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'My Friend Narendra...': Decoding Donald Trump's Midnight Birthday Wish For PM

The consensus is that Donald Trump's call was an offer to reset that relationship after months of pouting by an American President miffed over India's refusal to play ball on several issues,

'My Friend Narendra...': Decoding Donald Trump's Midnight Birthday Wish For PM
Prime Minister Narendra Modi greeted by US President Donald Trump at the White House (File).
New Delhi:

US President Donald Trump's late-night phone call to Prime Minister Narendra Modi - ostensibly to wish the PM on his 75th birthday - seems to have injected fresh momentum into a bilateral relationship battered by stand-offs over the 50 per cent tariffs on Indian exports, a faltering trade deal, and White House grumbling that India's purchase of Russian oil, despite sanctions, is feeding the war on Ukraine.

The consensus is the call was an offer to reset that relationship after months of pouting over India's refusal to play ball on several issues, ranging from saying 'yes, Trump was responsible for the Op Sindoor ceasefire (which he was not)' to endorsing him for a Nobel Peace Prize, and the tariff row.

All of this cast quite the pall over what most analysts believe is 'one of the most consequential partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region, if not the world', culminating, perhaps, in Donald Trump denouncing the Indian economy - the fourth largest globally in nominal GDP terms - as "dead".

Mr Trump's phone call, therefore, was significant but there is more to the story. 

Unpacking PM Modi-Trump Phone Call

The most significant aspect, perhaps, was not in the conversation itself; it was in the timing of social media posts after the talk, a 'race' in which PM Modi beat President Trump by 37 minutes.

Mr Modi's X post came in at 10.53 pm. Mr Trump's on Truth Social at 11.30 pm.

Why is this important?

Because Donald Trump, ever the showman and entrepreneur, is always keenly aware of the first-mover advantage. Recall the Truth Social post announcing the Op Sindoor ceasefire, for example.

It was made before either India or Pakistan said anything and fuelled, for weeks afterwards, despite India's strenuous denials, his claims to have engineered the ceasefire.

Recall also the announcement of the Iran-Israel ceasefire in June; clearly neither Tehran nor Tel Aviv knew that particular bomb was going to land since they were busy trading missiles.

So Prime Minister Modi making the first move online in this instance (and let's face it, online is what matters) upset Mr Trump, and he needed to re-establish control.

That, it seems, was evident by his referring to the PM by his first name.

In fact, that was the first time, on social media at least, that Mr Trump has referred to the PM by his first name, which he uses only for Russia's Vladimir Putin and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu.

By contrast, Mr Modi retained the 'President' in his reference and, unlike previous posts, he didn't even refer to Mr Trump as his 'friend', which raised a whole another set of eyebrows.

The second point to unpack here is the two leaders' reference to Ukraine.

According to readouts, Mr Modi reiterated 'support' for Donald Trump's efforts to end the war in Ukraine, a war he promised to end within weeks, if not days, of his being sworn in on January 20.

That reference has been seen as India's reciprocal outreach. Donald Trump's efforts to end the war on Ukraine have been frustrated by a recalcitrant Vladimir Putin and, to some extent, by Moscow being able to sell oil and gas, despite sanctions, to raise crucial funds for the conflict.

The US has, in the past, directly accused India, which buys discounted crude from Russia, of falling in this camp. That was what led Donald Trump to imposing the extra 25 per cent tariff.

RECAP | "Our Friend" But...: Trump Declares 25% Tariffs Plus Penalty On India

Mr Modi's reference to Ukraine has been seen as placating Mr Trump, but without actually committing his administration to anything, including stopping purchase of oil from Russia.

India-US Trade Talks Resume

The Trump-Modi phone call was also a friendly boost to flagging trade talks between the two countries. A US-India bilateral trade agreement, or BTA, has been in the doldrums with Delhi refusing Washington access to price-sensitive agricultural and dairy products markets.

READ | Amid Trade Tensions, A Thaw As Trump Wishes PM On Birthday

PM Modi is keen to protect the large number of farmers, livestock herders, and fishermen and women who rely on this sector for a subsistence living, and has made it clear he will not compromise their economic welfare, particularly with key state elections this year and next.

READ | India, US Hold Trade Talks, Both Sides Describe Them As "Positive"

However, this week a sixth round of talks was held in India, with the US' chief trade negotiator, Brendan Lynch, sitting down with India's Rajesh Agrawal. The outcome is positive, NDTV was told. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said a first set of deals could be ready by November.

June 17 Phone Call Shadow

All of this played out under the shadow of a June phone call in which Mr Modi lay down the law as far as Donald Trump's ceasefire claims and India's position on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir are concerned.

RECAP | "No Trade Talk Or Mediation Offer Amid Pak Conflict": PM To Trump

Since then, in fact, the two leaders had not spoken directly to each other; The New York Times said Mr Modi refused four calls from Mr Trump in that period, something unthinkable for most global leaders.

Instead, PM Modi busied himself in reaching out to China and Russia, with a high-profile visit to the former country for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation signalling a landmark thaw in Beijing ties.

India and China working together - making the 'elephant' and 'dragon' dance - and with Russia in the mix too, would be unacceptable to the US, and that may have prompted the Trump outreach.

READ | 'Modi-Putin-Xi Pic Should Send Chill Down American Spine': US Media

That outreach began with the September 6 social media post in which the American President said he would 'always be friends' with Prime Minister Modi, who responded similarly effusively.

The Tuesday night phone call seemed to add further weight to that outreach, indicating India-US ties are, perhaps, heading back on track.

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