It's another strange story from Pakistan. Rawalpindi chose to use Chinese-made aircraft to bomb its own people in tribal areas that have had the misfortune of sitting astride routes and geographies that Pakistan used for decades for its own terrorist operations in Afghanistan. Now that the worm has turned and the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) attacks it apparently from Afghanistan, Islamabad is now bombing the area to end the hellfire that was started by none other than itself. It's all par for the course in Pakistan, which shouts "murder" when Gaza is bombed but has no compunctions whatsoever in killing defenceless people of its own.
The Bombing In Tirah
The latest iteration of Pakistan's brutal operations occurred in the Tirah valley, which is inhabited by Orakzai and Afridi Pashtuns and lies in extremely mountainous territory that runs towards the Afghan border. Pakistan used Chinese aircraft to bomb a village using the LS-6, a glide bomb of 2006 vintage that is supposed to be a precision-guided weapon developed by Luoyang Electro-Optics Technology Development Centre (EOTDC), a subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC). Not so much precision perhaps.
The attack killed more than thirty, including women and children. The high casualties could have been because the strike was aimed at a Tehrik-e-Taliban bomb-making facility, and thus led to multiple explosions. But then, even a child would have known that hitting a bomb factory could cause damage all around. That, however, doesn't seem to bother the Pakistanis much. After all, they've been doing this for years, particularly after 2007, in a series of at least eight major military operations - we're not even counting the smaller offshoots - which used aircraft, artillery, and most other means possible against the hapless people. Earlier, journalists were taken on tours of these areas, where they saw roofs upturned in an effort to encourage what the army would call 'transparency'. It's only gotten worse since then, with operations growing against what Pakistan calls 'kharijites' or 'Fitna Al Khawarij', a derogatory term that implies that the war is against persons who don't follow the "true faith" in Islam.
It won't wash. Everyone, including local police forces, is tired of this double-dealing.
Even The Police Are Rebelling
This salient region, which encompasses the Kurram and areas like the Parachinar border, has been in flames for decades. It offers the shortest route to reach Kabul and, predictably, was one of the launching points for Pakistan's terror sponsorship into Afghanistan. All this has complicated local divisions and issues, even as hundreds of refugees are settled in village lands. Last year, police in Lakki Marwat, about a six-hour drive from Tirah valley, revolted against Pakistan army operations, noting that if counter-terrorism was the goal, then they could do it far better themselves. The point was made in the simplest fashion - that alienating the locals with bombing and artillery could hardly provide intelligence that could nab a few.
That's not all. Many of the disputes that continue to cause inter-tribal tensions - and between Shias and Sunnis - have been fomented by the Pakistani state. This includes the time when Rawalpindi patronised the Haqqanis, who, in turn, put the (Shia) Turi tribe under siege for four years from 2007 to 2011. But Haqqani was the ISI's baby, and he pretty much ruled the area. After that came the contrary case of the then Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Hakim Ullah Mehsud, who allocated disputed land in Marghai Cheena to the Chamkani tribe. In other words, locals have been pulled in different directions by the 'strategic' fancies of the Pakistan army, and then bombed for it. Here's another point: Hakimullah was eventually killed by a US drone strike in exchange for the Pakistanis outing a few Al Qaeda terrorists. So, don't expect the United States, especially under Trump, to call out the Pakistanis for their rampant cruelty. They've been part of this game for years.
The Peacemakers Are In Jail
The bitterest truth of all is that the Pashtuns have been trying to end the cruel cycle of events that first used them against Afghanistan and now 'protects' them against Taliban anger. The Pashtun Tahafuuz Movement (PTM), led by the charismatic Manzoon Pashteen, has been entirely peaceful, calling for an end to all operations by the army and the TTP. A massive 'jirga' last year - which was obstructed in all manner of ways by state - decided that they would not entertain (or pay) either the TTP or the army, that they should be allowed free movement across the border, and that a delegation would be sent to Afghanistan to settle problems, since cadres of TTP are basically from these areas. But this was not to be. PTM leaders were cast into prison and the army went on with its 'operations'. In normal military logic, Pashteen should have been befriended by the powers that be and made into a 'resistance' point. That didn't happen.
The truth is this: the Pashtuns are seen as the 'other' by the highly racist Pakistan army. It's Punjabis or nothing.
The International Games Are On
Taliban leaders have long been advising the Pakistanis to sort out their own internal rifts rather than blame them for the TTP. It indeed may be true that these groups stay in adjoining areas across the border, but the point here is that Kabul, itself pulled in different directions by tribal and foreign loyalties, has little control over much of the outskirts of the country. It also has much to do with fighting the Islamic State, which is dead against it, and at least one part of which is backed by the Pakistanis.
This is another layer of complication. The Russians, in turn, claim that at least a part of the Islamic State was financed by the United States. And now, the US wants the Bagram airfield, with Trump threatening that 'bad things' would happen to the Taliban if they didn't concede. That has alarmed China considerably, since the airfield is close to major Chinese nuclear sites. Its foreign minister, Wang Yi, who recently chaired a Pakistan-Afghanistan-China trilateral, was all for encouraging everyone to come together for peace in 'South Asia'. That's Beijing playing mediator as the US storms in.
Caught In The Middle
In sum, this is a heady mix of superpowers and regional bosses. And the Pashtuns are caught literally and metaphorically in the middle. Don't expect anyone to pull up the Pakistanis for their cruel and random bombing. The US will mull over the fact that Chinese precision-guided weapons are working for the Pakistanis, and Beijing itself is now in no position to chastise. Besides, the trilateral also outlines ambitious cross-border plans, including extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan, not to mention railway lines and the like in a race to prevent further US ingress.
Islamabad is basking in a wooing game involving superpowers, but it reckons without the Pashtuns. The Afridis have risen in a holy war earlier, too, against oppressors like the British. This time, it might just be a war of survival. Nothing holier than that.
For India, this cold war has come to its doorstep, though it might just have to keep that door ajar.
(Tara Kartha was with the National Security Council Secretariat)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
