In all the investigation surrounding the Delhi blasts, while the usual suspects have been mostly revealed, a new but not surprising entity has cropped up: Turkey. Over the past few years, Turkey has been surfacing with increasing frequency in matters inimical to India - whether in support for Pakistan against India, or fuelling Kashmiri separatist sentiment, or peddling narratives of Muslim victimhood in India through its media. Most recently it blocked the overflight of AN-124 carrying Indian army's Apache Helicopters - an overtly unfriendly act.
The Red Fort Blasts
As reports and investigations into the blast near Red Fort now suggest, the two main accused, Dr Umar Mohammed and Dr Muzammil, were being guided by a handler based in Ankara, Turkey, under the alias 'Ukasa'. Investigations have also revealed 68 suspicious mobile numbers active near the parking and the blast site, with calls traced to Pakistan and Turkey. The government has not made allegations against any country, focusing on the internal dimensions. On its part, Turkey has released an angry rebuttal at these findings. "The deliberate reports in certain Indian media outlets claiming that 'Türkiye is linked to terrorist acts in India and provides logistical, diplomatic, and financial support to terrorist groups' are part of a malicious disinformation campaign aimed at damaging bilateral relations between the two countries," said Türkiye's Center for Combating Disinformation on Turkish social media platform 'NSosyal'.
The Kashmir Issue
Interestingly, five years ago, around this time in 2020, a Greek journalist and defence analyst, Andreas Mountzouroulias, had said in a report that according to information received from local sources by Kurdish news agency ANF, Abu Emsa, who heads the Suleyman Shah Brigade, a notorious terrorist organisation part of the Syrian National Army, had told his gang members in the northern Syrian city of Afrin that Ankara wanted to strengthen and reinforce Kashmir. This may have been an exaggeration, but curiously, a few Hamas members - another militant organisation that Turkey supports - were spotted in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir more recently. Even if we disregard this coincidence, there is no denying that Turkey has been on a belligerent course against India at least since 2019, when it engaged in the debate on the reorganisation of Jammu and Kashmir state.
The first salvo came when after decades, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raised the Kashmir issue during his address at the UN General Assembly. He has continued to raise the matter periodically at international forums, most recently this year. In 2020, during his address at the joint session of Pakistan's Parliament, President Erdoğan underlined the importance of the Kashmir issue for Turkey, reiterating the country's support to Pakistan on it. State-run Turkish media has kept up a steady tirade against India, peddling narratives of not just Kashmiri but of "Muslim victimhood" in general in India and on "Hindutva fascism". Turkey has allowed Kashmir-related conferences and events to take place on its soil, hosts Kashmiri dissidents, and has often financed paid trips for conferences and seminars for many journalists, scholars and activists from Kashmir. All of this has not just earned it praise from Pakistan but also endeared it to Kashmiris - secessionists and others alike.
Understanding Turkey's Path
Yet, as events in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor revealed - Turkey has everything to gain from good relations with India. From tourists to investments to lucrative contracts, Turkey was the principal beneficiary in its bilateral relations with India. Yet, it has chosen a contrarian path. What explains this?
Religion is the most cited cause. Certainly, Turkey's ruling AKP is an Islamist party, allied to the dreaded Muslim Brotherhood organisation. It has enabled the country to swerve from the secularist path chosen by Turkey 's founding father Mustafa Kemal Ataturk to a more Islamist course, something - it must be underscored - not appreciated by large swathes of the Turkish population.
Ideologically inclined to reclaim Turkey's "rightful place" in history as the inheritor state of the Ottoman Empire, which was also the leader of the Muslim world, the current Turkish dispensation has leaned heavily on the Muslim identity. As things got tough on its home turf, the government looked abroad to bolster its standing. With the European Union protecting its Christian exclusivity, Turkey looked to Muslim lands. Since most Arab countries look upon Turkey as a former colonial power, it had to look further east. Turkey's Asia Anew policy, aimed at developing closer relations with Asian states, converged with its other policy of positioning itself as a leader of the Muslim world, especially since the demographic centre of the Muslim world has now moved to South and Southeast Asia.
