US President Donald Trump has undone the painstaking efforts that went into building the US-India relationship. With ebbs and flows, both countries have cultivated a strategic partnership since the end of the Cold War. But recent turbulence in bilateral ties underscores the risks of over-reliance on government-to-government engagement. Though Trump, with his laser focus on tariffs, has put almost every US relationship under strain, countries like Israel, China, and even Pakistan have weathered the storm.
New Delhi has to change its approach if it wants to create a more sustainable relationship. While the UPA government once leaned on academics and think tanks, has the current government overestimated the sway of the diaspora and official bureaucratic engagement? Neither has translated into real policy leverage in times of diplomatic crises. Why is that so? The answer lies in understanding the mechanics of the American political system.
The Power Brokers
Unlike Westminster-style democracies, the US polity is unique. There is an underclass of permanent bureaucrats, but they function largely as middle managers. The real decision-makers emerge from a revolving door linking the private sector, academia, and policy circles. Power is concentrated in the hands of secretaries and undersecretaries whose tenures typically last 18 to 36 months. After that, they return to their professional homes, only to circle back into future administrations. These figures shape US policy at home and abroad, and it is here that sustained engagement should be targeted by any state seeking to fortify its US relationship against black swans.
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This involves constant interaction with industry leaders, particularly when they are out of the office. Potential office-holders form their views on the job, after which their positions harden. Early engagement allows influence; late engagement meets resistance. Such outreach should be comprehensive - through government channels, but equally via the private sector.
A Different Kind Of Lobbying
Industry associations play a vital role in this framework. They bring together a conglomeration of companies to lobby for favourable policies and include the full spectrum of influence: niche experts, policy practitioners, corporate leaders, and owners. A sustained engagement programme by Indian industry associations - firms backed by the government - could generate immense political capital. Investing in the right individuals on the American side will eventually translate into influence.
Every country has some fundamental strength and presence in the American system. The durability of any relationship in Washington depends on how well those strengths are leveraged. Overreliance on diaspora and ethnic second-generation groups will backfire if not integrated into a strategic ecosystem situated in a country's inherent advantage.
Those Who Have Cracked The Formula
Israel and China have both cracked the formula. Israel remains the most successful practitioner of the art. Beyond historical ties, Israel has relentlessly cultivated influence. Under the umbrella of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), it has engaged with every major US industrial vertical. In the finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) sector, Israel's dominance is so unparalleled that Israeli donors contribute nearly half of the funding for pro-Israel super PACs.
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China, too, plays to its strengths. Wall Street is Beijing's most powerful ally in the US and is rewarded with red-carpet treatment in Shanghai and Beijing. These ties go so deep that China amended its rules to allow Goldman Sachs full ownership of its joint venture. One just needs to listen to how Mike Bloomberg or JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon talk about China. Hollywood is also entangled through China's control over the world's second-largest box office, along with Disney's investments in Shanghai and Hong Kong theme parks. In technology, Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla do China's bidding for market access.
Similarly, Pakistani strategic analysts consistently fearmonger nuclear armageddon in the region to constrain India's crisis response options. Whether felicitating CENTCOM's General Kurilla with state honours or advancing the Trump family's interests through cryptocurrency investment, Pakistan has managed to play the lobbying game well.
India Needs To Play To Its Strengths
India must realise its own assets. Digital technology and defence manufacturing offer a solid foundation for deepening ties. American Big Tech is among India's strongest champions, given the vast user base and seamless stream for techies. A case in point is Apple's Tim Cook, who did not budge under Trump's pressure and is keeping iPhone production units in India intact. The US military-industrial complex can be a potential partner for integrating India's private defence manufacturing supply chains.
For India, this is the path to "Trump-proofing" its relationship with the United States - anchoring it not just in diplomacy, but in the deeper, institutional mechanics of American power. Only institutionalised, money-backed lobbying can withstand the churn of US domestic politics and forge a truly bipartisan consensus in its favour.
(Ambuj Sahu is a PhD candidate at Indiana University. Shubham Dwivedi is an Affiliate Researcher at Georgetown University.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
