With poll dates announced in Bihar, election fever has gripped the state once again. As the political landscape heats up, one question dominates conversations across teashops and television debates alike: is Nitish Kumar still the X-factor that determines electoral outcomes in Bihar? The answer, it appears, is far more complex than a simple yes or no.
A Kingmaker's Legacy
Nitish Kumar's political career presents an impressive track record that few can match. Whichever party he has allied with has tasted victory in Bihar - the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2005 and 2019, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in 2015, and the BJP again in 2020. This remarkable streak has earned him the reputation of being Bihar's ultimate kingmaker, who has donned the hat of King for almost 20 years - a leader whose support can swing the entire electoral arithmetic in favour of his chosen partner.
His political strength rests on a carefully cultivated vote bloc comprising Kurmi-Koeri communities (7%), Hindu Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs, at 26%) Mahadalits, and Womenfolk. These constituencies have remained largely loyal to him through various political upheavals, drawn by his relatively clean image and development-focused governance.
Development Agenda
Nitish Kumar's governance model has been distinctly welfare-oriented, particularly focusing on women's empowerment and marginalised communities. His flagship schemes like Jeevika Didi, cycle distribution for school girls, and the controversial prohibition policy have become defining features of his political legacy.
He introduced 20% reservation for EBCs in local bodies and pushed women's representation in panchayats to 50% - moves that significantly expanded political participation among previously underrepresented groups.
In what is termed his last innings, Nitish has opened the budget purse wide, launching a slew of schemes targeting women, youth, senior citizens, farmers, and laborers - five key cohorts in any election cycle. He has increased pension for senior citizens and widows, increased salaries of Anganwadi workers, safai karmacharis, given Rs. 5,000 to 16 lakh laborers and Rs. 10,000 to 1.21 crore women as seed capital to start business, and an unemployment allowance of Rs. 1,000 for youth.
This final push appears designed to cement his legacy and deliver one more electoral victory to secure his place in Bihar's political history.
The Declining Graph
However, the political landscape tells a story of gradual decline. Nitish's approval ratings as preferred Chief Minister have plummeted from 37% in 2020 to between 16% and 25% in recent surveys (C-Voter, VoteVibe). His party's fortunes have followed a similar trajectory, declining from a commanding 115 seats in 2010 to just 43 in 2020 and 22.6% vote share to 15.7% during the same period.
This downward spiral reflects what analysts call "natural fatigue" - the inevitable weariness that sets in when a leader has dominated the scene for too long. Also age is not on his side, he is 74 and allegedly seems to be suffering from some health issues. His political opportunism has also damaged his carefully cultivated image.
Over the last decade, Nitish has twice moved to the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) and twice returned to the NDA fold in what supporters euphemistically call "gharwapsi". These frequent shifts have raised questions about his political principles and reinforced perceptions of power-hungry manoeuvring rather than ideology-driven decision-making.
Questions about his health and age have further complicated matters, with some suggesting that keeping him as the face of the NDA might actually damage rather than enhance their prospects. Yet the BJP continues to project him as the chief ministerial face, recognising that his 12-15% vote share could prove decisive in a closely contested election.
The Indispensability Factor
Despite the declining numbers, Nitish Kumar remains indispensable to the NDA's Bihar strategy. The BJP simply lacks an alternate leadership figure who can match his appeal among EBCs and other crucial voting blocs. If Nitish is not seen as the prospective chief minister, there is a genuine risk that EBCs may not back the BJP as enthusiastically.
In essence, the BJP is piggybacking on the JD(U), aware that without Nitish's appeal, their path to power becomes significantly steeper.
Some analysts argue that media narratives have unfairly characterised Nitish as weak. The Janata Dal (United)'s decline to 43 seats in 2020, they contend, was primarily due to Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) splitting votes. Without that interference, the party would likely have secured around 70-plus seats.
Furthermore, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the JD(U) demonstrated a better strike rate than the NDA overall, winning 12 out of 16 seats compared to the BJP's 12 out of 17. Had Nitish not switched sides when he did, the NDA might have lost those polls entirely.
The Challenges Ahead
Young leaders like Tejashwi Yadav pose a formidable challenge to Nitish's dominance. However, the veteran leader's advantage lies in his established caste coalitions, his track record on development work and administrative experience, which together neutralise much of the threat posed by younger challengers.
Nitish's biggest vulnerability remains his inability to significantly industrialise Bihar and create jobs at scale. The persistent outmigration of Bihar's youth seeking employment elsewhere represents perhaps the most damning indictment of his long tenure.
Popularity surveys confirm that his support among young voters has declined sharply, though he retains considerable backing among those above thirty-five and senior citizens.
The Risks
The JD(U)'s ability to win more seats compared to 2020 depends upon vote transfer between partners in NDA. In 2020, while 75% JD(U) supporters backed BJP candidates, only 55% BJP supporters reciprocated this gesture where the JD(U) candidate was contesting. As many as 20% BJP supporters backed the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).
This time around, it is possible that Jan Suraj could play this role. Both the JD(U) and the BJP are competing to win more seats to claim the chief ministerial position post elections, and this creates a trust deficit between the two key players.
The Final Verdict
Nitish Kumar is banking on crossing the 50-seat mark by leveraging his welfare schemes and capitalising on what he perceives as the opposition's strategic error of focusing on issues like SIR and "Vote Chori" rather than unemployment and corruption. For the NDA to secure victory, political observers agree that Nitish must win at least 50 seats.
Poll strategist Prashant Kishor has predicted that Nitish will fall to just 25 seats and will not become chief minister. Yet, the mathematics of the election make Nitish's performance critical. With the BJP and its allies contesting only around 143 seats, it becomes virtually impossible for the NDA to win without Nitish (who is likely to contest around 100) delivering his share.
The question of whether Nitish Kumar remains Bihar's X-factor admits no easy answer. His brand value has certainly depreciated, his party has weakened, and political fatigue has set in. Yet, he retains crucial vote banks, a relatively clean image, and the ability to influence outcomes in a fragmented electoral landscape.
Along with women voters, the wild card of Prashant Kishor's political intervention, Nitish Kumar remains one of three key factors that will determine Bihar's election results.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
