Invites to the Ram Temple consecration in Ayodhya have sent the Opposition into a tailspin. The Left parties, as expected, have spoken against the event. Sharad Pawar, Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav and Uddhav Thackeray have voiced their reservations.
Congress sources say Sonia Gandhi may attend the event on January 22, though it will finally decide closer to the day. And in more evidence of the party's dilemma, it took three days to react to the statement from Chicago by overseas Congress chief Sam Pitroda, considered Rahul Gandhi's mentor. Jairam Ramesh said Sam Pitroda had not reflected the party's position. That position has not been spelt out yet.
The aura of Ayodhya's Ram temple inauguration will not be the only Hindutva surge. The Ayodhya judgment, which facilitated the temple's construction, came on 9 November 2019. In July that year, during his visit to the United Arab Emirates, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had succeeded in persuading the Abu Dhabi ruler to allot 17 acres of land to the Swaminarayan cult for a Hindu temple in Arabia. In mid-February, this temple too will be inaugurated during a 'Festival of Harmony' in Modi's presence. UAE has an Indian population of 3.5 million.
In 1949, when the Ayodhya dispute escalated with the sudden appearance of a deity at the site, there was no Jana Sangh or BJP (Jana Sangh was founded in 1951). During an assembly by-election in Faizabad (renamed Ayodhya in 2018) the Congress nominated a seer, Baba Raghav Das, who defeated socialist stalwart Acharya Narendra Dev after a communally vitriolic campaign.
The site became a matter of dispute soon afterwards and a lock was installed at the premises, which was opened after a court order in February 1986 during the Rajiv Gandhi regime. The presence of union ministers and live Doordarshan coverage of the lock opening pointed at official culpability in the event. The Shilanyas (foundation stone laying) of the temple was done on the eve of the 1989 elections under the orders of the Congress regime.
While the Congress vacillates, the BJP has always been steadfast on its stand. 'Mandir' is not the only agenda on which the BJP is pegging its 2024 strategy. The 'labharthis' or beneficiaries of government schemes are being targeted assiduously.
As the election year rolls in, it is incumbent upon the opposition to aim for replacing the incumbent government. The 28 non-BJP parties lined up on the INDIA bloc platform are hoping that like in 2004, when Atal Bihari Vajpayee's "India Shining" campaign failed, 2024 will see the BJP unable to cross the halfway mark, throwing open the possibility of the return of coalition politics.
The Congress, which won 145 against the BJP's 138 in 2004, was able to stitch together a motley coalition and form a government headed by Dr Mammohan Singh, remote controlled by the Sonia Gandhi-headed National Advisory Committee (NAC). The Congress interpreted that election result as a 'mandate' whereas it merely presented it an opportunity to govern. Governance-deficit or policy paralysis became the regime's nadir a decade later.
2024 is not 2004. The BJP is not seeking a mandate now as a party bereft of Lok Sabha majority. In 2014 and 2019, Narendra Modi's charisma, riding on Amit Shah's election management juggernaut, ensured a clear majority for the BJP. The well-oiled machinery works 24x7, all 12 months, unlike the election preps of other parties that begin just before polls. The BJP's clarity of purpose is pitted against an opposition mired in crosscurrents.
As the INDIA parties confabulate, devoid of an agenda and on the sole plank that Modi has to go, the BJP has been concentrating on rolling out its message through the Viksit Bharat Sankalp Yatra (BVSY) vans crisscrossing the countryside since mid-November with the message of the government's welfare schemes. It is a government programme that the BJP cadre are aiding and monitoring. As the vans travel, those who have not benefitted so far are identified and added to the list of beneficiaries (labharthis).
Modi has regularly interacted with the labharthis targeted by the yatra vans across the country. Interactions through video conferencing took place on November 30, December 9, 16, and 27. These meetings have been telecast and are being cascaded by the BJP's cyber-warriors. The vans have been described by him as "Modi ki guarantee ki gaadi".
The BJP under Modi has fulfilled manifesto promises made by Jana Sangh since its formation in 1952, like the abrogation of Article 370 and the adoption of a citizenship Act. The Ram temple was adopted as an agenda at Palampur by the BJP in 1987. The Article 370 decision has received the Supreme Court's approval. The Ayodhya dispute, which began in 1858 and intensified in 1949, was resolve in the Supreme Court, which enabled the construction of the temple. BJP-ruled states like Uttarakhand have begun the spadework for a Uniform Civil Code (UCC).
Governments have collapsed in the past after well-planned mass movements. The JP movement of 1974 set the stage for opposition unity and the Congress rout of 1977. The Bofors propaganda and mass mobilisation by VP Singh from 1987 onwards ousted Rajiv Gandhi in 1989. The Anna Hazare-led anti-corruption movement in 2011 gave birth to the Aam Aadmi Party and provided the backdrop for the defeat of Manmohan Singh by the BJP in 2014.
There is no mass mobilisation in the present day. The INDIA parties, during the recent parliament session when 146 MPs were suspended, threatened mass action. Only a one-day united protest at New Delhi's Jantar Mantar ensued. During the previous session, the MPs of these parties walked 200 meters on Vijay Chowk to express their angst. The opposition's mobilisation is sans masses, only placards and protests within the secure confines of Lutyen's Delhi have marked their anti-Modi shows.
Rahul Gandhi will now embark on his Bharat Nyay Yatra, which is the Bharat Jodo Yatra 2.0. It is claimed that his previous yatra yielded the Congress victories in Karnataka and Telangana. The yatra had passed through Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan as well.
On the one hand, the Congress is seeking crowd funding to meet its pecuniary crunch. On the other, a lavish bus journey across 14 states is being rolled out. In an election year, a political party keeps aside its resources for funding candidates.
Not only in strategy, but also in the deployment of resources, the Congress's priorities seem lopsided. The response of INDIA allies to Rahul Gandhi's yatra will be worth noting, considering it is Mallikarjun Kharge, not Rahul, who emerged as the focal point in the recent INDIA conclave.
The Nyay Yatra may provide additional branding for Rahul Gandhi when he addresses audiences abroad, along with the efforts of Sam Pitroda. But will it help rebuild the Congress brand?
(Shubhabrata Bhattacharya is a retired Editor and a public affairs commentator)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author