The mountain has heaved. And produced the tiniest mouse. What's with our media, I am at a loss to understand. Every time Modi travels abroad, such an atmosphere is built up as to suggest that something dramatic, unanticipated, with the most far-reaching consequences is in the offing. And when nothing of note happens, they lather themselves into a frenzy over the next visit abroad as if something dramatic, unanticipated, with the most far-reaching consequences is in the offing.
And then when nothing of note happens...and so on and so forth.
Thus with Modi's China visit. The headlines and the shrieking of anchors on the eve of the visit suggested that the trip was "historic", full of a rich "symbolism" heralding a "breakthrough" on the border dispute, signalling India's emergence as a recognised regional, even global, "power", and that China would gracefully yield centre-stage to the upcoming giant, India. The proof proffered was that the Chinese President would be thrusting protocol aside to travel out of Beijing to the ancient, history-imbued town of Xi'an to receive Modi and walkabout the town with him.
Everyone forgot that a visit to China without going to Xi'an is like a visit to India without a trip to Agra. Not only is virtually every Indian VIP taken there, Xi'an was inevitably included in Rajiv Gandhi's truly "historic" and "breakthrough" visit to China in December 1988. How can Xi'an not be included in the itinerary when Huen Tsang (as we learned to spell his name at school) was from Xi'an and took Buddhism with him from Nalanda to his home town? Also, since Modi during the election campaign had shown that he could not tell Takshila from Nalanda, perhaps the subtle Chinese were signaling something significant by beginning their education of the Indian Prime Minster by receiving him in Xi'an. The implied slight was cleverly covered up by pointing to Xi'an being the home-town of their present President, thus lending a personal touch to the reception. Of course, Deng Xiaoping did not receive Rajiv in Xi'an - for the good reason that Deng's mother had failed to travel to Xi'an to give birth to Deng there. But that apart, while it would be churlish to overlook the fact that President Xi did break protocol to receive Modi in Xi'an, overplaying the friendly gesture to make it seem as if special honours were being reserved for the Indian PM because something special was imminently going to happen was so off the mark that 24 hours later the Joint Statement (and it was no more than that - just a "statement", not a "declaration", not an "agreement", just an ordinary, run-of-the mill "statement") said nothing on the border that had not been said before, ad nauseum.
I remember the same mistake being made when Margaret Thatcher, the British Prime Minister, broke protocol to receive Rajiv Gandhi at Heathrow on his first visit to the "sceptered isle". The irrepressible RK Karanjia, founder-editor of Blitz, who was in the PM's media team, ran the headline "Britannia waives the Rules"! But far from the personal gesture leading to special warmth, differences surfaced the minute she discovered that Rajiv was not a "supply-sider" like her in economic policy and that on the bitter question of ending apartheid in South Africa, she had met her match. Gestures do not add up to policy changes.
All that emerged from Modi's conversations with the President and PM of China was a reiteration of the assertion that the border dispute requires a "political solution". Obviously. The alternative is a "military solution" - and everyone but retired generals with bristling moustaches on TV know that a military solution is no solution. We can go to the brink of war - if we are stupid enough to do that - but any attempt by either side to find a "military solution" would spell disaster. The border can only be solved when India stops insisting that every stray strand of Mother India's hair has to be saved from the grasping Chinese, and the Chinese recognize that impossible demands like claiming all of Arunachal Pradesh as "South Tibet" will not play.
When, if ever, such good sense prevails on both sides of the border, then perhaps a "political solution" would prove feasible. Meanwhile, the sensible thing to do is to keep the border under negotiation while we get on with everything else. That was what Rajiv Gandhi achieved in December 1988, which is why his visit was a "historic breakthrough".
And Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee, now the Rashtrapati, followed through six years later, with the 'Agreement on Peace and Tranquillity at the Border' that has kept moustchioed generals from doing something stupid. That too has proved historic. Nineteen rounds of conversation between high-level Special Envoys of the two countries have kept the border tranquil, if not resolved. Differences have not spilled over into armed conflict.
Compared to those achievements, Modi's visit has concluded with no more than platitudes. It should not have been expected that there would be anything more than platitudes. For these platitudes disguise the fact that so long as platitude follows platitude, bombs will not be following bombs. That is maturity. Which is why every Prime Minister following Rajiv has made the trip to China. And every Chinese Prime Minister has flown the skies from Beijing to Delhi. That is necessary to keep the ship on even keel. To that extent, Modi's annual pilgrimage to Beijing was required and is to be welcomed.
But pretending that $22 billion of deals for India is comparable to the $46 billion that terrorism-exporting Pakistan has got from China is to kid ourselves. China remains Pakistan's best friend. That need be no cause for concern if we bring normalcy to our relationship with Pakistan. It is Indian hostility to Pakistan that gives China the opportunity to needle us there. A sensible policy would be to prioritize the normalization of our relations with Pakistan over every other foreign policy imperative. But Modi has needlessly blocked that route. And, therefore, President Xi's visit to Pakistan on the eve of Modi's visit to China must be chalked up against Modi.
He has travelled abroad 18 times in his first 12 months in office. Why not a few Indian villages in distress for a change?
(
Mani Shankar Aiyar is a Congress MP in the Rajya Sabha.)
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