147 Seats For NDA In Bihar, Exit Polls Predict. Did Huge Voter Turnout Help?

The Bihar exit polls are here. And all of them, nine in number, are predicting a huge National Democratic Alliance or NDA win in the state polls.

The state, which voted in two phases (November 6 and 11), saw record voter turnout. Bihar has historically been hamstrung by low voter turnout and tight contests.

The average of the exit polls indicates that the ruling NDA will get 152 and the mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance 84 seats. 

Here's a look at the seat prediction for NDA:
Chanakya Strategies: 130-138
Dainik Bhaskar: 145-160
DV Research: 137-152
JVC: 135-150
Matrize: 147-167
P-Marq: 142-162
People's Insight: 133-148
Peoples Pulse: 133-159
TIF Research 145-163

Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong.

The mahagathbandhan led by Rashtriya Janata Dal includes the Congress party, the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (CPI-ML) led by Deepankar Bhattacharya, the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM), and Mukesh Sahani's Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP).

Nitish Kumar, except for Jitan Ram Manjhi for a brief period, has been the Chief Minister since 2005, though the alliance partners have changed over time.

He pulled a switcheroo in 2013 and went with Lalu Yadav, once a rival, ending a 17-year alliance with the BJP. Having won the 2015 polls in alliance with RJD and Congress, he resigned in 2017 and rejoined the BJP-led NDA.

The alliance lasted through 2019, but in 2022, he again left the NDA. By January 2024, citing delays and leadership issues within the opposition, Nitish Kumar returned to the NDA. Since then, he has reiterated that he is not leaving the BJP.

The BJP and the JDU are contesting 101 seats each. It is for the first time that both parties are contesting an equal number of seats since 2005. The current arrangement underscores parity between the JDU and the BJP, which has historically been the junior partner in the alliance.