Heat, Storms And Ballot: India's April Elections Face A New Climate Reality

As nearly 174 million voters prepare to cast their ballots across five Indian states this April, a less visible but increasingly decisive force is shaping the contours of the democratic exercise: climate.

The Assembly Elections in West Bengal, Kerala, Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry, which span 824 constituencies and are supported by more than 2.19 lakh polling stations, will unfold under weather conditions that are no longer routine. With over 2.5 million election officials deployed, the scale is immense. So, too, are the risks.

The rising intensity of heat, humidity and violent pre-monsoon storms is emerging as a quiet but consequential force, one that could shape not only turnout but also the very mechanics of voting itself.

A Season Transformed

April in India has long marked the transition into the pre-monsoon period, a time of building heat occasionally broken by storms. Increasingly, however, that pattern is breaking down.

Data from the India Meteorological Department show that April weather over the past five years has trended decisively toward extremes. Temperatures have remained consistently above normal, with April 2022 among the warmest on record at 1.36°C above average. Subsequent years have brought sharp swings in rainfall, deficits one year, excess the next, alongside a rise in thunderstorms and lightning.

For election-bound states, this volatility translates into tangible risks: overheated voters, flooded roads, disrupted polling stations and strained administrative systems.

Storms In The East, Heat In The South

The immediate forecast underscores the divergence. The IMD predicts widespread rainfall and thundershowers in West Bengal and Assam in the days leading up to polling. These storms, often accompanied by lightning, can disrupt transport, damage infrastructure and deter voters, particularly in rural and flood-prone districts.

In eastern and northeastern India, these pre-monsoon tempests are known as 'Nor'westers' or 'Kalbaisakhi' and are short-lived but intense storms capable of causing outsized damage.

Farther south, a different threat looms. Tamil Nadu and Kerala are bracing for oppressive heat compounded by high humidity. Such conditions raise the risk of "wet-bulb" temperatures, a dangerous combination where the human body struggles to cool itself, increasing the likelihood of heat exhaustion and heatstroke.

Along the eastern coast, including parts of West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, above-normal heatwave days are expected, adding another layer of stress to an already demanding electoral process.

Climate Meets Democracy

Experts say these shifts are no longer anomalies but part of a broader climate pattern.

"Evolving climate conditions could directly impact elections in several ways," said Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather. "Reduced turnout due to discomfort, heightened health risks for voters and polling personnel, and operational disruptions caused by extreme weather events are all real concerns."

Over the past five years, April weather has grown increasingly unpredictable. Temperatures have remained consistently above normal, while rainfall patterns have swung sharply, 20 per cent below normal in 2024, above normal in 2023, and regionally uneven in 2025.

Extreme weather has also taken a measurable human toll. Government data show a rise in deaths linked to natural events, with lightning emerging as the single largest killer among weather-related causes such as heat and flooding. 

Adapting The Electoral Machine

India's election authorities have begun adjusting to this new reality.

The Election Commission of India has expanded early voting hours, typically from 7 am to early evening, to help voters avoid peak heat. Real-time polling station trackers aim to reduce crowding, while provisions for home voting have been extended to certain vulnerable groups.

O. P. Rawat, a former chief election commissioner, stated, "These measures aim to prevent climate conditions from hindering participation."

He further added, "We should now focus on how elections are contributing to climate change. There is a large use of flexes and plastic materials during rallies and public meetings. There is also a lot of fuel consumption during election campaigning. These things need to be curbed. ECI is already taking stock of some things, like one cannot hold motorcycle rallies unless they are granted permission. I am sure the current election commission is thinking more and trying to broaden the prospects of how elections do not interfere with climate concerns. I feel that 'one nation one poll', which might see light in 2034, can solve the climate problem to some extent. It can be decided by the Parliament, if they can hold elections during November, December or January, keeping the Parliament sessions, examinations and weather in mind." 

A Deeper Shift

Underlying the immediate challenges is a longer-term transformation in India's climate system.

Recent research has found that pre-monsoon rainfall patterns have intensified and shifted over the past three decades, driven in part by warming in the Indian Ocean. Rising sea surface temperatures have increased atmospheric moisture and altered convection patterns, making storms more frequent and, in some cases, more severe.

"The Indian Ocean has warmed faster than any other tropical basin," said Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. "This is fundamentally changing how pre-monsoon weather behaves."

The result is a more unstable baseline - one in which heatwaves expand geographically, rainfall becomes less predictable, and extreme events grow more common.

The Question Ahead

In April 2026, the act of voting will remain the same. But the environment in which it occurs is changing - rapidly and perhaps irreversibly. Should climate preparedness be treated as central - not peripheral - to election planning?

What is clear is that climate change is no longer a distant backdrop to elections. It is an active participant, reshaping when, how and under what conditions citizens cast their votes.