Varun Gandhi, Smriti Irani May Return To Rajya Sabha From UP Next Month

The BJP is likely to field national general secretaries Smriti Irani and Harish Dwivedi in the coming Rajya Sabha election in Uttar Pradesh. Several other names are also being discussed, including Varun Gandhi, Sanjeev Baliyan, and Satyapal Singh, sources told NDTV. Ten seats in the state are up for election on October 16 and chances are that the Samajwadi Party and the BJP could face off over the tenth seat. The nomination process begins on Tuesday.

The SP may field three candidates, sources indicated, though its current strength can secure victory of only two. 

The party is reportedly considering sending senior leader Ram Gopal Yadav to the Rajya Sabha once again. The names of former IAS officer Alok Ranjan and Salim Iqbal are also doing the rounds, indicating that the party is ready for a battle.

The BJP is certain to win seven seats. But keeping in mind the upcoming assembly elections, the party is considering pushing for an eighth, leaving the field wide open for cross-voting.

Sources said the party may nominate national general secretaries Smriti Irani and Harish Dwivedi as candidates. In addition, it may also give tickets to Jats, Rajputs, OBCs, and minorities. 

The terms of current OBC MPs Geeta Shakya and BL Verma are ending. Verma is a minister at the Centre, so he could be re-elected to the Rajya Sabha. There is also talk of Geeta Shakya being re-elected. 

The names of Prakash Pal, president of the state BJP OBC Morcha, and Rekha Verma are also being discussed. Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri's term is also ending. In view of next year's assembly elections in Punjab, there is talk of sending him back to the Rajya Sabha. 

There is also talk of replacing Dalit leader Brijlal with a younger Dalit leader. Former minister Sanjeev Baliyan and former MP Satyapal Singh are being discussed as Jat leaders. Varun Gandhi, Suresh Rana, Amit Malviya, and Rajbir Singh are also being considered. 

The names of potential candidates were discussed at a core committee meeting in Lucknow today. The names will be finalised at a meeting of the Central Election Committee due in the next three to four days. 

There is talk that current MPs Neeraj Shekhar and Arun Singh may be asked to contest the assembly elections. Sources said the BJP will finalise the names of candidates with assembly elections in mind. 

The party currently faces the challenge of retaining Brahmin votes. 

Additionally, a strategy is being developed to bring back the non-Yadav OBC votes, particularly Kurmi and non-Jatav SC votes that were lost in the Lok Sabha elections. 

The BJP also wants to give greater representation to youth and women.

How BJP Can Win The 8th Seat: The Math

The number of Legislative assemblies in Uttar Pradesh is 403. Currently, there are 396 MLAs. So 37 first-preference votes are required to win one Rajya Sabha seat. 

The BJP currently has 255 MLAs, thus securing seven seats on its own. Among its allies, Apna Dal Sonelal has 13 seats, Rashtriya Lok Dal nine, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party six, and NiSHAD Party five. 

This leaves the BJP and its allies with 33 surplus votes after winning seven seats. So it will need only four additional votes to win the eighth seat, which can be achieved by adding two more unaffiliated MLAs from the Jansatta Dal Loktantrik Party.

What The Third SP Candidate Needs To Win 

For the Samajwadi Party, a third seat is a long shot in comparison with the BJP. The party has 101 MLAs. Two Congress MLAs are also with it, bringing the total to 103. 

So after winning two seats, the SP will have a surplus of 29 votes, and it needs eight more to win an additional seat. 

Chances are high for widespread cross-voting for the tenth seat. A whip is not applicable in Rajya Sabha elections, meaning voting against a party candidate does not result in a loss of membership. 

Therefore, both BJP and the SP will try to win over as many MLAs as possible.