The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had been claiming for quite some time that its leader, Arvind Kejrwal, would be arrested. The day finally came on March 21, when in a late-night move, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) arrested Kejriwal for his alleged involvement in the Delhi liquor scam. After Jharkhand's Hemant Soren, Kejriwal is now possibly the first chief minister to have been arrested while in office.
Incidentally, for both leaders, skipping the ninth summons by the central agency proved to be dangerous. Upon Kejriwal's arrest, the AAP moved the Supreme Court for a late-night hearing, which was rejected. The party later withdrew its petition and will now approach a trial court. However, under the stringent rules of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002, getting relief from courts is not easy.
A Big Blow
The latest development is a big blow to AAP. Delhi's former deputy chief minister, Manish Sisodia, is already in jail in connection with a corruption case. It's ironic that a party formed out of a movement against corruption is today facing arrest of its top leadership in corruption cases.
The case has many angles - legal, political and ethical, moral. While the AAP has accused the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of using central agencies to finish off the party, the BJP has countered that charge by claiming that the law is taking its due course and the party is paying for its illegal deeds in the liquor case. The AAP questions the timing of the arrest, alleging that the move is aimed at preventing Kejriwal from campaigning for the upcoming Lok Sabha election, but the BJP says that it is, in fact, Kejriwal who timed his actions well to gain sympathy from voters.
There are seven unanswered questions that emanate from this arrest.
1. Who Will Be The Next CM?
While the AAP has claimed that Kejriwal will continue to be chief minister and run the government from jail, is it legally tenable? He is a chief minister without any portfolio. As he has not yet been convicted, Kejriwal cannot be disqualified as an MLA. And this means that he is eligible to be chief minister, too.
While this may sound fine in theory, does the spirit of law allow this? Will it be morally/ethically right to continue as chief minister? Can the Lieutenant-Governor (L-G), with whom the AAP doesn't enjoy a good rapport, intervene and remove Kejriwal as chief minister or take the reins of the government? This remains to be seen.
2. Will The Arrest Create Sympathy For AAP?
This is a million-dollar question. The saga clearly consolidates the AAP's support amongst its core voters. However, outside of Delhi and Punjab, this factor may not resonate with the electorate as much. Since the AAP has national ambitions, the arrest may hinder the party's expansion plans as the ED action severely dents its "party with a difference" image.
3. Will This Sympathy Work In State Or National Polls?
Delhi as a state sees split voting, that is, a large number of voters back AAP in state elections but vote for the BJP in national elections. This means that there is a good number of swing or neutral voters in the capital. How will Kejriwal's arrest impact this segment? Even if a section of voters feels that Kejriwal is being targeted by the BJP through central agencies, will this work to his advantage in state elections due early next year, or even the general elections?
Delhi's poll date, May 25, is still a good two months away. Has the BJP unknowingly presented the state on a platter to AAP? In 2025, the party completes a decade in office. Can it neutralise anti-incumbency against the Kejriwal government in the 2025 assembly elections?
4. Can The Arrest Unite The Opposition?
With key allies exiting before polls and seat-sharing pacts not yet finalised for key states like Maharashtra and Bihar, the Opposition had been in disarray. But today, the Congress, whose Delhi leaders were ironically the ones who had exposed the alleged liquor scam, is now firmly backing the AAP on this issue.
All top guns of the INDIA bloc have come out in support of Kejriwal. This arrest has ended up seving as a unifier for the Opposition alliance and has given it a set of muddas-that the BJP is out to kill competition, that there is no level playing field in the elections, and that democracy is in danger.
5. Can It Backfire Against The BJP?
The BJP is clearly in the pole position in general elections according to opinion polls. Often, when a party is in power, it tends to get overconfident and ignore the warning signals. Such actions can spur the opposition and give it ammunition. This could have an impact on voters who want India to have a shashakt opposition.
6. Who Will Lead AAP's Lok Sabha Campaign?
The AAP is very much dependent on Kejriwal as he is their star campaigner. Over the years, many founding members of the party have left due to differences with Kejriwal, accusing him of being stubborn and autocratic. With Sisodia also behind bars, the party does not have many leaders with a pan-India appeal. To an extent, the burden may fall upon Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann. In Delhi, Atishi and Saurav Bhardwaj may hold the fort.
7. Is It The End Of The Road For AAP?
The AAP was born from a public movement against corruption. In just a decade, it has acquired a national party status. It is the only party apart from the Congress and the BJP to have a government in more than one state. It has also expanded its presence in Gujarat, Goa and Haryana, and is considered by many as having the potential to take over the mantle from the Congress as the main opposition party.
We will have to see how things pan out legally and politically in the next few days to gauge exactly how Kejriwal's arrest will impact the Lok Sabha election results.