121 Seats, 3.7 Crore Votes, Seemanchal Battle: Decoding Bihar Polls Phase 2

The battelines are drawn, positions taken, speeches delivered, and dice cast: in the next few hours, campaigning for the second and last phase of the Assembly polls in Bihar will come to an end. The second phase of polling will take place on Tuesday, and the results will be out on Friday. During this 48-hour silence period, leaders cutting across party lines will look to maximise their gains in the high-voltage election. Based on their inputs about the first phase, they will fine-tune strategies to improve their show in the final leg of this poll fight.

Second Phase In Numbers

A total of 122 constituencies across 20 districts are going to the polls in the second phase of the Bihar election. In the first phase, polling was held in 121 seats across 18 districts. In this phase, a total of 1,302 candidates are in the fight, 136 (about 10 per cent) of them women. Polling will be held in 45,399 centres, and the number of eligible electors is 3.70 crore -- 1.95 crore men and 1.74 crore women.

In the 2020 election, the BJP won 42 out of these 122 seats, followed by RJD (33), JDU (20), Congress (11), and the Left (5). In the 2015 election, when the JDU and RJD were allies, the BJP's seat tally had dropped to 36, and the JDU-RJD-Congress block won 80 out of these 122 seats.

Regional Arithmetic

The 122 seats going to the polls in the second phase are spread across Bihar's central, western, and northern regions. BJP traditionally dominates Tirhut, Saran, and northern Mithilanchal regions. This includes the districts of East Champaran, West Champaran, Sheohar, Sitamarhi and Saran. The JDU, which has been losing ground, has had a strong presence in the Bhagalpur area. The Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, has a dominant base in the Magadh region covering the districts of Gaya, Aurangabad, Nawada, Jehanabad and Arwal. The Congress does not have a strong influence in this region and largely relies on its allies.

The Seemanchal Battleground

Apart from the districts mentioned earlier, the politically sensitive Seemanchal region is going to the polls in the second phase. Twenty-four seats spread across the four districts of Purnea, Araria, Kishanganj, and Katihar are the big battleground of this Bihar election. The Seemanchal districts are home to a big chunk of Bihar's 17 per cent Muslim population. This phase of the election has seen leaders speak of infiltration, extremism, and demographic change, but the Muslim voter, who holds the key to the Seemanchal question, is silent.

In the 2020 election, the BJP won eight Seemanchal seats and its ally JDU secured four, Congress finished with five, and CPIML and RJD won one seat each. AIMIM pulled off a stunner with five wins, but four of its MLAs later switched to RJD. This time too, Seemanchal has witnessed a power-packed campaign by all political parties. From rallies by BJP bigwigs, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, to the Rahul Gandhi-led Voter Adhikar Yatra, all parties have walked the extra mile to woo the Seemanchal voter.

The Caste Question

The Extremely Backward Classes, which constitute 36 per cent of Bihar's population, are likely to play a decisive role in the second phase of the Bihar election. Spread across central and western districts, the EBCs have been Nitish Kumar's trump card over the past two decades. This time, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has tried to reach out to this section. The NDA will also eye non-Yadav OBCs to counter the RJD's loyal Yadav voter base. Then there are the Scheduled Castes, which can play kingmaker in close fights in the Ara, Buxar, and Rohtas belts.