Islamabad:
Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari returned from Dubai early on Friday morning and his office says he is not worried about the political crisis that is gripping his country. Mr Zardari's government and Pakistan's powerful military have been in confrontation mode over the last few days, fuelling fears of a coup. There has also been pressure on the government to step down and early elections seem a distinct possibility.
After fast-paced developments and hardening positions through the week, the focus now is on a hearing on Monday in the Supreme Court, where the government has been charged with inaction on cases of corruption against President Zardari. The Supreme Court has earlier warned that action could be taken against the President and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani for failing to reopen the high-profile corruption cases.
Before that, the country's Parliament is scheduled to meet today in an emergency session and vote to express support for the Zardari government; caught between a hostile military and a Supreme Court that is said to be backed by the army, the government wants to display that it enjoys a democratic majority.
Mr Zardari's trip to Dubai yesterday has been described as a personal trip to attend a wedding. He had traveled last month to Dubai for medical reasons, triggering rumors that he was on the verge of resigning. Asked today whether Mr Zardari was concerned about the challenges his government faced, his spokesman Farhatullah Babar said, "Absolutely not. Why should he be?"
As Mr Zardari left the country yesterday, Army chief Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani met his top commanders, but fears of a military coup seem to have ebbed for now wth analysts saying that early elections are a more plausible outcome of the crisis. The analysts say that Gen Kayani doesn't want a coup because the army is fighting Islamist militants, the country is facing economic ruin and seizing power would trigger domestic and international criticism. But they say the generals may be happy to allow the Supreme Court to dismiss Mr Zardari if it can find a "constitutional" way to do so.
"Better sense will prevail. There will be no coup," said analyst Imtiaz Gul. "The centre of gravity basically is the Supreme Court right now and if anything at all (is carried out) against the government it will move from within the Supreme Court, it will not come from within the army." He said all "the indicators are for early elections."
The army erupted in fury on Wednesday over public criticism from Prime Minister Gilani. He told the Chinese media, at a time when Gen Kayani was visiting China, that the chiefs of the army and main intelligence agency, the ISI, had acted in "an unconstitutional and illegal" manner while making submissions to the Supreme Court on the memogate scandal - the bizarre and controversial case of an unsigned memo sent to the US military to seek its help in weakening Pakistan's military soon after the raid that killed Osama bin Laden last year.
The memo has pitted the army against President Asif Ali Zardari's weak civilian administration, and the Supreme Court is now tasked with deciding if the government endorsed the note, and if so, if it can remain in power.
The army warned that Mr Gilani's comments could have "grievous consequences for the country", triggering the immediate sacking of defence secretary Lt Gen Naeem Lodhi, who was considered too close to the generals. The Cabinet Secretary Nargis Sethi has been given additional charge of Defence Secretariat but there are rumbles from the military that it will not cooperate with the new functionary. Sethi is seen as close to PM Gilani.
Pakistan has been under military dictatorships for about half its history since independence in 1947, its civilian leaders thrown out in three coups.
General elections had been expected in early 2013, but the predicted date has crept forward as the memo scandal has rumbled on and are now tipped for 2012, with some saying they could take place in the first half of the year.