China Keeps Up Suspense Over Xi's India Visit 48 Hours Ahead Of BRICS Summit

With less than 48 hours until the BRICS summit in New Delhi, China has kept the suspense high over President Xi Jinping's much-anticipated visit to New Delhi. Beijing is yet to confirm his visit, and there is no word on whether he will have a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

When asked about the president's plans, China's foreign ministry told news agency AFP that they "don't have any official information" regarding the plans. 

If Xi finally decides to participate in the annual summit, it will be his first trip to India in seven years and a showcase for attempts to set aside disagreements to project a strong front while the US is mired in conflict with Iran.

India-China Ties

China and India fought a brief war in 1962, setting the backdrop for a wary relationship since then, which soured after a 2020 border clash in the Galwan Valley that killed 20 Indian and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers. 

Still, ties have improved in recent years, especially since PM Modi visited China last year and as both nations grapple with volatile relationships with the US. New Delhi has since then eased some of the restrictions on Chinese investment that it imposed following the 2020 clashes, focusing on electronics, capital goods, and solar cell sectors. 

It is also considering faster approvals for joint ventures between Indian and Chinese firms in some industries.

China's foreign ministry told Reuters that Xi and PM Modi, who briefly met this month at a regional forum in Kyrgyzstan, think the two countries are "partners, not competitors, and they represent opportunities, not threats, for each other's development".

Sources told news agency Reuters that Chinese companies' proposed investments in India are facing more scrutiny from Beijing itself, including in sectors where sophisticated manufacturing and high-end technology may be involved.

Despite that, the bilateral trade between the two nations last year rose 12.4 per cent to a record $155 billion, more than double the $71.6 billion reported 10 years earlier, according to Chinese customs data. 

In the first seven months of this year, trade further jumped a 23 per cent compared with the same period a year ago.

The Trust Deficit

Analysts have also pointed out that businesses in both countries continue to face hurdles, including investments stalled by regulations, visa delays, and restrictions on industrial equipment, underlining the gap between diplomatic progress and economic ties.

The potential meeting between Xi and PM Modi will be crucial to set the future direction of bilateral ties, they said. 

Lin Minwang, a South Asia expert with Shanghai's Fudan University and former diplomat at the Chinese Embassy in New Delhi, Reuters that China certainly wants to improve ties, but "we are waiting to see to what extent India is actually willing to improve them." 

Minwang suggested any dramatic progress was unlikely.

Harsh Pant, vice president at New Delhi's Observer Research Foundation think tank, also noted that the "trust deficit" between the countries was high.

"China has economic heft and there is a good opportunity to use that and emerge as a reliable partner, especially when both nations are impacted by America's trade policies," he told Reuters.