G-Zero World Is Here: Ian Bremmer To NDTV In Davos Warning

At Davos, Ian Bremmer painted a bleak picture of a world drifting away from order and into uncertainty. In an interview with NDTV's Vishnu Som, the President of Eurasia Group said the United States is stepping back from global leadership, NATO is on thin ice, Iran is nearing open conflict with Washington, Trump's foreign policy is shaped more by ego than strategy, and India is quietly rising by refusing to play by America's rules. From the Middle East to the Arctic to South Asia, Bremmer warned of a vacuum no one is ready to fill.

India Stands Firm and Moves into TACO Territory
India is no longer on the fool around and find out side of global power. According to Bremmer, it now sits in what he calls the TACO spectrum, short for Trump Always Chickens Out. These are countries strong enough to push back because they know the United States, especially under Trump, folds when challenged.

"India is more on the TACO scale," Bremmer said. He described a global spectrum where FAFO includes countries like Venezuela and Ukraine that suffer when defying stronger powers, while TACO countries like Russia, China, and now India act on their own terms.

"Trump always chickens out when challenged by real strength. And Prime Minister Modi knows that. He has been in power for over a decade and he is likely to outlast Trump. India is growing at seven to eight percent this year so trade ties with the United States are not critical. It is not going to break India the way it could Canada or the Europeans."

"It is not urgent for Modi to respond to Trump in the way he wants," Bremmer added.

Trump, Greenland, and the Presidency of Ego
Bremmer questioned Trump's obsession with Greenland and his habit of naming things after himself.

"Why does Trump want Greenland? Why does Trump want the Kennedy Center to be called the Trump Kennedy Center? Why is he so desperate to have a Nobel Peace Prize?"

"Even on things he does not own, he wants them to be named Trump. He gains some benefit from that. I would not feel any particular growth in self-worth from having my name on something I did not do anything for. But Trump does."

Bremmer said no one in the administration has a good reason for needing to own Greenland for U.S. security. The Danish Prime Minister, who he knows well, has offered to negotiate on all American concerns. The U.S. has refused. "This is something more existential for Trump involving his own personal ego. And when the interests of the president as a person become different from the interests of a country, you have a real problem."

Is NATO at Risk of Collapse?
"If Trump persists on this path, it will be the end of NATO," Bremmer said. "Europeans now feel like they cannot trust their critical ally." While Trump has previously walked back reckless remarks, like calling Canada the fifty first state, Bremmer called this a truly stupid thing.

"It is very unpopular in the United States. Americans do not know why the U.S. should want Greenland. Redlanders and bluelanders in the U.S. matter more to Trump than Greenlanders."

Part of the problem, he added, is that Trump is convinced he is right and advisers around him are too afraid to challenge him. "That can get you into trouble."

Iran and the Road to Confrontation
On Iran, Bremmer warned the region is far from stable. Supreme Leader Khamenei, he said, has refused to offer meaningful concessions on ballistic missiles, uranium enrichment, inspections, or proxy support.

"I do think that the likelihood of U.S. military intervention directly in Iran is going way up," Bremmer said. Once U.S. forces are in place to defend troops and Israel, the risk of conflict increases. But even if a decapitation strike happens, he said, that does not mean the regime collapses.

"You basically just had a decapitation strike in Venezuela. It is the same regime in place." In Iran, he added, "I do not yet see a road for democracy. I still think the regime will be repressive."

Thousands of unarmed Iranian civilians have been killed before, and Bremmer warned it could happen again. "This is a brutal and repressive regime that most of us are with or without Khamenei. You still have the Revolutionary Guards. You still have the Basij. It is a well paid, well trained group that is very comfortable using repression to maintain power."

A G Zero World in Full View
None of this, Bremmer said, is driven by China rising. Instead, it is about the United States stepping back. "The United States is saying it no longer wants to provide the leadership it has provided for decades, particularly since the collapse of the Soviet Union."

This is what Bremmer calls the G Zero world. The Americans are unwilling, and no other country or group is both willing and capable of taking their place.