NSE Nifty50 closed at 23,002.15, down 775.65 points or 3.26 per cent. BSE Sensex settled at 74,207.24, down 2496.89 points or 3.26 per cent.

The Nifty India Volatility Index jumped 22.86 per cent to 23.20, indicating a spike in uncertainty in near term.

Any upward or downward movement in the Brent Crude oil price usually makes it to the news, but this benchmark has been at the centre of focus since the beginning of the fresh conflict in Iran. On Thursday, the news of Brent crude oil price crossing $110 per barrel mark triggered a crash in Indian equities. Read full report here

As of 3:00 pm, the Nifty50 was trading 3.46 per cent or 822.85 points down at 22,947, and the Sensex was trading 3.33 per cent or 2,551.49 points down at 74,081.87.

Sudhir Kaushik, Co-founder and chief executive officer (CEO), Taxspanner, a Zaggle company:

The new Income Tax Draft Rules make the old tax regime significantly more rewarding-higher meal limits (Rs 50 to Rs 200), gift exemption (Rs 5,000 to Rs 15,000), along with fuel and mobile leasing benefits, can unlock up to Rs 1.25 lakh tax savings on a Rs 20 lakh salary. Smart structuring is now essential to maximise take-home and employee satisfaction.

Shravan Shetty, Managing Director, Primus Partners

The markets are trending lower as the probability of war escalating leading to larger disruption and higher energy prices for a longer period increases.

We believe of the prices continue to remain elevated we might move to a phase where higher energy prices will not be transitory but long term in nature which will lead to higher interest rates and demand destruction causing re rating of entire market.

The Nifty50 was trading 2.50 per cent or 595.30 points down at 23,182.50.

The Nifty MidCap and the Nifty SmallCap indices were trading 2.4 per cent and 2.08 per cent down, respectively. 

At 1 pm, the Nifty50 was trading 2.22 per cent or 527.60 points down at 23,150.20, and the Sensex was trading 2.61 per cent or 1,678 points down at 75,019.17. 

Brent crude jumped nearly 6 per cent to Rs 113.8 per barrel in late Asia session as the tension in the Middle East increased after the US President Donald Trump threatened to hit Iran's South Pars field if the latter attack Qatar. This threat followed Iran's attack on a key Qatari natural liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant, which accounts for one fifth of global supply. Brent's May future contract was quoting at $113.23 per barrel, up 5.5 per cent as of 12:21 pm.

A day after HDFC Bank's part-time chairman Atanu Chakraborty tendered his resignation with immediate effect, The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday said it sees no material concerns around the lender's functioning or governance. Read full report here

The Nifty50 was trading 2.26 per cent or 537.80 points down at 23,336.95, and the Sensex was trading 2.22 per cent or 1,703.87 points down at 75,000.26.

Hours after Israel struck Iran's South Pars Gas Field, US President Donald Trump said that Washington "knew nothing" about the attack and that "no more attacks will be made" on the site by Israel. 

The Reserve Bank has taken note of the recent developments in HDFC Bank. A transition arrangement as requested by the Bank has been approved by Reserve Bank

as regards the position of Part Time Chairman of the Bank.

HDFC Bank is a Domestic Systemically Important Bank (D-SIB) with sound financials, professionally run board and competent management team. Basis our periodical assessment, there are no material concerns on record as regards its conduct or governance.

The bank remains well-capitalized and the financial position of the bank remains satisfactory with sufficient liquidity.

Reserve Bank will continue to engage with the Board and management on the way forward.

The Nifty50 was trading 2.15 per cent or 522.40 points down at 23,255.40, and the Sensex was trading 2.25 per cent or 1,722 points down at 74,986.10.

The total market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms dropped to Rs 430.99 trillion from Rs 438.63 trillion at Wednesday's close. Read full report here

Iran War: The government has identified 22 India-bound vessels in the Persian Gulf region for evacuation and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a report by The Hindu. Of these, 20 have been classified as critical to India's energy security

The market-cap of BSE-listed companies declined Rs 7.65 trillion to Rs 430.99 trillion from Rs 438.63 trillion at Wednesday's close.

The Nifty India volatility index jumped 16.7 per cent to 21.84, which indicates that traders fear uncertainty may increase in near-term. It was 14.9 per cent higher at 21.51 as of 9:44 am.

