US President Donald Trump's recent announcement to resume nuclear testing is aimed at bolstering the US deterrence posture vis-à-vis an emerging threat landscape. Though the US later clarified that it was not planning to conduct nuclear explosions, Trump administration's approach so far on all matters nuclear has showcased a full spectrum, ranging from an inclusive proposal for arms reduction among the US, China and Russia to the latest resumption of nuclear testing. The pretext to this development is the dawn of a new nuclear age which is being shaped by sharpening major power contestation. With both Russia and China modernising their nuclear arsenals, the US today faces two-peer nuclear rivals. Alongside, North Korea since 2006 has also exploded six nuclear devices. Putin's Russia has asserted to take “reciprocal measures”, while China has put the onus on the US to uphold the moratorium on testing for order and stability. The US-created nuclear order that has sustained since the end of the Second World War is now under serious strain.
From Disorder to Decay…
Deterrence, arms control and non-proliferation are three key pillars of the nuclear order. The war in Ukraine has led to a setback in the US-Russia political ties and a seeming end of arms control. Challengers to the nuclear status quo, such as Iran and North Korea, as well as US allies, are more emboldened than ever to pursue nuclear options.
This raises serious challenges for US policymakers as they seek to rebuild assurance vis-à-vis allies as well as uphold the benchmarks of non-proliferation. The geopolitical environment has a key influence on the nuclear dimension of the US-China-Russia triangular relationship. It has resulted in a tripolar nuclear order marked with both Russia and China over past years underlining their inclination towards warfighting in the nuclear environment.
The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty That Never Could Be
The US desire to resume nuclear testing amidst Russian and Chinese modernisation of nuclear arsenals may be aimed at strengthening its deterrence posture. But it may also undermine major power stability - one of the core objectives of the global nuclear order. Even the idea of reviving nuclear testing will disincentivise states from maintaining stability and make a shift from prospects of a cooperative calculus to a zero-sum based order.
As a result, the principles of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) of 1996, which never came into force, is likely to become the first victim. Though the CTBT never became a legal instrument, over decades, it supported the expansion of core objectives and architecture of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Russia de-ratified the CTBT in 2023 against the backdrop of Russia-Ukraine war, while both the US and China never ratified it in the first place. Trump's move could also be seen as a signal to both China and Russia to work towards a cooperative framework to manage arms reduction in the new nuclear age. But in a hyper-contested geopolitical environment like today's, how this move is perceived is anyone's guess.
The China-India-Pakistan Dynamic
In terms of regional order, the China-India-Pakistan triadic rivalry remains the most significant aspect of the emerging nuclear environment. China's growing arsenal is already raising alarm bells, and, if supplemented by nuclear testing, it will create unprecedented strain on New Delhi's security. India-China relations have already seen an inflection point in the form of the Galwan crisis in 2020, leading to a ‘lesser trust, fewer engagements' equation. Amidst this, if China pursues testing, New Delhi may feel compelled to rethink its stance on nuclear testing.
Post-Operation Sindoor, Pakistan's continuation of testing of potential dual-use vectors is another threat factor for New Delhi. Both India and Pakistan have not ratified the CTBT but abide by a unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing. Besides the threat, India's decision will also have to take into account diplomatic factors such as its own image of a responsible nuclear power as well as the NSG (Nuclear Suppliers' Group) waiver that allows India to engage in civilian nuclear trade. For Pakistan, resource limitations and poor deterrence value given an existing tactical nuclear weapon (TNW)-based nuclear posture against India are two major constraints.
Pushing 'Deterrence' Over The Edge
China's growing capabilities are aimed at integrating conventional and nuclear domains of warfighting. Russia has tested the Burevestnik, a nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable intercontinental cruise missile, as well as the Poseidon, a large nuclear-powered and nuclear-tipped uninhabited underwater vehicle. Following these developments, the US move to resume nuclear testing pushes the concepts of deterrence and stability to its limits. As a consequence, the US, China and Russia-led tripolar strategic stability is likely to become more volatile.
The regional nuclear order, specifically, the China-India-Pakistan triadic rivalry, will also shift gears. India's choices would require a balance between its no-first-use posture and finessing the credibility of its deterrence. The idea of resumption of nuclear testing will test the durability of deterrence and mutual stability in a world marked by growing political volatility. It has already opened a Pandora's box amidst the existing elements of disorder and is likely to be a litmus test for the global nuclear order.
(Harsh V Pant is Vice President, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. Rahul Rawat is a Research Associate at ORF.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the authors
