Bihar is the new jigsaw puzzle for the political establishment. Lines have already been drawn. Two opinion polls have come in, one giving advantage to the BJP, and the other to the Nitish-Lalu-Congress combine. Political pundits and seasoned journalists are confused. The assessment of the situation also has caste overtones and accordingly the war between Jungleraj 2 and Mandalraj 2 is being pontificated. There seems to be nothing normal in this war, as stakes are high for the protagonists on both sides.
For Mr Prime Minister, it is time to regain his lost glory after the Delhi debacle, and for Mr. Chief Minister, it's time to prove that he is the true champion of Mandal politics who has successfully synthesized caste with development. At stake is also the future of the religion-based politics of BJP and the hidden agenda of the RSS and its affiliates. Bihar will also decide if the country after so many years of its independence has really forsaken pluralistic politics and its liberal social climate, or are recent developments just a temporary disruption? These elections will also send a signal to the global audience that India, as a nation, despite a right-wing tilt, has not forgotten its roots and is still a vibrant democracy.
Bihar with its rich history has lagged behind in the race of development and was till recently termed a
bimaru (sick) state but in the last ten years, it has leapt to emerge as one of the fastest-growing states. The credit undoubtedly goes to Nitish Kumar. It's still a feudal society with only a few urban centers. Literacy is improving but is still much below the national average. Mobile penetration still leaves a lot to be desired. And caste is still the prime denominator of identity. Bihar was the land of the best and worst experiments of post-Mandal caste politics; no wonder, unlike in Delhi, no discussion is complete without the caste analysis of the state. Much before the election was announced, the BJP tried to stitch a winning caste combination. Jeetan Ram Manjhi was lured into its fold by the BJP with a design to wean away the most Dalit amongst Dalits, a caste that Nitish Kumar had cultivated as his vote bank after becoming the Chief Minister. The only consideration for making Jeetan Ram Manjhi as the Chief Minister of Bihar by Nitish Kumar after the parliamentary debacle was to consolidate his "Maha Dalit" vote bank which seems to have boomeranged very badly.
During the 2014 elections, the BJP successfully managed to have a coalition with Upendra Kushwaha and Ram Vilas Paswan. The idea was to dent Nitish Kumar's OBC and Dalit vote bank. The BJP got its arithmetic right and the NDA returned with an unprecedented 31 seats out of 40. Those who are advocating the BJP's win in the upcoming election too are confident that Manjhi joining its fold has further strengthened this caste formation. In their opinion, Modi's popularity, coupled with the announcement of a special package of one lakh twenty five thousand crores will do wonders for Mr Prime Minister. Modi supporters are also relying on the belief that Lalu's company has severely damaged the reputation of Nitish as a prime mover of development, and that will be of great advantage to the BJP.
Nitish supporters are equally confident of his victory. After Manjhi's embarrassment, Nitish was smart enough to align with his bitter rival of two decades, Lalu Prasad Yadav. Lalu has a solid vote base of "MY" - that is "Muslims and Yadavs." This vote base has never deserted Lalu. And both these social bases carry around 32% of the total vote share. The Congress is a marginal player in Bihar, but by joining Nitish and Lalu, the secular vote will not split. Mulayam's party is a nonexistent party and won't have any impact. On paper, this combination looks very formidable, but politics is not a simple game of arithmetic but of a cocktail of chemistry.
In my opinion, the arguments by both the camps are impressive and look solid. But there is a slight problem. They are outdated. Politics in India has moved beyond traditional thinking. I am not denying that caste is not a reality. I am also not denying that caste combinations do tilt the balance, but a new society has also emerged in Bihar like in other parts of the country whose voting behaviour is defined by modern sensibilities and considerations. This class was insignificant not long ago but in post-liberalisation India, this class is growing enormously with each passing year. It was this class that made Modi the Prime Minister and gave the BJP a simple majority. It was this class which made Nitish the darling of the people and won two consecutive elections for him. Similarly it also made unassailable Modi in Gujarat, Shivraj Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh, Raman Singh in Chattisgarh, Sheila Dikishit in Delhi, and the Congress-NCP combine in Maharashtra. It was this class which propelled AAP into a gravity-defying orbit and won them 67 seats out of 70.
Post-liberalisation open-society has given ascendence to personalities over individuals and leaders over parties. This new class detests traditional corrupt politics and demands accountability from its leaders. It appreciates those who can deliver. During the 2014 elections, the people of Delhi had openly told us that they would vote for Modi at the centre, but for Delhi they will elect Arvind. We lost all the seven parliamentary seats but won 67 in the assembly elections. In the last ten years, Nitish Kumar has delivered on his promises to Bihar. He has pulled Bihar from the jaws of jungle Raj. Improvement in law and order has given a new lease of life to people of Bihar. Roads which had disappeared in Lalu Raj have come back. Nitish's special focus on girls' education has given the iconic picture of young girls riding on bicycles on well-made roads. Doctors who once had left Bihar in bulk due to extortion and other threats have reappeared in primary health centers in rural areas; deserted health centers are now buzzing with patients. The migration form Bihar to Punjab and Haryana has stopped. The supply of electricity has improved. Though he has failed in curbing corruption and putting industrialisation in fast-forward mode, in public perception, this is a leader who has delivered and has a proven track record.
To Nitish's advantage, the BJP has not been able to showcase any leader of his stature as a Chief Minister. Their only hope is Mr Prime Minister. But Modi can't be the Chief Minister of Bihar and his record of appointing Chief Ministers in Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra has not given any reason to rejoice for his supporters. They are proving to be puppets. Bihar loves strong leaders and knows they can't risk their future for an unknown entity. The BJP, the original advocate of the presidential form of democracy, has forgotten its own logic. Bihar will elect a leader who has delivered and can look the people in the eye.
(Ashutosh joined the Aam Aadmi Party in January 2014.)Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.