In a social media post on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump called for Iran's "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER", pushing tensions in the Middle East and beyond to a new level. In a series of posts, he also threatened Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying that the US knew where he was hiding but didn't want him killed "for now".
Trump's threats came a day after Trump cut short the G-7 summit in Canada to concentrate on American options in Israel's war against Iran. The American President said he was now looking for "a real end" to the conflict. He told reporters on Air Force One that he was "not too much in the mood to negotiate".
Later, Trump posted on social media that "everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran", leading to speculation that he was about to order air strikes in the Iranian capital and elsewhere in the country. Since then, all exit roads in Tehran have been clogged with vehicles full of people trying to flee the capital. Many countries, including India, have issued advisories to their citizens to leave Iran.
Growing American Presence
The developments come as the US military continues to boost its military presence in the region. These include a US Navy Carrier Strike Group, led by the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier. The US military has also deployed B-2 Spirit bombers at the Indian Ocean US-British base at Diego Garcia, from where they can be used to drop massive bunker-buster GBU-57 MOP bombs on Iran.
If the US does join Israel in its war against Iran, it will reverse Trump's own stated policy, that he wanted to have a deal with Iran on its nuclear programme and was not looking for a military solution to the issue. It will also disappoint his MAGA supporters in the United States, who had campaigned for Trump in the election last year over his promise that he was against America's involvement in foreign wars.
But the US leader's threats could also be a pressure tactic aimed at forcing Tehran to make substantial concessions to end the latest confrontation forced by Israel. Iran is believed to be under strong military pressure from Israel, and it has been sending feelers via Gulf countries that it still wants a negotiated settlement with the US over the nuclear issue.
Green Signal To Netanyahu?
Last Friday, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched the latest war, Trump stated the US was not a party to it, though he said he knew about the Israeli leader's decision in advance. Not many believed him, arguing that Netanyahu must have received a green light from Trump to start the war, the first by Israel in 50 years against a sovereign nation.
Even so, on the eve of the Israeli military action, Trump acknowledged that America's talks with Iran on its nuclear programme were making good progress. Netanyahu's decision was clearly aimed at scuppering a possible deal, just two days before the sixth round of talks. He justified the action by saying that it was to prevent Tehran from making a nuclear bomb, which, he said, was an imminent prospect.
It is widely believed that Netanyahu has not been in favour of a negotiated settlement on Iran's nuclear programme and has always preferred a military solution. He had even opposed the 2015 landmark deal involving six powers led by the United States. Under that agreement, Iran had agreed to limit its nuclear activities and allow continuous and robust monitoring by the global nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors. In return, Iran would get relief from crippling economic sanctions.
How Iran Increased Nuclear Enrichment
Trump was also opposed to that deal and pulled the US out of it in 2018 during his first term in office. After the deal collapsed, Iran quickly stepped up its nuclear enrichment activities and has made fast progress in the past few years.
A week ago, the IAEA said in a report that Iran had enough uranium enriched to 60% purity, near weapons grade, to potentially make nine nuclear bombs. It also found Iran to be in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years.
Israel and its Western backers have every reason to be worried, and given that, Netanyahu has now grabbed the opportunity to attack Iran, something Israel had been planning to do for more than 20 years. It's quite possible that Trump asked him to wait for a deal, and Netanyahu disagreed. However, when Israel made spectacular military gains in Iran, Trump was happy to take credit.
Israel's Expanding War Aims
Events in the days after the start of the military campaign suggest Israel's war objectives are not limited to destroying Iran's nuclear programme and its military capability. As Netanyahu has made clear, it has political aims. The attacks have already gone beyond the nuclear and military targets, hitting Iran's oil and gas facilities, and even its state broadcaster.
Netanyahu has publicly declared that he wants to see Iran's Islamic regime go. Although Trump vetoed his plan to assassinate Khamenei, the latter did not rule out his killing. Now, it appears Trump is prepared to go with Netanyahu's plan, though not at this stage.
Toppling the regime in Iran is fraught with huge risks. Firstly, Iranians are unlikely to take kindly to a call from Netanyahu, the aggressor, to revolt against their government; that will only unite the people. Secondly, as the French President, Emmanuel Macron, has warned, a regime change in Iran will lead to chaos.
The aim of toppling the regime explains the limitation of getting rid of Iran's nuclear capabilities. In the first few days of its military campaign in Iran, Israel attacked several of its nuclear sites, including Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow. The Israeli military has also killed more than a dozen Iranian nuclear scientists since Friday.
It's not clear how successful the bombing on nuclear infrastructure has been, though the IAEA has said that a pilot fuel enrichment plant, above ground, at Natanz, was destroyed. Of the three plants, Fordow is the hardest to demolish.
Fordow: Iran's Technological Ingenuity
Keeping in mind that Israel and the United States would one day try to blow it up, Fordow was developed deep underground in a mountain. Located 32 kilometres from the ancient, central city of Qom, the nuclear plant is up to 80 metres deep underground. It is a symbol of Iran's defiance, and a technological marvel.
The Fordow nuclear enrichment plant
During the Obama presidency, Israel had devised a plan to send commandos to Fordow but ultimately decided not to go ahead with it as it was too risky. It is one of Iran's most fortified structures. During the current military campaign, Israel is reported to have damaged or even blocked its entrance, but the plant is believed to be unharmed.
The only bomb that can seriously hit Fordow is America's GBU-57, the precision-guided, 13,400-kilo Massive Ordnance Penetrator, also called 'MOP'. Even this bomb can blow up structures only up to 61 metres deep. To destroy the Fordow nuclear plant, MOP will have to be dropped several times over several days.
Even if American bombs succeed in destroying Fordow, this will not be the end of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme. Iran is believed to have set up several other plants in the mountains to hide its enriched uranium.
You Can't Bomb The Nuclear Know-How
Israel may have killed about a dozen nuclear scientists, but they must have shared their knowledge and expertise on enriching uranium with the younger generation of technocrats. Iran's scientists have faced multiple assassination attempts from Israel for many years. Israel or the US can't possibly kill that knowledge with bombs.
With the US joining Israel in bombing Iran's nuclear programme and its military infrastructure, the possibility of the Iranian establishment opting for a nuclear weapon only grows. It knows the importance of such deterrence for its security. So, Netanyahu has taken a big gamble in starting the war against Iran last week.
Dirty Bomb
There is also another, bigger risk with the US joining Israel in the war. If the Iranian military and political establishment fears for its survival, it may, in desperation, decide to quickly assemble a 'dirty bomb'.
Nuclear scientists say Iran doesn't need 90% enriched uranium to develop such a device. Writing in the journal of the Institute for Science and International Security think-tank, David Albright and Sarah Burkhar said in April 2022 that "an enrichment level of 60 per cent is enough to create a compact nuclear explosive". They explained, "At the least, a device made from 60 percent HEU (highly enriched uranium) would be suitable for underground nuclear testing or delivery by a crude delivery system such as an aircraft, shipping container, or truck, sufficient to establish Iran as a nuclear power."
If Iran does decide to go down this route, it will bring an unimaginable disaster upon everyone. The world is not prepared to witness a nuclear holocaust. Diplomacy, thus, ought to be given a chance to end the Iran-Israel conflict.
(Naresh Kaushik is a former editor at the Associated Press and BBC News and is based in London)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