At 10:00 am, the Nifty50 was trading 2.29 per cent or 544.05 points down at 23,238.20, and the Sensex was trading 2.32 per cent or 1,776.34 points down at 74,927.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Securities

The Fed's decision to maintain rates in the 3.5-3.75 per cent band, alongside elevated inflation projections and rising geopolitical tensions around Iran, reinforces a more extended 'higher-for-longer' cycle than markets had anticipated. For India, the key variable remains sustained dollar strength, which could exert pressure on the rupee and potentially revive FII outflows, particularly in debt markets.

India's domestic growth fundamentals continue to provide a cushion against global rate volatility. However, rate-sensitive emerging markets may face intermittent headwinds as expectations of rate cuts in 2026 get deferred. In this environment, investors should brace for elevated volatility, focus on quality exposures, and closely monitor crude oil prices, which remain the critical link between geopolitical risks and India's inflation and current account trajectory.

Among the sectors, Nifty Realty, Auto, Bank, Financial Services, and Consumer Durables fell over 2 per cent each.

As widely anticipated, US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept federal funds rate unchanged at the range of 3.5 per cent-to-3.75 per cent on Wednesday (March 18). The impact of a Fed decision on India is rarely direct. However, it operates through a series of interconnected channels. Read full report here

In a sudden move, HDFC Bank's part-time chairman and independent director Atanu Chakraborty resigned with immediate effect on Wednesday. Read full report here

At the open, Sensex was trading at 75,235.05, down by 1469.08 points. Meanwhile, Nifty was trading at 23,291.85, falling 485.95 points.

InvestorAi Strategic View

Nifty 23,778 ↑0.8%   |   VIX ~19 ↓16% from peak   |   Brent $103/bbl   |   FII -₹52.7K Cr MTD   |   US VIX 23.7 ↑5.8%

The Thesis

InvestorAi has rotated hard into IT large-caps overnight - a decisive shift from yesterday's downstream energy thesis. With VIX cooling below 19 and Nifty grinding higher for a fourth straight session, the models are reading this as a quality-led recovery where dollar-earners with visible earnings and margin expansion attract the re-risking capital. The rupee at 90.5 and the global VIX spiking to 23.7 suggest this isn't risk-on exuberance - it's a flight to earnings certainty in an uncertain world.

Where We're Concentrated

Nearly all conviction is clustered in IT services - four of the top five names are technology exporters. The secondary theme is new-economy platforms with high-margin digital businesses. This is an earnings-visibility trade, not a momentum trade: the models want companies whose revenues are denominiated in dollars and whose cost structures are rupee-based, creating a natural hedge as the currency weakens past 90. The thesis breaks if crude pushes through $110, which would force the RBI into an aggressive defence of the rupee and drive IT multiples lower on rate-hike fears.

Conviction Picks

Highest Conviction

Mphasis (MPHASIS)

The strongest signal in today's book by a wide margin - a mid-cap IT name with Blackstone backing, AI/cloud exposure, and a dollar revenue base that benefits directly from rupee weakness past 90.

Turnaround Play

Wipro (WIPRO)

The restructuring story is gaining traction with five models converging - after years of underperformance, Wipro's margin recovery and new AI consulting wins make it the value re-rating candidate in large-cap IT.

Bellwether

TCS (TCS)

When the models load TCS alongside Mphasis and Wipro, they're calling a sector rotation, not a stock pick - TCS is the market's proxy for the entire Indian IT earnings cycle and anchors the conviction cluster.

Platform Play

PB Fintech (POLICYBZR)

The insurtech platform benefits from the same flight-to-quality dynamic - a high-margin digital business with accelerating profitability that offers growth without commodity or crude risk exposure.

Industrial Anchor

KEI Industries (KEI)

The lone non-tech conviction name - India's cables and wires leader rides the structural electrification and capex supercycle, offering domestic demand insulation from the global risk-off mood.

One Thing to Watch

USDINR at 91. The rupee breach past 90.5 is what's making IT exporters attractive. If it holds above 91, every IT company's margin guidance gets a tailwind. If the RBI intervenes aggressively and pulls it back below 89, the entire thesis unwinds.

The BSE Sensex market cap at the close on Wednesday was Rs 4,39,00,831.84