Pulse of Bihar: How Phase 1 Of Assembly Polls May Unfold

What are the main agendas and who are the star campaigners for the first phase of assembly elections to be held in Bihar on November 6? The last time, Mahagathbandhan had the advantage in the belt in the south of Ganga. Will the NDA, with a blitzkrieg campaign strategy, trounce the Mahagathbandhan this time?

On November 6, the first phase of the assembly polls is set to unfold across 121 constituencies that carry the weight of political history and social dynamics. 

In this vibrant tapestry of democracy, where every vote resonates with aspirations and anxieties of the people, the stage is set for a contest that echoes far beyond its geographical confines.

In the 2020 elections, the Mahagathbandhan - a coalition of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Left parties, and the Congress - secured a significant foothold in this region, winning 63 of 121 seats. 

The BJP and Janata Dal (United) together had managed 55 seats. 
This historical context plays a crucial role indicating the Mahagathbandhan enters the fray with an inherent advantage, buoyed by past successes in this region of South and Central Bihar.

PM Modi's Impressive road show in Patna

As the campaign intensifies, two figures emerge as the key architects of their respective narratives: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Leader of the Opposition, Rahul Gandhi. 

PM Modi's recent roadshow in Patna -- an impressive display of political might -- saw thousands of women lining the streets, a testament to his enduring appeal.

Accompanied by JD(U) leader Lalan Singh, his presence, though weighed down by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's absence, serves to solidify the NDA's commitment to the region. 

The jugalbandi between PM Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is best displayed when one observes how the women find both leaders in their mid-70s adorable. 

The streets of Patna become a living canvas, painted with the hopes of those who seek change, and appreciation for incumbents despite 20 years in power (for Nitish Kumar) and 11 years for PM Modi. 

The apparent anti-incumbency and anger among the youth (mostly the unemployed or those forced to migrate) are often caught in the web of political promises like government jobs.

Rahul Gandhi: from Vote Chori slogan to swim in the pond with fishermen.

On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi's approach has been both dynamic and faltering. His 16-day Voter Adhikar rally, conducted with partners from RJD and CPI-ML, sought to rekindle the spirit of engagement among voters. 

However, his subsequent disappearance from the campaign landscape for nearly two months cast a shadow over his efforts. 

The slogan "Vote Chori" resonates with the electorate's frustrations, yet Gandhi's absence raises questions about the coherence and vigour of the Opposition's strategy. 

Rahul Gandhi tried to make up with a swim in a pond with VIP leader Mukesh Saini and fishermen and boatmen of the Mallah community in another part of Bihar.

That created a great photo-opportunity and was trending on social media. It may also fetch more votes in the second phase of polling. Nishads and Mallahs are a dominant community in some areas of Mithilanchal like Darbhanga, Madhubani, and the Kosi belt.

Jobs, migration, corruption, decline of education remain the top agenda

The central themes of this electoral battle are as pressing as they are complex. Unemployment, outmigration, corruption, and the decline of education and healthcare dominate the discourse. 

In a state where many seek opportunities beyond its borders, the promise of jobs is not a mere campaign promise but a lifeline. 

Tejashwi Yadav's pledge of one government job for every household -translating to a staggering 1.3 crore jobs over five years - strikes a chord. It embodies hope and ambition, in stark contrast to the NDA manifesto which promises 1 crore government jobs and aims to create 1 crore women lakhpatis.

Prashant Kishor of Jan Suraj Party adds another layer to this complex narrative, echoing concern about corruption and decline in essential services. 

His emphasis on jobs, education, and health aligns with the electorate's urgent desires, yet his independent stance raises questions about the potential fracture of the Opposition vote.
As the day of reckoning approaches, the landscape of Bihar politics remains a battleground of ideologies and aspirations. The Mahagathbandhan, with its historical advantage and resonant promises, seems poised to capitalize on the electorate's yearning for change. 

However, PM Modi's formidable presence and the NDA's organized machinery cannot be underestimated. 

Nitish Kumar basks in the glory of 20 years of incumbency, with sympathy vote from women who care about his health, and from lakhs of women who have gained from his various welfare initiatives and prohibition. 

The pulse of Bihar beats with uncertainty, and as the votes are cast, the outcome will reflect not just a choice between parties, but a deeper longing for a better future.

Jan (people) may be with Mahagathbandhan but Tantra (resources) is surely with the NDA.

In this intricate dance of democracy, the question remains: who will emerge victorious in this pivotal moment of Bihar's political saga? The NDA or the Mahagathbandhan? Or will the mysterious X-factor of Prashant Kishor, who can play the great role of a spoiler? 

The answer lies not only in numbers but the narratives that resonate within the hearts and minds of people, as they seek to shape the trajectory of their state. 

To summarise pithily, the Battle of Jantantra (democracy) in Bihar might have a large section of the Jan (people) divided among the challengers. But the NDA has a monopoly over the Tantra (resources) which translates to, among other things, great campaign with Union ministers and BJP chief ministers from more than a dozen states. 

Unless the Mahagathbandhan improves its campaign, coordination among allies (still struggling with around 12 "friendly fights") and carries out largescale vote transfers among allies, they might lose their 2020 advantage.