Rising Space Debris Threatens Earth As Chinese Shenzhou-20 Incident Highlights Orbital Risks

Earth is surrounded by millions of pieces of human-made debris that orbit the planet. Experts warn that this problem is worsening every year, with 2025 continuing the trend. Space debris specialists say nearly 130 million fragments are zipping around Earth. These include high-speed remnants from rocket stage explosions, abandoned satellites, and bits of broken space equipment. Some debris results from deliberate destruction of spacecraft during anti-satellite weapons testing, reported Space.com.

This growing space debris problem is increasing the risk of collisions, leading to even more debris, a phenomenon known as Kessler syndrome. NASA scientists Donald Kessler and Burton Corr-Palace first described this effect in 1978. According to experts, "Even after 47 years, this problem has become more serious, and the numerous debris collisions this year clearly demonstrate that we have no effective way to prevent or slow the accumulation of orbital debris around Earth."

On November 5, as China's Shenzhou-20 astronauts were preparing to undock from the country's space station, they noticed small cracks in their spacecraft's window. The cause of these cracks was identified as impacts from outer space debris, making the spacecraft unsuitable for safe return.

China launched an unmanned, cargo-loaded Shenzhou-22 spacecraft on November 25. According to reports, "The Shenzhou story ended on a positive note, with Chinese astronauts returning safely to Earth aboard the Shenzhou-21 spacecraft." This was the first alternative return procedure in the history of China's space station.

Moriba Jah, a space debris expert and professor at the University of Texas at Austin, said the incident highlights the growing dangers in orbit. "A crew return was postponed because microscopic debris impacted the spacecraft's window," he said. 

Jah explained that this uncertainty is not merely statistical, but also epistemic. According to Space.com, he said, "When the rate of uncertainty growth exceeds the rate of knowledge renewal, safety margins diminish." He suggested that missions, governance mechanisms, and information structures be designed to "regenerate knowledge at the rate at which it decays."

Regarding Shenzhou-20's cracked window, he said, that It highlights the flaws in global tracking, accountability, and responsibility. Until countries and companies consider data accuracy and transparency part of safety engineering, such near-misses will continue to recur."

Jah said that China's decision to postpone Shenzhou-20's return was an example of "epistemic humility-acknowledging what is unknown and adjusting accordingly. Such humility should be the norm, not the exception."

He added that this incident should push the international community towards auditable management, including common standards for orbital awareness, interoperable knowledge systems, and certification programs for missions that reduce risk.