The Supreme Court's order for a court-monitored CBI probe into the tragic loss of 41 lives at a political rally held by actor-turned-politician Vijay's Tamizha Vetri Kazhagam is expected to have a big impact on the fierce political exchange over the tragedy.
If the order is a jolt for the Tamil Nadu government -- which had appointed a judicial commission and had blamed TVK for the tragedy -- the critical observations of the top court against the Madras High Court order appointing a special Investigation Team raises serious questions, both in terms of procedure and the order itself.
In its interim order on Monday, a two-judge bench of the top court ruled that an independent investigation was necessary "to allay concerns and ensure impartiality".
Further, to allay concerns over impartiality of the CBI investigation, the top court also formed a three-member monitoring committee, chaired by former Supreme Court judge Justice Ajay Rastogi.
The top court was hearing a batch of petitions -- including one by TVK -- challenging the Madras High Court order.
The party had contended that the order to form a Special Investigation Team was issued without making Vijay or other leaders party to the proceedings, thereby denying them the opportunity to be heard.
The top court came down on the single-judge order of Madras High Court and observed that the decision "lacked sensitivity and propriety".
It also raised concern about judicial discipline as the matter was also pending before the Madurai bench of the same court, the Supreme Court said. The Madurai bench has territorial jurisdiction over the incident in Karur, and the single-bench order about the SIT led to multiplicity of proceedings.
The top court order -- a scathing one -- allows the TVK a substantial defence against the DMK's offensive. Till the probe by the CBI is completed, Vijay can use the order as a defence that the state police's allegations were one sided.
The deaths at the rally had given Chief Minister MK Stalin and his party an opening to take on the TVK. The DMK leaders issued multiple statements accusing Vijay and his party of not following norms or providing amenities, including drinking water, for the people who had gathered.
They had further accused Vijay and his party leaders of "fleeing the incident spot".
So far, Vijay and his TVK have been on the defensive.
In fact, the political counter to the DMK in this case has largely come from the AIADMK and BJP, which seem to have sided with the TVK and blamed the state government more for the tragedy.
Now, for the first time since the tragedy, Vijay's party issued public statements welcoming the top court's order.
A CBI probe would mean that the DMK and the Tamil Nadu government would not be able to control the narrative.
It is important to note that despite the DMK allegations, Vijay's fans and even the families of victims have not held him responsible or have publicly made any critical comments.
This is testimony to the power and loyalty of the Vijay fan following. The DMK's offensive against the TVK poses the risk of Vijay being perceived as politically targeted by the ruling party. This could gain him sympathy among his fans and followers.
The Supreme Court's order and observations, in many ways, will provide Vijay with the ammunition to take on the DMK as he eventually restarts public meetings and embarks on a visit to Karur to meet the families.
Ultimately, it is the CBI's findings and conclusions that would be crucial and this is why the probe could be a double-edged sword for Vijay.
If the central agency holds his party responsible, it would be a blow. The TVK is antagonistic towards ruling DMK and the BJP and any adverse conclusion could push the party into a political cul-de-sac.
The DMK has consistently alleged that the government has been misusing Central agencies to target Opposition parties.
The BJP has welcomed the CBI probe and has sided with Vijay so far. The DMK has questioned whether a CBI probe will give it leverage over TVK.
AIADMK Chief Edappadi Palaniswamy, a crucial NDA ally, has meanwhile indicated an openness to having TVK as an ally. For both sides, such an alliance is easier said than done.
Vijay cannot accept EPS as a Chief Ministerial face and an equal. Neither can EPS accept Vijay as the Chief Ministerial face. Even if the two sides find a common path, the big sticking point remains the BJP.
Given his strong position and minority support base, it may be difficult for Vijay to justify the optics of having any dealings with the BJP. But politics can make strange bedfellows.
Will the tragedy, the probe and the politics around it change Vijay's political outlook and political alignment in the state ahead of 2026? Enormously tragic as the incident was, the political exchange over it is likely to get more intense in the run-up to next year's assembly elections.
(The author is Executive Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
