As Bihar's political landscape heats up ahead of the next assembly elections, the Mahagathbandhan has announced the Rashtriya Janata Dal's (RJD) Tejashwi Yadav, son of Lalu Yadav, as the alliance's chief ministerial candidate. The decision, coming after intense debate amongst partners, could potentially determine the electoral fate of the alliance in a state known for its complex caste arithmetic and volatile political equations. But is this a masterstroke or a strategic gamble?
The Case for Tejashwi
The arguments in favour of projecting Tejashwi Yadav as the CM face are substantial and rooted in both electoral data and political momentum. This decision would energise the cadre of the RJD - the single largest party in Bihar and the leader of the Mahagathbandhan - and galvanise its core vote blocs. Tejashwi has emerged as a popular leader who commands significant grassroots support, particularly among the youth, Yadavs and Muslims. His projection would provide clarity and direction to the political campaign and give the RJD organisation a clear figurehead to rally behind.
Perhaps the most compelling factor to consider is that 15% of voters, according to the VoteVibe survey, make their decision based on the chief ministerial candidate. In a tightly contested election where margins are small - razor-thin in 2020 - this segment becomes crucial. By declaring Tejashwi as the chief ministerial face, the Mahagathbandhan has given these voters a clear alternative to the incumbent leadership, especially when the Home Minister's statement regarding the National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) chief ministerial pick has created confusion over whether Nitish Kumar will retain his chair post the elections or not.
The timing also appears opportune. Nitish Kumar is widely perceived to be suffering from a "fatigue factor" after multiple terms in office. Voters often grow weary of long-standing leaders, and Tejashwi's projection could capitalise on this anti-incumbency sentiment. Long-tenure CMs such as Sheila Dixit, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Tarun Gogoi and Raman Singh, among others, lost elections after being in power for 15 years.
The contrast between the seasoned, ageing Nitish and the younger, more dynamic Tejashwi could work to the opposition's benefit, framing the election as a choice between the past and the future, especially when this may well be Nitish's last election. Surveys consistently show Tejashwi leading the chief ministerial race with 33%-35% ratings, making him the natural choice for the opposition. Had the Mahagathbandhan ignored this data-driven reality, it could have come across as working against popular sentiment, potentially demoralising supporters.
The youth factor cannot be understated. Voters aged 18-29 constitute approximately 25% of Bihar's electorate - a quarter of the voting population. Tejashwi's appeal in this demographic is substantial, thanks to his focus on employment, education, and opportunities. However, Prashant Kishor has also gained traction within this class. His promise of government jobs resonated powerfully in 2020.
Furthermore, declaring Tejashwi as the chief ministerial candidate would consolidate the core vote base of the alliance. The Yadav community, a crucial pillar of the MGB's support structure, would feel represented and validated. Combined with the fact that the alliance's Muslim support base commands a 32% share of the population, a clear chief ministerial projection could consolidate these votes and prevent any last-minute erosion to rival parties like the Jan Suraj or to fence-sitters. This gives the Mahagathbandhan a headstart of around 25% vote share.
Polarisation and Counter-Mobilisation
However, the decision to project Tejashwi comes with significant risks that cannot be dismissed. Perhaps the most serious concern is the possibility of counter-consolidation among upper castes and non-Yadav OBCs (NYOBCs). Bihar's caste dynamics are delicate, and an explicit Yadav face could trigger defensive voting patterns among certain communities and sharpen the forward-vs-backward narrative. The disgruntled upper caste or NYOBC voter who may have voted for Congress candidates from their community might stay at home or vote for the NDA.
The spectre of 2020 looms large in these calculations. The slogan "Tejashwi Tai Hai" (Tejashwi is decidedly coming to power) became a double-edged sword in that election. While it mobilised core supporters, it simultaneously instilled fear among upper-caste voters who worried about their status and opportunities under a Yadav-led government. This apprehension contributed to the alliance's losses despite seemingly favourable pre-poll predictions and COVID mismanagement.
There's also a legitimate concern about communal polarisation. With Tejashwi in the fray, NDA could attempt to frame the election in a communal tone - positioning him as the chief ministerial face for minorities, turning the election into a Hindu-vs-Muslim contest. This could take away the focus from governance issues, development, or incumbent failures.
The non-Yadav OBC factor deserves special attention. These communities - backward classes other than Yadavs - felt marginalised during the Lalu-Rabri tenure from 1990 to 2005. They then got a Chief Minister in Nitish. Now, they may fear that their interests will be subordinated to Yadav priorities under a Tejashwi-led government. This perception could neutralise the Mahagathbandhan's efforts to woo these communities with higher ticket allocations.
It also gives the NDA a chance to rake up the corruption issue plaguing the Lalu family and deflect attention from some of the allegations made by Prashant Kishor against its own senior leaders. It could help the NDA re-ignite fear amongst upper castes, NYOBCs and EBCs, though the announcement of Mukesh Sahani as the deputy chief minister face may neutralise these concerns to some extent among EBCs. On the flip side, it could also open a Pandora's box if Dalits and Muslims feel cheated for not being represented.
Strategic Dilemma Or Masterstroke?
The Mahagathbandhan finds itself navigating two political realities. On one hand, modern electoral politics increasingly demands clear leadership projection - voters want to know who they're voting for, not just which alliance. Ambiguity can appear weak or indecisive. On the other hand, Bihar's intricate social fabric means that explicit projections can trigger unintended consequences that undermine the very coalition being constructed.
We will get to know only post-poll which factor was more powerful: the projection of a clear Chief Ministerial face or the counter-mobilisation it might trigger. Data suggests Tejashwi has significant support, but 2020 demonstrated that support doesn't automatically translate into victory when counter-forces mobilise effectively. Hereon, the Mahagathbandhan should carry out calibrated messaging - projecting Tejashwi's leadership while emphasising unity, inclusive governance, coalition values, common manifesto and issue-based campaigning that transcends caste considerations.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
