Mojtaba Khamenei Takes Over, But Iran's Power Is No Longer In One Man's Hands

For decades, Iran's Supreme Leader had almost total control. But now that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed, the person replacing him, his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, likely won't have that same 'untouchable' status. He will have to share power more than his father did.

Over the years, power in Iran has quietly moved away from just one person and toward a "collective" or a network of powerful groups. These include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which have gained significant influence due to their control over military force; the intelligence-security apparatus, which handles spying and internal security; and the business elites who control the money.

The Iranian system, known as Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), has been gradually evolving. The Iran war has been waging on for 12 days now, and it has only accelerated the process.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Forces (NEZSA) on October 18, 2022
Photo Credit: AFP

There is no time for one person to make every single decision. In a crisis, the institutions that actually control the guns and the information, like the military, naturally take the lead. This makes the government run more like a 'security bureaucracy' than a religious monarchy.

Decisions are now made by a web of powerful insiders working together to ensure the regime survives the war.

While the office of the Supreme Leader will likely remain for religious and political legitimacy, the actual governing of Iran is becoming more securitised and institutionalised, moving away from the "personal authority" model of the past.

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"The Islamic Republic had been evolving toward a system in which power was increasingly exercised through interlocking networks rather than through the purely personal authority of one office, even if the supreme leader remained the apex of legitimacy," Babak Vahdad, a researcher and analyst on Iranian dynamics and Shiite Islam, told Newsweek.

"Khamenei's death in the middle of a war accelerates this process," Vahdad said.

"In practical terms, this almost certainly increases the relative weight of actors such as the IRGC, the intelligence-security apparatus, and key regime coordinating bodies, not necessarily because they formally replace the office of the supreme leader, but because crisis management favours institutions that control force, information, and operational continuity", Vahad added.

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In an interview with Axios, Trump said that Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of late Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, succeeding his father as the new head of the Islamic republic is "unacceptable" and that he wants someone who would "bring harmony and peace to Iran".

Trump said that making someone a leader who would continue Khamenei's policies would force the US to be back to war "in five years".

When asked who could replace Khamenei, Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that, "Most of the people we had in mind are dead."

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Vahdad said that Trump's criticism of Mojtaba Khamenei increased support for the newly elected Supreme Leader. "The IRGC is pushing his standing especially after Trump's latest statements against him, which definitely increased his support even beyond IRGC network," Vahdad said.

Iran's Assembly of Experts has chosen Mojtaba Khamenei as the country's new leader. Despite being just a mid-level cleric, he is believed to have significant influence over Iran's security forces and powerful businesses that were once associated with his father.

Israel had threatened, ahead of the announcement, to strike whoever was chosen. It offered no follow-up.