36 Hours, 3,000 Guided Munitions: How US-Israel Rained Fire On Iran

The first 36 hours of the US and Israeli attack against Iran used over 3,000 precision-guided munitions and interceptors, according to a new analysis. It underscores a critical vulnerability in the supply chain when it comes to replenishing munition stockpiles.

Using a proprietary Payne Institute open-source ledger and data-scraper tool, Foreign Policy estimated that Iran launched over 1,000 munitions across the region during the first 36 hours of the conflict, prompting several intercept attempts by Israeli, US, and allied forces. 

These interceptions have largely been successful but also costly. The need to build such munitions, and the minerals required in the process, remains a problem for the West, especially the US. 

Use Of Munitions In The First 36 Hours Of The Iran War

The US used an estimated 250 GBU-31/32/38 JDAM missiles alone, as per analysis by Foreign Policy. The United States also utilised around 120 Tomahawk missiles, 60 AGM-114 Hellfire (MQ-9 Reaper) missiles and 10 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators in the first 36 hours of Operation Epic Fury. The country also used 90 Patriot PAC-2/PAC-3 and 180 SM-2/SM-3/SM-6 (Navy Aegis) missiles for its defensive capabilities. 

The Israeli offensive relied on around 280 Spice-2000/1000 guided bombs, 70 Rampage supersonic missiles, 140 Israeli JDAM/smart bomb kits, 50 Delilah cruise/loitering missiles, and other weapons. The Tamir interceptor missile formed the base of their defensive capabilities. As for US allies, the Patriot PAC-3 was mostly used for defensive purposes. 

The United States relied on a familiar mix for the initial hours of the conflict: standoff strike missiles for early waves, ground-launched rockets for time-sensitive targets, suppression weapons against radars, and large volumes of precision-guided bombs. Israel's arsenal shows a preference for large runs of guidance kits and air-launched munitions that can be manufactured in quantity, linked to aircraft that can generate relentless sortie rates.

The extended use of these munitions will put increased pressure on supply chains. Using interceptors and missiles at a rate that outpaces replenishment may become an issue, as even simple munitions depend on complex chains.

For example, modern guidance kits are dependent on high-performance components made from rare earths, a sector dominated by China. While Western defense industries can award orders or funding quickly, the production capacity, qualified tooling and trained labour to create these weapons cannot be increased overnight.

It will take years to manufacture some weapons. For example, Raytheon may take five to eight years to build a new AN/FPS-132 radar at a cost of $1.1 billion.

Lockheed Martin will need at least 12 to 24 months to replace the AN/TPS-59 for an estimated $50 million-$75 million, based on the original Bahrain Foreign Military Sales contract adjusted for inflation. The biggest issue will be sourcing the 77.3 kgs of gallium needed for both systems, as China controls 98 per cent of the global supply of the rare earth. 

The Gulf Allies may already be facing shortages. Two sources told CNN that at least one of the United States' Gulf allies is running low on crucial interceptor munitions used to defend against Iranian drone and missile attacks.

Before the war began, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and other military leaders cautioned US President Trump that a long military campaign could impact US weapons stockpiles, especially those that support Israel and Ukraine, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter told the American outlet.

Trump, though, has dismissed concerns. 

In a Truth Social post on Monday night, Trump appeared to mitigate concerns over dwindling munition stockpiles. He said that munitions stockpiles “at the medium and upper medium grade” have “never been higher or better” in the US, adding that the country has a “virtually unlimited supply of these weapons.”

Trump has doubled down on foreign interventions in countries. Recently, he indicated that Cuba could be the next after Iran.