This Article is From Oct 14, 2014

Will BJP's Solo Gamble Succeed?

(Rahul Shrivastava is Senior Editor, Political Affairs at NDTV)

The May 16 majority for Narendra Modi stumped the pollsters. But they drew consolation from the fact that the May Lok Sabha verdict had improved the accuracy of their forecast in October when Maharashtra votes.

But as Maharashtra sits hours away from voting, those who were planning to predict an outcome "eyes wide shut" are pulling their hair out. The two-horse race has been replaced by a four-and-a-half cornered contest - with the BJP-Shiv Sena and Congress-NCP alliances collapsing. The half is Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) which contested 10 Lok Sabha seats but did not win any. Worse was that its vote share dropped to 1.5 per cent from 4.1 per cent in 2009 when it had won 13 seats.

25 years ago, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance was constructed by Bal Thackeray, LK Advani and Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Its demise came with the rise of Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and Uddhav Thackeray as negotiators.

Narendra Modi has taken the first big gamble of his career as prime minister in Maharashtra. The BJP's "our way or the highway" dumping of the Shiv Sena, which wanted to be the dominant player in the partnership, can have serious repercussions for the Modi-Amit Shah duo.

An electoral setback will be called a referendum on the PM who completes only five months in the post on October 26. Mr Modi escaped blame for the party's loss in the UP by-elections last month, but if the BJP loses in Maharashtra, not only will political rivals pounce, BJP cadres and the RSS will be left doubting their mega stars.

The duo has however based the gamble on political logic and is backing it with a game plan. During the campaign the BJP pushed brand Modi. Also, to cash in on an anti-incumbency sentiment against the Congress-NCP government and to build on the spectacular May national election win, the BJP's top brass has been camping and campaigning in Maharashtra in full force.

Party strategists have roped in central and state leaders from at least 12 states, fixed area wise responsibility and drawn an accountability chart.

Maharashtra was divided into 50 clusters. Each cluster has five to 10 seats. Each cluster is headed by leaders, many of whom single-handedly have spearheaded poll efforts in states. So petroleum minister and one time in charge of Bihar, Dharmendra Pradhan, textile minister Santosh Gangwar, who is from UP, Agriculture Minister Radhamohan Singh from Bihar, junior minister in Railways and UP leader Manoj Sinha headed these clusters.

Sunil Bansal who plotted the BJP's campaign in UP during the Lok Sabha polls, has been camping in Maharashtra as the key coordinator.

The state was further divided into 280 sub-clusters. MPs, MLAs from several states, state organisation secretaries and state leaders were given charge of these sub units. They have supervised campaign, gathered and dispatched feedback, identified issues and on October 15, they are expected to bring voters to the booth.

The BJP leaders have addressed 715 rallies during the campaign. Union Minister Nitin Gadkari has been denying reports that he may be BJP's chief ministerial pick if the party gets the seats, but he tops the chart with 104 rallies. To ensure that there is no doubt among the voters confused by the BJP-Sena split about what the issues are and who is the face of the campaign, Mr Modi has addressed 27 rallies in Maharashtra. Amit Shah addressed 20 and Rajnath Singh 12.

So keen is the BJP to win Maharashtra, that in the last leg of the campaign, either Mr Modi or Amit Shah were in Maharashtra to ensure high cadre morale and cadre response.

The party's 86 "digital vans" or mobile campaign vehicles with large LCD screens have visited 10 villages everyday holding close to 8000 shows in rural Maharashtra - each show focusing on Mr Modi. Each vehicle was fitted with GPS so that handlers knew exactly what the vans did and where.

The party had dispatched its media convener and party secretary Shrikant Sharma three months ago to the state. Mr Sharma identified the cities which will be media hubs. He assessed what each hub needed, what was available and what needed to be supplied. Most press conferences have been used to show case the candidates, central leaders or local leaders, not party spokespersons.

All BJP chief ministers have campaigned in the state. MPs from several states have been deployed in the field. The effort has been micro managed - indicated by the fact that at the rallies - only leaders from Maharashtra have shared dais with central leaders.

Cleverly the saffron party orchestrated a Modi vs the rest contest. On the last two days of the campaign, the Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena added to this polarisation by targeting BJP over running PM Modi's address at New York's Madison Square Garden via paid slots on Marathi news channels.

To ensure the Shiv Sena doesn't get a sympathy vote, Mr Modi has not thrown a single barb in his rallies at the Sena. He has targeted only the NCP-Congress alliance, talked corruption, good governance and development. The BJP hopes that if it manages to portray Shiv Sena as a second rung player - Sena supporters may decide to vote for the BJP.

Speaking to media men most leaders sound positive. Some celebrate the fact that the party is now free to fight more than 119 seats it used to get in the BJP-Sena alliance. Most leaders feel that the split has generated greater cadre stimulation in seats which were called "Sena's quota."

Who campaigns where has been worked out as per demographic settlements. In the Mumbai-Thane region there are 60 seats. Here non-Marathi voters now outstrip "locals". The BJP pushed its leaders from UP, Bihar, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Goa, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka (including BS Yeddyurappa) in a big way. The idea was that people from these states voted for Mr Modi in Lok Sabha and may go for a repeat in Maharashtra polls. This theory runs into weak ground as one moves into Marathwada region but the BJP seems to be on a stronger wicket in the crucial Vidarbha landscape.

The BJP has fielded all sitting 46 MLAs. But to frustrate the NCP - all its turncoats have been fielded in NCP strongholds.

BJP leaders claim the Sena forced the party to go solo. But a pattern has emerged during these state polls. When the Sena-BJP alliance was in trouble, Amit Shah did not step out to save it. In Haryana he let the party's alliance with Kuldeep Bishnoi's Haryana Janhit Congress decay slowly. In both poll-bound states, the BJP, it seems, is indicating when the going is good - walk alone. Will solo mean success - for Mr Modi and his BJP - voters will be deciding on October 15.

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