Analysis: From Hospital Bed, Sharad Pawar Keeps Maharashtra Guessing Over NCP-NDA Move

Hospitalisation is proving to be no constraint for NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar's political manoeuvring. Admitted to a Mumbai hospital due to a chest infection, the veteran politician, who has survived cancer more than once, has kept Maharashtra's political circles guessing over his next move from the bed at Breach Candy.

His meeting with Praful Patel, a leader from the rival Ajit Pawar faction that took away the party name NCP after rebelling in 2023, has led to pointed speculation over the likelihood of a reunification. A day earlier, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, too, called Pawar, when he was initially in a hospital in Pune. Modi reportedly advised Pawar to take rest and leave everything to him and Supriya Sule, Pawar's daughter. This statement is being construed as an indication of Pawar joining the BJP-led NDA at the Centre and the Mahayuti alliance at the state level, ditching the Congress-led INDIA bloc.

Power At Any Cost

For the last six decades, Sharad Pawar has been one of the most unpredictable leaders in Maharashtra's politics, or even India's at large. Even seasoned political observers often struggle to anticipate his next move.

In 2019, Sanjay Raut of the then undivided Shiv Sena famously remarked that one would need a hundred lifetimes to understand how Sharad Pawar's mind works. A popular saying in Maharashtra's political corridors has long been that Pawar might say one thing and do another, and then vice versa.

While it may be difficult to decipher Pawar's political strategies, a look at his major decisions over the years offers some insight into his style.

For Pawar, the primary purpose of a political party is to attain power. Ideology, morality, or other considerations should not stand in the way of achieving that objective. That is why some call him the Machiavelli of Maharashtra, after the Italian Renaissance-era political philosopher Niccolo Machiavelli who is seen as the father of modern political pragmatism.

In 1999, Pawar quit the Congress and formed the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), citing objections to Italy-born Sonia Gandhi's foreign origins. However, after the Maharashtra Assembly election results that same year, he allied with the Congress and joined the government. In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, he became a minister in the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre, after Sonia Gandhi chose not to be PM in favour of Manmohan Singh. At that point, Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin was no longer an obstacle for Pawar.

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Pawar reinforced this political philosophy after the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections. Despite his party finishing third and receiving a mandate to sit in the opposition, he successfully brought the NCP into the state government. To achieve that, he had no hesitation in joining hands with his long-time political rival, the Shiv Sena, besides the Congress.

Earlier, during the 2014 Assembly elections, Pawar surprised many by helping the BJP. The BJP and Shiv Sena had contested separately, and tensions between the two parties were high. The BJP, though the single-largest party, lacked the numbers needed to secure a majority. Pawar then announced unconditional support to the BJP government, saying he wanted to prevent Maharashtra from facing another election. During the trust vote, his 41 MLAs walked out of the Assembly, reducing the effective majority mark and helping the BJP government survive.

Relationship With Narendra Modi

The following year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the Pawars' home turf of Baramati and publicly described Sharad Pawar as his political mentor. In 2017, the Modi government awarded Pawar the Padma Vibhushan, the second highest civilian honour in India.

Pawar once again demonstrated his political skills in November 2019 when he thwarted the first rebellion led by his nephew Ajit Pawar, who died in a plane crash in January 2026.

By threatening action under the anti-defection law, back in 2019 Sharad Pawar managed to swiftly bring back all the legislators who had sided with Ajit Pawar, even after the latter took the oath as deputy chief minister with BJP's Devendra Fadnavis as chief minister in a regime that lasted barely three days.

The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance of the Shiv Sena, NCP, and Congress formed the government then, with Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray sworn in as the chief minister and Ajit Pawar becoming his deputy.

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Yet, Ajit went back to a BJP-led alliance in 2023, a year after the Shiv Sena imploded and the BJP formed a government with Eknath Shinde's Sena. Sharad Pawar kept his distance. After the 2024 elections, Fadnavis became chief minister with Shinde and Ajit as deputies.

Yet, observers would not be surprised if Sharad Pawar's faction too now joins the NDA. Since Ajit Pawar's second rebellion, the senior Pawar's party has been in a weakened position. Its performance in the last Lok Sabha and Assembly elections has been underwhelming. In addition, after Eknath Shinde's successful further split of the Shiv Sena's Uddhav faction this year, Sharad Pawar may fear losing more of his remaining MPs and MLAs.

Aligning with the ruling establishment has obvious advantages: access to power and, perhaps more importantly, the party's survival.

Supriya Sule's Role

While continuing to fight a legal battle over the official name of the party and the election symbol with his late nephew's faction -- now led by his wife Sunetra Pawar, who is deputy chief minister -- 85-year-old Pawar softened his stand during an interview with an English daily last year. He said a section of his party's leaders believe it should reunite with the NCP of Ajit Pawar. However, Pawar remarked he couldn't take a call on the issue and it would be decided by the next-generation leaders like Supriya Sule.

READ | "Internal Matter": Supriya Sule On Sunetra Pawar-Prashant Kishor Meet Amid Rift Buzz

Even if the two factions don't merge, there is talk that NCP (SP) is contemplating joining the NDA. It is speculated that Sharad Pawar softened his stand as he didn't want another revolt in his party. Moreover, throughout his political career, he has succeeded in keeping his party in power by any means. If a merger of the two NCPs comes with an opportunity for his faction to become part of the government at the state and central level, Sharad Pawar is unlikely to miss it. He had given some indication of support to the central government by opposing the Congress demand for a special session of Parliament over 'Operation Sindoor' last year. He also lashed out at the Shiv Sena (UBT) for opposing the all-party delegations sent to various countries.

Parth Pawar Under Scanner

Although after Ajit Pawar's demise in a plane crash his wife Sunetra took the reins of the party, it is her son Parth Pawar who calls the shots. Parth was elected to the Rajya Sabha earlier this year. Heavy discontent is reported against Parth within the NCP. Off the record, many party functionaries complain about humiliation and ill-behaviour. Hence, a section of leaders within the party are of the view that both the factions should reunite and the unified party should be led by a "mature" leader, Sharad Pawar.

If the NCPs do come together and join the NDA, it would lead to an existential crisis for the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and weaken the INDIA bloc. It was Sharad Pawar who played a key role in forming these alliances at the state and central levels.