The Congress' Karnataka headache just won't go away.
DK Shivakumar's bid to force it into replacing Siddaramaiah as Chief Minister has roiled the ruling party for weeks now, fuelled by claims and veiled warnings from MLAs loyal to DKS.
Those grumblings seemed to have been shut down, at least partially, after party troubleshooter Randeep Singh Surjewala's visit to Benglauru this month, during which he drew sulky 'don't want MLAs to bat for me' and 'what option do I have' statements from the Deputy Chief Minister.
But the Congress now faces renewed pressure - this time from religious leaders from the Lingayat community - to give sack Siddaramaiah and replace the party veteran with DKS.
Shaila Jagadguru, a Lingayat religious leader from Balehonnur in Chikkamagaluru district, referred to the 'deal' the Congress reportedly made with Siddaramaiah and DKS after the 2023 election - that each would rule for 2.5 years - and said the party should honour the agreement.
"We don't have information on what kind of agreement was made during the formation of the government. Without knowing the details, it is not appropriate to comment. But, if there was an agreement, the party's high command should honour it accordingly," he said in Bagalkote.
NDTV Explains | Siddaramaiah vs DKS Is Not New. What Happened In 2023?
Sheila Jagadguru isn't the only religious figure from the Lingayat community to back Shivakumar, a fact his camp has interpreted as widespread support for his bid.
Last week another prominent sect leader - Rajadeshikendra Shivacharya, who heads the Rambapuri math - openly endorsed Shivakumar in the chief ministerial squabble. "He should have got a higher position after the last election... may he get a higher position (soon)," he said.
DKS has also been backed by the Vokkaligas, but that is not surprising given he is a member of that community. Support from the Lingayats, however, could be critical in winning this battle.
The Vokkaliga and the Lingayats are the dominant communities in Karnataka.
Back in 2018 the Lingayats were happy to back Siddaramaiah after his administration recognised the community as a religious minority. The community hailed the two-time Chief Minister for swift action on their demand, and some even backed him (and the Congress) in that year's election.
NDTV Explains | 7 Reasons Why Siddaramaiah Is Still Karnataka Chief Minister
That swing in support has been critical for the Congress; the Lingayats constitue about 15 per cent of Karnataka's population and have long been since as a stronghold of the Bharatiya Janata Party.
It was also key for Siddaramaiah since it gave him a buffer to combat DKS's overtures.
But that support has drifted away over the years.
In December the Lingayat Panchamsali community protesting over reservation were lathi-charged by the police, who then arrested several leaders, including sect head Basavajaya Mrityunjay Swami.
READ | Lathi-Charge In Karnataka Over Lingayat Community's Quota Demand
Siddaramaiah was labelled an "anti-Lingayat" person by the community, which now seems to have shifted its support to his deputy. And how the Congress will read this key voter base's unhappiness - two years before the next election - could decide if DKS wins his dream job.
READ | "Can't Be Chief Minister Without Party Support": Siddaramaiah
Meanwhile, the BJP is looking on hopefully. If it can win back the Lingayat vote the party stands a good chance of defeating the Congress in 2028, even if the Vokkaligas continue to back DKS.
The party's state unit chief BY Vijayendra, the son of former Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa, has played down the importance of Linagayat support for DKS, saying, "The people are not bothered if the Chief Minister is Siddaramaiah or DK Shivakumar. The issue is lack of development."
NDTV is now available on WhatsApp channels. Click on the link to get all the latest updates from NDTV on your chat.
Track Latest News Live on NDTV.com and get news updates from India and around the world