China's multibillion-dollar expansion across Africa, stretching into more than 50 countries under the Belt and Road Initiative, has entered its most volatile phase. What Beijing once promoted as a strategy of “stability through development” is now crashing into one of the world's fastest-growing insurgencies. Chinese nationals are increasingly appearing in militia hostage videos, and state-owned firms have become key targets in conflict zones once considered manageable.
In Niger, Chinese engineers on the $4.6 billion pipeline to Benin were evacuated under armed escort after the Patriotic Liberation Front (FPL) bombed a pumping station, halting exports soon after the project's launch. By May, Chinese hostages surfaced in jihadist videos from areas previously seen as secure.
The Sahel region now accounts for more than half of global terrorism deaths. The 2025 Global Terrorism Index recorded 4,794 deaths in 2024, nearly ten times the 2019 figure. With France and the US pulling back, China filled the gap with an “economics first” approach, announcing $51 billion in new funding at the 2024 FOCAC summit. But militant attacks have grown alongside investment.
Niger, key to China's regional strategy, has become a flashpoint. After the 2023 coup, militant attacks rose sharply, and armed groups began striking infrastructure. Chinese engineers were kidnapped near Diffa and Gao, and Niger's junta expelled Chinese state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) executives over labour and tax disputes worth more than $500 million.
In Mali, jihadists have turned the region around the $250 million Goulamina lithium project into a conflict corridor. Convoys have been raided, mining sites seized, and Chinese staff abducted, forcing the embassy in Bamako to suspend operations. Even $136 million in Chinese military aid has not reversed the deterioration.
Burkina Faso is now one of the world's most dangerous countries, recording 1,532 terror-related deaths in 2024. China's solar and construction projects sit behind militant lines as anti-foreign sentiment grows.
China's Global Security Initiative promises training and support, but critics argue Beijing is becoming tied to juntas accused of abuses. A 2025 Shanghai report warned that Chinese firms now operate in “hybrid conflict” zones, risking long-term reputational damage.
With violence spilling toward coastal states, China is weighing new military support sites in Central Africa, a sensitive move for a country that long criticised Western bases. Its Djibouti base cannot stabilise the Sahel, and China has quietly withdrawn citizens while expanding private security.
The Sahel has become a critical test of Beijing's global ambitions. Development alone cannot solve deep political and ethnic conflicts, yet China's non-interference policy limits its options. Partners that once welcomed Chinese investment are now threatening to renegotiate deals or seize assets as security collapses.
