(Swapan Dasgupta is a Delhi-based political commentator with avowedly right-wing inclinations)Having positioned myself in a truck following Narendra Modi through the streets of Varanasi as he set out to file his nomination, I spent the three hours it took to cover the one kilometre observing the crowds.
My interest was not principally in monitoring the onrush of youthful enthusiasm of the local NAMO army or even in undertaking a head count. Far more revealing was the expression of those who lined up on balconies and in front of the shuttered shops. In particular, I was interested in the reactions of women because, as invariably happens in northern India, the more active participants tend to be overwhelmingly male.
Throughout the journey, I could detect the immediate NaMo connect with middle-aged women. Surrounded by their family and kids, their facial expressions suggested a great deal of boisterous enthusiasm as they clapped and cheered from a safe distance. Maybe it was the carnival atmosphere of the whole event but, as in Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh is likely to see a significant women vote for the BJP solely on account of Modi.
The other aspect of the roadshow that interested me was the reaction of the two small Muslim clusters through which the cavalcade passed. The steps of the big mosque, for example, were lined with local Muslims, numbering around 150. They watched the sea of saffron pass their place of worship but they remained absolutely stone-faced. There was no visible panic or anger, just a clutch of expressionless individuals who didn't join in the celebratory mood of the neighbourhood.
It is always tempting to over-interpret this Muslim sullenness and argue, as my panic-stricken liberals have done, that India is polarised over Modi. If, by polarisation they mean that people are sharply divided, I would be inclined to agree. But doesn't this division happen in nearly every election? In the past the BJP has won and lost elections but I can't recall even one election where it secured Muslim votes in any meaningful measure.
In 2004, Atal Bihari Vajpayee had been refashioned as a great consensus figure. The grim reality is that even in his Lucknow constituency, the number of votes he secured from Muslim-dominated localities didn't add up beyond 750 votes. In the media, Muslim notables are often quoted as saying that the community would have considered voting BJP had Modi not been the candidate. The empirical reality, however, is that Muslims (with rare exceptions) do not regard voting BJP as a viable option.
It is not that a hand of friendship hasn't been extended. There was some secularist gloating over the refusal of the son of shehnai maestro Bismillah Khan to be one of Modi's proposers in Varanasi. The family of the musician took a principled stand that they didn't want to get involved in any politics. This detachment should be respected. But the more important thing, it seems to me, was the fact that Modi believed that the social profile of Varanasi demanded the incorporation of Bismillah Khan's legacy.
There may be good reasons why Muslims are electorally separated from the BJP. The huge propaganda offensive to cast Modi as a Muslim-hating ogre may well be exaggerated but there is no doubt that it has alarmed Muslims. The community pressure that compelled the Janata Dal (U) candidate in Kishenganj (Bihar) to opt out of the race and prevent a split in Muslim votes may well be happening at a more informal level in other parts of the country. Certainly, the Congress' invocation of secularism is calculated to prey on Muslim apprehensions of Modi.
However, there is a crucial difference between electoral politics and governance. A political party can be selective in choosing its support base for the elections. However, that sense of discrimination has to cease when it comes to governance.
If Modi becomes Prime Minister, the Muslim contribution to his success will be nominal. But that must not influence any future Modi administration's sense of even-handedness. Modi's rajdharma as a possible PM will lie in treating those who voted for him with the same measure of understanding and sympathy as those who opposed him. In the eyes of the state, all Indians must be equal.
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