A major question is now quietly being discussed across West Bengal's political circles: Is the Trinamool Congress staring at a split? Could Bengal witness a Maharashtra-like political scenario where a ruling party eventually breaks into factions, much like the Shiv Sena or the NCP?
The discussion may appear speculative, but recent developments in the Trinamool Congress have made such questions impossible to ignore. There is now open gossip, internal distrust, visible rebellion, and growing distance between sections of the leadership and the party's grassroots representatives. Naturally, this has led to wider political speculation over whether the TMC could eventually face an organisational rupture.
The conversation has intensified since the results of the recent assembly elections. Since the declaration of the results on May 4, several MPs, MLAs, councillors, and district-level leaders have publicly voiced dissatisfaction with the party leadership. Interestingly, most of their criticism has not been directed primarily at Mamata Banerjee herself, but rather at Abhishek Banerjee and the growing influence of organisations like IPAC within the party structure.
Many leaders are now openly saying that the traditional political culture of the Trinamool Congress has changed. According to them, decision-making has become increasingly centralised and heavily dependent on consultants, survey systems, and external political strategists. Several leaders feel that the organic political connection between the party and ordinary workers is weakening.
The internal discomfort became more visible during the meetings called by Mamata Banerjee with party MLAs. Reports suggest that attendance gradually declined from one meeting to another. The first meeting saw relatively strong participation, but attendance reduced in the second meeting, and fell even further during the third. Officially, many absent MLAs cited health concerns, personal engagements, or security-related excuses. However, politically, many observers believe the real reason was different: several MLAs no longer wanted to remain visibly close to the current leadership structure.
At the first meeting itself, Mamata Banerjee reportedly asked MLAs to stand up and publicly express support for Abhishek Banerjee. That incident itself revealed the growing nervousness within the party leadership regarding internal dissent.
Meanwhile, disciplinary action against dissenters has only intensified tensions further. Two MLAs were expelled from the party after allegations emerged regarding forged signatures connected to legislative communications. However, the expelled leaders strongly denied the allegations and claimed that their signatures had been digitally manipulated using computer technology. They alleged that documents were circulated without their knowledge and that false communications were shown in their names.
The matter became even more embarrassing for the party because allegations of forged signatures and manipulated letters soon turned into a public political controversy. Questions began to emerge regarding internal coordination, organisational transparency, and the functioning of the legislative party itself.
According to the sequence of events, on May 18, 2026, Abhishek Banerjee reportedly wrote to the Principal Secretary of the Assembly seeking formal recognition regarding a legislative resolution. Later, on May 20, a response was sent stating that a meeting of opposition legislators had taken place where around 70 MLAs raised their hands in support of making Suvendu Adhikari the leader of the opposition.
However, controversy erupted because several MLAs later claimed they had neither attended such a meeting nor signed any resolution. This raised serious procedural questions. If signatures were indeed forged, then how many legislators were actually involved? Was the resolution genuinely passed? Or was there manipulation somewhere within the system?
The matter eventually reached the CID level, and even the Chief Minister reportedly acknowledged that several MLAs were being questioned. The entire episode deepened the sense of mistrust within the party.
What is politically significant is that the rebellion is no longer limited to isolated individuals. Broader discomfort is visible. Some leaders have begun quietly avoiding party meetings altogether. Others are speaking off the record about fear, pressure, and the inability to express opinions freely within the organisation.
This has naturally triggered a larger political debate: if dissatisfaction continues to grow, could a separate political platform emerge in Bengal? Not necessarily the BJP, and not necessarily another Congress-style force, but perhaps a third political space created by dissatisfied Trinamool leaders themselves?
Indian politics has seen such examples before. From the Congress splitting into multiple regional factions over decades, to more recent developments in Maharashtra involving the Shiv Sena and NCP, party divisions are no longer considered impossible. Bengal itself has witnessed repeated political realignments throughout its history.
For now, much of the discussion remains political "kite-flying", speculation without certainty. But the speculation exists because the signs of internal instability are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
The larger concern for the Trinamool Congress is not simply rebellion, but perception. Once a ruling party begins appearing internally divided, doubts begin spreading both within the organisation and among ordinary voters. Questions then arise about authority, succession, ideological direction, and organisational discipline.
At present, Mamata Banerjee remains the central face and emotional anchor of the Trinamool Congress. Her political authority in Bengal remains unmatched within the party structure. However, the emerging tension surrounding Abhishek Banerjee's growing role has clearly exposed a generational and organisational transition that many leaders are still struggling to accept.
The coming months will, therefore, become extremely important. Whether this dissatisfaction fades away through internal negotiations or eventually transforms into a larger organisational crisis will determine the future direction of Bengal politics.
For now, the Trinamool Congress officially remains united. But beneath that official unity, the political unease is becoming increasingly visible.
(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
