India's Fertiliser Import Dependence Rises. Should Farmers Be Worried?

India's dependence on imported fertilisers has risen sharply at a time when two major geopolitical flashpoints, the conflict in West Asia and Ukraine's expanding attacks on Russian ports and shipping, are threatening global supply chains.

Russia, Oman and Saudi Arabia remain among India's biggest fertiliser suppliers. While Ukrainian drone attacks have increasingly targeted Russian ports and vessels in the Black Sea, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Sea of Oman have raised concerns over shipping disruptions from West Asia.

Despite these risks, the government says fertiliser stocks remain adequate for the ongoing Kharif season. Industry experts, however, warn that while supplies are unlikely to face an immediate crisis, imports could become significantly more expensive if the conflicts intensify.

According to government data, India's fertiliser import dependence increased to 34.5 per cent in FY26, up from 24.4 per cent in FY25. In FY23, the figure stood at 32 per cent.

Will Farmers Face A Fertiliser Shortage?

For now, probably not.

A recent report by credit rating agency CRISIL said India is well placed to source fertilisers and raw materials from alternative suppliers if the situation in West Asia deteriorates. However, it cautioned that imports are likely to become costlier because of higher freight charges, war-risk insurance premiums and rising raw material prices.

A bigger concern would emerge if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is significantly disrupted. India depends heavily on West Asian LNG imports, which are critical for domestic urea production. Any prolonged disruption could therefore affect not just imported fertilisers but also domestic manufacturing.

To reduce these risks, the Centre has begun diversifying procurement through three key measures:
Encouraging long-term supply agreements between Indian companies and overseas suppliers;
Using Indian diplomatic missions to identify alternative exporters; and
Creating a purchasing consortium that allows domestic companies to collectively procure fertilisers and raw materials.

In a written reply in the Lok Sabha, Union Chemicals and Fertilisers Minister J.P. Nadda said the government had taken multiple steps to cushion the impact of global conflicts on fertiliser supplies.

“Despite these disruptions, fertiliser availability in the country remained largely adequate through diversified sourcing and government interventions.”

Ministry data also shows that stocks of subsidised fertilisers, including urea, DAP, MOP and NPK, remain above the assessed requirement for the ongoing Kharif season.

If Stocks Are Adequate, Why Do Shortages Keep Happening?

This is where the story becomes more complicated.

Seasonal fertiliser shortages reported from different states are often less about national availability and more about distribution failures, hoarding and black marketing.

According to the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers, authorities suspended or cancelled more than 4,000 fertiliser licences during FY26. Maharashtra, Punjab, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh accounted for a significant share of the action.

Since April 2026, enforcement officials have conducted 1,43,095 raids, issued 8,060 show-cause notices, suspended or cancelled 2,636 licences, and registered 214 FIRs against defaulters across the country.

The figures suggest that while India currently has adequate fertiliser stocks, ensuring timely availability to farmers remains as much an enforcement challenge as a supply-chain issue.