London:
US President Barack Obama may face his first big scandal pretty soon, according to a leading political scientist.
Based on his mathematical formula, Brendan Nyhan of Michigan University has predicted in his report to 'Center for Politics' website that President Obama's administration is set to be rocked by a major controversy soon.
The political scientist defines scandal as the "elite perception of misbehaviour whose occurrence is also influenced by political and media context".
And, according to him, the likelihood of a scandal hitting America's first black President may unfold before the 2012 presidential election, rising between 95 and 100 per cent by June of next year, the Daily Mail reported.
"Obama has been extremely fortunate: My research on presidential scandals shows that few presidents avoid scandal for as long as he has," says his report based on interpretation of data from presidential scandals between 1977 and 2008.
Nyhan says his research is supported by the lack of support among Republicans for the Obama administration, and predicts the US President will follow "a similar trajectory to Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton (who both suffered significant first-term scandals)."
He noted discontent among Republicans could contribute to encourage "opposition legislators and members of the news media to promote allegations of misconduct" against President Obama who has been in office for a little over 24 months.