Opportunity In Conflicts
Religion provided the ideological anchor to more practical considerations with a struggling economy. With its formidable military and standing as a NATO power, Turkey soon saw opportunity in conflicts, especially those in or connected with Muslim countries. First came the victory in Karabakh. Azerbaijan could win back parts of territory it had lost to Armenia more than two decades ago in large parts because of Turkish military assistance. It earned Turkey much-needed financial resources - Azerbaijan's defence procurement from Turkey in 2020 was $123 million.
Soon after, in Baku to celebrate the victory, Erdoğan described Ankara's support for Azerbaijan as part of Turkey's quest for its "deserved place in the world order".
Turkey's other successes are also rooted in conflict. In Libya, Turkish intervention helped the Government of National Accord retain control and force the opposing bloc into a ceasefire. It also won Turkey Libyan support for its claims on the resources of the Eastern Mediterranean, where it is pitted against countries such as Greece and Cyprus, as well as a major defence deal with Qatar, with which ties also burgeoned during the Arab Spring and the rift between the Gulf countries in 2017.
But the most spectacular win for Turkey has to be in Syria, where after 13 long years of civil war, the regime of Bashar Al-Assad was overthrown and the former Al Qaeda Mohammed Al Sharaa and his faction has been installed. This victory has primarily been due to Turkish logistical and military support, together with Qatari resources. It also places Turkey in the driver's seat there, with major defence collaboration on its way. Turkey's role in enabling the Islamic State has also been well-documented.
The Success Of Turkish Weapons
Turkish military prowess and the success of its weapons, especially its drones, has won it lucrative contracts from third parties like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Indonesia and Malaysia. Injecting itself in conflicts has, thus, so far been lucrative for Turkey, especially for the ruling dispensation, as it faces increased domestic discontent. President Erdogan's desire to engage with Kashmir must be seen in this context. Together with religion as an anchor, Turkey has significantly boosted arms sales to Pakistan, and its support for it was in full view during India's Operation Sindoor.
Pakistan used Turkish-made drones, a Turkish Ada Class anti-submarine corvette docked at Karachi port on May 2, and Turkish military counselors were present in Pakistan. Turkey has emerged as Pakistan's second-largest arms provider. In 2018, Turkey's STM Defence Technologies struck a $1 billion deal for four corvettes of a new class for the Pakistan Navy. The two sides regularly conduct joint military drills. Pakistan's National Aerospace Science and Technology Park (NASTP) has entered into an agreement with Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar for research and development. According to reports, Turkiye supplies Pakistan with F16 fighting falcon jets. The cooperation is extensive.
Rumblings In Bangladesh
More alarming for India is that now, Turkey's military footprint is widening on its east as well - in Bangladesh. Turkey 's defence outreach to Bangladesh began under the watch of India's friend Sheikh Hasina. But now, under the interim government of Chief Advisor Mohammed Yunus, defence ties between the two have deepened manifold. Bangladesh is set to acquire Turkey's SİPER long-range air defense system, acquire 26 Turkish Tulpar light tanks, and co-produce combat drones. Turkey is also negotiating the establishment of two defence industry complexes in Bangladesh, which is a major strategic development in South Asia as it will mean the entry of another extra-regional power in the Bay of Bengal.
Along with military interventions and support, Turkey also follows a policy of patronage of rebel and militant Muslim groups and individuals like the Syrian rebels, and individuals like the late Jamal Khashoggi. It helps endear Turkey to such communities, winning it support and loyalty, promoting its soft power wrapped in Sufism, Turkish culture, films and TV soaps. Its support for Kashmiri dissidents is also part of this larger policy.
India, it seems, thus has a complex problem on its hands. But this time around, it should not tiptoe around it. Our security is solely our concern, and ours alone. India cannot afford to be perceived as a soft state that adversaries can exploit under the garb of international diplomacy.
(The author is a journalist and political analyst)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
