has also called Xi Jinping a thug.
- Iran is important for India not just for oil but also Chabahar - the gateway to Afghanistan.
Impact Of Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris insisted that she has grown in the African American community. She has gone to Harvard. Did the Trump campaign reach out to Shallabh Kumar for the Indian community? No active campaigning happened and very little money was given to Trump. But the Biden campaign reached out.
Donald Trump - PM Modi Relations
Donald Trump has made the relations (with PM Modi) personal. I have no reason to believe that Mr Biden is unfriendly. But Mr Trump is very unpredictable.
Human Rights, Kashmir, Freedom of Press
The major foreign policy issue of the US with India is on China. Much depends on moves made by China. In the short term, Donald Trump victory will be advantageous while Biden victory will work in the long-run.
US Troops Withdrawal From Afghanistan And The Rise Of Taliban: Impact On India
Shallabh Kumar: I don't quite agree with the President on troops withdrawal. Mr Trump has delivered on all promises made with respect to India. On two issues, Mr Biden is slightly better - H-1B and immigration. Mr Biden talks about illegal immigration. Mr Biden will be a little better on these issues.
India-US Trade, H1-B VisasMinakshi Ahamed
There will be a change because in many ways the Modi government has appreciated the fact they could continue the domestic agenda without interference. Mr Biden was instrumental in getting nuclear deal through the Congress. What Mr Bush was trying to do was set up partnership with India. Joe Biden grasped that and got on board. He led the Senate, who were the Ayatollah of non-proliferation. So Joe Biden was a great friend to India.
The strategic trajectory of the Indo-US relation will remain unchanged. There is an increasing convergence of the two countries in the Indo-Pacific region because of China.
Donald Trump has been aggressive and unilateralist on the trade side, imposing punitive tariff on China, sending ministerial person to Taiwan. Joe Biden said he would like to work with allies to put pressure on China rather than move unilaterally.
Mira Shankar: That was an America which was thinking it was evolving into post-racial society with the election of Barack Obama. There was hope, expectation. He had inherited wars overseas and a financial crisis; unemployment rates of 10%, needing a bailout. The sense of crisis is the same but the element of hope has been belied as is the sense that the US has put behind its racial past.
Which states Joe Biden has win to become the President of the United States What states Donald Trump has to win to retain his presidency
To win, he has to win all 20 safe Republican states and two swing states.
Swing states are on the peripheries.
The states in the mid-west vote for the Republicans.
Dr Roy: The Democrats' states are predominantly on the East and West Coast - solid support.
Dr Roy: The US can be divided into four kinds of states.
Neha Dewan: Donald Trump just called India filthy on National TV. He suspended H1B - traditional way for Indians to come here. Photo-ops don't help the community. He is allied with dictators and fought with out traditional allies.
- People come here because of opportunities. Kamala Harris never identified herself as an Indian American. Never showed up at the first event. She was more about African Americans.
- Donald Trump has had a very successful term. We saw high GDP numbers.
- We don't want to leave anything to chance. It is not over yet. Millions are still voting. Cannot take a chance.
- We have seen unprecedented number of voters. People are taking this a lot more seriously. Work isn't over till the votes close. People are taking their civic duties seriously.
Dorab Sopariwala: Donald Trump has gone against every single Republican policy. He is not a Republican or a Democrat - he's Trump.
- This is an election where the entire world is watching what will happen in the next 24-48 hours.
- Donald Trump has undermined a host of bodies: IMF, WHO, Trade pacts. This election will have huge repercussions.
- Joe Biden will be more vocal about Human Rights issues.
Joe Biden Still Wins If 2020 Poll Has Exactly Same Error As 2016 What happens if polls are underestimating Trump support
Steve Jarding: We have a leader that doesn't believe in democracy, but believes in autocracy. He believes he is above the law. The high voter turnout (highest in 126 years) is a response to Donald Trump. We have a president who assaulted democracy, constitution. Trump is trying to rig elections, no one else is.
In 2016, US was divided and polarised. Hillary's voters were not fired up. In 2020, Democrats are totally fired up about getting rid of Trump. We didn't have that in 2016.
US Democracy is going through some fundamental changes. Tonight will say something. If Trump wins, I will say there's something wrong with the US democracy. And if he is removed, I would say the US democracy is moving in the right way.
IP Bajpai: Texas already has a higher turnout. Normally high turnout means, voting to change. In places like Miami, the Republicans have turned out in greater numbers than Democrats. 5% of the voters, who weren't saying anything till about 3-4 weeks back, said they will vote republican - that is the shy voter to me.
Dorab Sopariwala: Over the last 6-8 months, Joe Biden has maintained a very consistent lead. Shy voters exist all over the country. There's more solid ground to believe the polls than the last time. The lead is way too much. Can you imagine someone winning by 10 million votes? I have more faith in poles than last time.
Donald Trump does better than polls forecast
How Donald Trump performed in 2016 presidential elections.
Pollster's Assessment: 2016 vs 2020
In 2016, fivethirtyeight.com had predicted 70% winning chance for Hillary Clinton. This time, they have given a whopping 90 per cent chance of a win to the Democrat candidate.
The US Election 2020 Is Not Like 2016
Joe Biden's projected victory margin is much more than what was predicted in 2016.
What's the margin of Joe Biden's lead over Donald Trump?
Polls forecasts say Joe Biden leads over Donald Trump. The margin of victory, according to the forecasts, could be 8.4 per cent.
US Election: What does polls forecasting say?
Polls forecasts give a clear edge to Joe Biden
This election is a first where leaders have lied and news outlets have gone on a fact-check spree.
Opinion polls say voters hate Trump more than they like Biden. The more educated White voters will vote for Biden while the lesser educated ones for Trump.
Dr Roy: This election is more polarised than ever before. Never heard people say: Do go out and vote because your vote can save America.