Though what happened in Bengaluru on Wednesday could turn that theory upside down. The BJP was invited by the Karnataka governor to form government in the state, after the election threw a hung assembly.
Trouble is feared during counting and violence after Bengal panchayat poll results are announced. A section of poll officers in North Dinajpur district threatened to boycott poll duty unless they are provided proper security. They protested in Raiganj and blocked National Highway 34 for hours over this demand. This demand arose after a presiding officer was found dead on rail tracks at Raiganj. Police suspect suicide but fellow poll officers don't agree.
The State Election Commission has ordered that no victory rallies will be allowed by political parties till all results are announced. Counting will be held across the state at multiple centres. Prohibitory orders are imposed in a 200 metre radius around each centre.
Around five crore people cast their vote to choose from over 1.15 lakh candidates for representatives to 38,529 seats. The actual number of panchayat seats is 58,692. But a record 34 per cent seats were won unopposed by the ruling Trinamool Congress.
Trinamool fielded 38,443 and the opposition the rest. There are a large number of independents as well, many of them rebel Trinamool candidates.
This panchayat poll is the last major poll in Bengal before 2019 and results will show which way the wind may blow. The Trinamool is the superpower in the state but the BJP's poll percentage has been steadily rising - from about 3 per cent in the 2013 rural polls to above 20 per cent in recent bypolls.