Why NDA Is Keen On This Bihar Star Despite History Of Betrayal, Rebellion

Caste equations are a big factor in Bihar elections, but the impact of Bhojpuri stardom can't be ruled out. For both NDA and the RJD-led Grand Alliance, the biggest challenge, as well as their focus, lies in those seats where they suffered defeat during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Shahabad region is particularly crucial, especially Karakat, where Bhojpuri superstar Pawan Singh's entry has changed the entire equation. The latest developments suggest Singh is inches away from joining Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM). While an official announcement is still awaited, reports indicate he is being lured with two seats in the upcoming Bihar election.

Commanding a massive fan base in Bihar, Pawan Singh's electoral presence is an important factor in the caste and stardom balance. A former BJP leader, he was expelled from the party last year. Now, bringing him and Kushwaha together is being billed as masterstroke, but it wasn't an easy task, in view of their history fraught with rebellion and betrayal.

Sources suggest that the BJP's Bihar election in-charge Dharmendra Pradhan had been working on this political move under the supervision of Home Minister Amit Shah.   

The persuasion game played out even yesterday. The BJP's Bihar in-charge Vinod Tawde and National Secretary Rituraj Sinha met Kushwaha last night, a day ahead of his meeting with the Bhojpuri star. After the meeting, Tawde said that Singh will always remain in the BJP and follow their ideology.

Will Pawan Singh join Upendra Kushwaha?

Sources suggest that talks are already underway to induct Singh in Kushwaha's party. The Bhojpuri star has reportedly been promised two assembly seats; the icing on the cake is that he may also be sent to the Rajya Sabha. Such big promises raise questions over what compelled Kushwaha to include Singh in his party, especially in the view that the Bhojpuri singer was responsible for his election defeat in the Karakat Lok Sabha constituency last year.

In 2024, Singh had rebelled against the BJP. He was named a candidate by the BJP from Asansol in West Bengal though he was keen on contesting from Karakat. He turned a rebel and contested as an Independent from Karakat against Kushwaha, the official NDA candidate. Singh lost the election to his Left rival. But more importantly, Kushwaha finished third.

Consequently, Singh was expelled by the BJP. 

Why is Pawan Singh important for NDA?

Political analysts say it is difficult for any party to ignore a star figure like Pawan Singh in Bihar politics. His popularity is not only among Bhojpuri speakers, but across rural and urban areas.

Besides, the 2024 Karakat results had completely disrupted the Shahabad equations. The tensions between the Kushwaha and the Rajput communities further exacerbated this defeat. The BJP and the NDA does not want to lose the plot this time. This explains their focus on this area.

Pawan Singh And Caste Equations

Pawan Singh is also crucial for the caste-based vote bank. Karakat Lok Sabha segment is part of the Shahabad region where caste equations have been a crucial factor. In the 2020 assembly elections, the NDA had won only two seats out of the total 22 in the region. Experts believe that it was Singh's rebellion that had led to the BJP's defeat in Ara, Karakat, Aurangabad, and Buxar Lok Sabha seats.

Bihar BJP veteran RK Singh has also repeatedly stressed the need for a strong figure to sustain its Rajput vote bank. Singh's support could achieve this.

The New Pawan-Upendra Equation

In the last Lok Sabha elections, RJD patriarch Lalu Yadav tried to form a Yadav-Muslim-Kushwaha alliance by giving tickets to Kushwaha candidates, and the alliance benefited from this at the national level. If the Rajput vote bank shifts to the NDA with Pawan Singh, and Upendra Kushwaha succeeds in retaining his own caste's voters, it could significantly weaken the RJD-led alliance.