How Corruption Case Against Lalu Yadav Might Affect Bihar Poll Narrative

Corruption charges against RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad Yadav and his son Tejashwi Yadav, a potential opposition chief ministerial candidate in next month's Bihar election could have a big impact on how political parties line up against the ruling BJP-JDU and which way voters swing.

The charges filed against Lalu and Tejashwi Yadav and the former's wife, Rabri Devi, relate to the alleged IRCTC hotel scam. The allegation is that Lalu Yadav, as the Railways Minister in the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government, influenced the tender process for maintenance contracts to two hotels in exchange for three acres of prime land in Patna.

All three have pleaded not guilty and will face trial.

The case against the Yadav clan will test various facets of the opposition Mahagathbandhan's resolve to contest this election together, starting with sharing Bihar's 243 Assembly seats.

Seat-sharing talks had rumbled on for weeks without resolution before the order this morning from Delhi's Rouse Avenue court. Reports indicated the hold-up was partly due to the Congress demanding a much larger share this time; in 2020 the party contested 70 seats but won just 19.

This time, however, the party believes it is capable of winning more, based on the positive response of the Rahul Gandhi-led Voter Adhikar Yatra that criss-crossed the eastern state.

This fresh round of corruption charges could weaken the RJD's hand in these talks.

Also, smaller allies might now hesitate to link up over fears that fighting the election under the shadow of a corruption case could hurt their credibility.

One of the reasons talks were delayed, sources told NDTV, was the family's frequent appearances in court. All three - Lalu, Tejashwi, and Rabri Devi - were in court this morning.

A second possible impact is the battle for voters' minds.

An expected start will be the RDJ slamming the BJP- alliance over the fresh case against Lalu Yadav. Their likely argument will be the case has been fast-tracked to divert attention from Nitish Kumar's failures - such as unemployment, farmers' issues, and lack of development.

Yadav Jr seemed unsurprised at this twist. "The elections are coming, so things like this will happen... We will reach our destination. The people of Bihar are watching," he said.

"We have chosen the path of struggle, and we will reach our destination. "We will fight and win, we are Biharis, we do not fear Baharis (outsiders, a jab at the Bharatiya Janata Party that rules Bihar with Janata Dal United boss Nitish Kumar)," he said after appearing at the Delhi court.

How will the voters react?

That will remain a mystery till after the votes are counted.

But sentiment will likely be divided on this issue, particularly since a section of urban and young voters in constituencies where corruption remains a concern - which Tejashwi Yadav has courted as a key support base - may see this as a setback.

In rural Bihar, however, caste loyalties could still outweigh corruption concerns.

And, in this space the RJD and the Congress, as well as the JDU are expected to turn this issue into competing narratives - injustice and political victimisation vs corruption and nepotism.

The RJD, for its part, will stress to voters that nothing has been proven in a court of law and also hit out at the BJP for using pending cases as political weapons before an election.

The BJP-JDU, meanwhile, will project this as proof that no one is above the law and tell voters 'the corrupt will not be spared', showcasing this as part of their 'clean governance' campaign.

This line of messaging may appeal to urban and first-time voters who value accountability and anti-corruption politics. There is, though, a red line here; if it attacks the RJD too aggressively, it might trigger sympathy for the Yadav family and re-frame the narrative as 'political oppression'.

What happens now?

Now that charges have been framed, the court will continue to examine the evidence against Lalu Yadav and the other accused, including testimony from witnesses from both sides.

The formal trial will begin once the court sets a date.