Siddaramaiah's Job 'Not Currently In Danger', DK Shivakumar 'Must Wait'

Here are the top 10 points in this big story:

1. Congress sources told NDTV today Siddaramaiah's job 'is not currently in danger'. The party, sources said, is aware the numbers are in his favour – he is a big-name OBC leader with strong support from the Ahinda communities and from over 100 of the party's 137 MLAs. Therefore, any leadership change will be difficult without his consent.

2. But pressure from Shivakumar and his camp, a group from which petitioned party boss Mallikarjun Kharge in Delhi last week – could lead to a cabinet reshuffle being delayed. Siddaramaiah wanted the reshuffle as a statement of his intent to remain Chief Minister.

3. Within the Congress, however, DKS' bid is seen as being on unsteady ground because of the relative lack of internal support. He does have support from the politically influential Vokkaliga caste, whose votes he swung from rivals Janata Dal Secular in the 2023 poll.

4. However, the backing from the Vokkaligas, which includes a prominent religious leader publicly expressing support for the Deputy Chief Minister and the Mysuru Vokkaliga Association warning Siddaramaiah to hand over power peacefully, or face widespread protests, is not enough, at this time at least, for DKS to realise his ambition.

5. Meanwhile, over in Delhi Congress boss Mallikarjun Kharge has warned senior leader Rahul Gandhi to end this spat before the winter session of Assembly starts on December 8. Sources told NDTV Kharge realises a divided Congress will be ripped apart by the Bharatiya Janata Party and, worse, could lose power in one of only three states it rules outright today, which will add to the steady erosion of its political credibility.

6. Kharge's warning, however, could come too late. A senior Karnataka BJP leader confirmed this morning the plan to push a no-confidence vote against the Congress' government. Sunil Kumar told reporters, "Siddaramaiah is restricted to Mysuru and the Deputy Chief Minister (DKS) to Delhi. In this situation I spoke to R Ashok (the Leader of the Opposition) and to other leaders and said we should bring a no confidence motion."

7. The BJP has been steadily targeting the Congress on this issue; the opposition party's state unit boss. BY Vijayendra told NDTV Thursday night the ruling party had lost the people's trust. "We really don't know where we are heading… but one thing is sure. The Congress, despite having an absolute majority... It is unfortunate, what we are seeing…"

8. Over the past few days Siddaramaiah and DKS have been taking gentle pot shots at the other, each careful not to say too much or say something that could be used against them. But the gloves slipped off a little Thursday. First DKS spoke of 'word power' being 'world power' – a reference to the 'power-sharing deal'. The Chief Minister responded on X, "A 'word' is not power unless it betters the 'world' for the people" and then rubbed it in by claiming for himself the Karnataka people's five-year mandate to the Congress.

9. It appears the Congress must choose, either now or in the near future, between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar, unless it manages a suitable compromise, one of which could be an 'interim' Chief Minister, possibly Home Minister G Parameshwara.

10. Either way, Siddaramaiah has made it clear he will not quit on his own, particularly with the record for longest-serving Karnataka Chief Minister well within reach. What DKS wants, for now, is a clear transition plan to his becoming the Chief Minister.