Russia is expanding its conflict with the West beyond the battlefields of Ukraine, new research has revealed. The most serious danger in Europe this year will come from a growing hybrid war between Russia and NATO, according to Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2026 report.
The war in Ukraine is expected to grind on through 2026 with no clear breakthrough. Russia will continue its slow, costly push for territory while striking civilian centres. Ukraine, under increasing pressure and facing severe manpower shortages, will respond with deeper strikes inside Russia. This makes the conflict more unstable than in previous years and raises the risk of escalation on both sides.
Beyond Ukraine, Russia is opening a second front against NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). The report warns that Moscow will sharply increase gray-zone operations across Europe. These include cyberattacks, sabotage of railways and energy infrastructure, drone incursions, airspace violations, GPS jamming at airports, and interference in elections.
These actions are designed to weaken European support for Ukraine while staying below the threshold that would trigger NATO's collective military response.
Russian President Vladimir Putin sees hybrid warfare as the most effective way to pressure Europe. Russia's economy is under strain from sanctions and prolonged war spending, while European funding continues to help Ukraine fight on. Undermining that support has become an important part of Moscow's strategy.
Ukraine, though, is likely to escalate long-range strikes on Russian energy and export infrastructure to impose economic costs on Moscow. As Kyiv grows more desperate, these actions could become bolder, giving the Kremlin justification to intensify retaliation against Ukraine and its European backers.
A major change in 2026 will be NATO's response, the report reveals.
After years of restraint, the alliance is preparing to push back more actively against Russian provocations. European members are discussing tougher air policing, armed surveillance drones, and stronger cyber operations. This also increases the risk of miscalculation.
Russia is unlikely to back down. While Moscow wants to avoid a direct war with NATO, it views both the war in Ukraine and the hybrid campaign against Europe as vital to its future and to Putin's grip on power.
