6 years ago
New Delhi:
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman today tabled the Economic Survey 2018-19 in the Rajya Sabha. As the flagship document of the finance ministry, the Economic Survey, prepared by Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian, highlights the challenges that the economy might face in its pursuit to become the world's fifth largest economy. It is also details reforms roadmap needed to fulfil Prime Minister Narendra Modi's goal of more than doubling the size of the economy to USD 5 trillion by 2024. The survey comes a day ahead of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presents the first budget of the Modi 2.0 government.
The Economic Survey, the annual report of the Indian economy for the year gone by (2018-19), also comes at a time when some critics have said that the Modi government in its first term delivered a jobless growth and it needed to re-invent to propel the economy and create jobs.
Here are the highlights on the 2019 Economic Survey:
Jul 04, 2019 19:35 (IST)
Economic Survey "signals towards worrying signs for our economy," says Arvind Kejriwal
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal expressed concern over "worrying signs" for country's economy, pointing to "virtually stagnant" GDP growth rate, as the Economic Survey report was presented in Parliament on Thursday, reported news agency PTI.
India's economic growth will rebound from a five-year low this year, but would need a huge boost in spending and reforms to accelerate higher rate of expansion to double the economy's size to USD 5 trillion by 2024-25, the pre-Budget Economic Survey said.
Mr Kejriwal, however, feared a "slowdown" in the economy.
"Economic Survey presented in the Parliament today signals towards worrying signs for our economy. GDP growth rate is virtually stagnant and all indicators point that we are in a slowdown," he tweeted.
India's economic growth will rebound from a five-year low this year, but would need a huge boost in spending and reforms to accelerate higher rate of expansion to double the economy's size to USD 5 trillion by 2024-25, the pre-Budget Economic Survey said.
Mr Kejriwal, however, feared a "slowdown" in the economy.
"Economic Survey presented in the Parliament today signals towards worrying signs for our economy. GDP growth rate is virtually stagnant and all indicators point that we are in a slowdown," he tweeted.
Jul 04, 2019 19:26 (IST)
Economic Survey 2019: "India has made leap into the era of high economic policy certainty": Arun Jaitley
"From the highest level of economic policy uncertainty in 2011-12, India has made leap into the era of high economic policy certainty. The Graph of Indian growth story is on an upward trajectory," said former Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, tweeting about the Economic Survey.
Jul 04, 2019 19:04 (IST)
Economic Survey 2019: India set to witness sharp slowdown in population growth in next two decades
India is set to witness a sharp slowdown in population growth over the next two decades, the Economic Survey said Thursday and suggested raising retirement age and merging schools as there would be less children, reported news agency PTI.
Although the country as a whole will enjoy the ''demographic dividend'' phase, some states will start transitioning to an ageing society by the 2030s, as per the Economic Survey 2018-19, presented in parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
"It will surprise many readers to learn that population in the 0-19 age bracket has already peaked due to sharp declines in total fertility rates (TFR) across the country," it said.
At present, TFR of 2.1 children per woman is called the replacement level fertility, which is the average number of children a woman would need to have in order for the population to replace itself.
The southern states, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal and Maharashtra now have fertility rates well below the replacement rate.
TFR in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are above the replacement rate but are also experiencing significant declines, reported PTI.
"The age distribution, however, implies that India''s working-age population will grow by roughly 9.7 mn per year during 2021-31 and 4.2mn per year in 2031-41," it said.
Although the country as a whole will enjoy the ''demographic dividend'' phase, some states will start transitioning to an ageing society by the 2030s, as per the Economic Survey 2018-19, presented in parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
"It will surprise many readers to learn that population in the 0-19 age bracket has already peaked due to sharp declines in total fertility rates (TFR) across the country," it said.
At present, TFR of 2.1 children per woman is called the replacement level fertility, which is the average number of children a woman would need to have in order for the population to replace itself.
The southern states, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal and Maharashtra now have fertility rates well below the replacement rate.
TFR in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are above the replacement rate but are also experiencing significant declines, reported PTI.
"The age distribution, however, implies that India''s working-age population will grow by roughly 9.7 mn per year during 2021-31 and 4.2mn per year in 2031-41," it said.
Jul 04, 2019 18:50 (IST)
Economic Survey 2019: Sitaram Yechury says Economic Survey is full of "bombastic" claims
CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury Thursday alleged that the Economic Survey is full of "bombastic" claims and "grandiose" declarations, but lacks basic facts, reported news agency PTI.
The Left leader also said the survey "whitewashes" the "terrible" economic record of the last five years and hit out at the government over the resignation of top RBI officials.
The pre-Budget Economic Survey said India's economic growth will rebound from a five-year low this year, but would need a huge boost in spending and reforms to accelerate higher rate of expansion to double the economy's size to USD 5 trillion by 2024-25.
"The Economic Survey is full of bombastic claims and grandiose declarations without any basis in facts. Any growth strategy based on private investment will be a non-starter; economic growth needs more purchasing power amongst people, not more investment with higher unemployment," Mr Yechury tweeted.
The survey "glosses over the major challenges faced by millions of Indians and whitewashes the terrible economic record of past five years", he said.
The Left leader also said the survey "whitewashes" the "terrible" economic record of the last five years and hit out at the government over the resignation of top RBI officials.
The pre-Budget Economic Survey said India's economic growth will rebound from a five-year low this year, but would need a huge boost in spending and reforms to accelerate higher rate of expansion to double the economy's size to USD 5 trillion by 2024-25.
"The Economic Survey is full of bombastic claims and grandiose declarations without any basis in facts. Any growth strategy based on private investment will be a non-starter; economic growth needs more purchasing power amongst people, not more investment with higher unemployment," Mr Yechury tweeted.
The survey "glosses over the major challenges faced by millions of Indians and whitewashes the terrible economic record of past five years", he said.
Jul 04, 2019 18:32 (IST)
The Economic Survey 2018-19 has stressed the need for reducing economic policy uncertainty in the country to promote investment and has recommended the predictability of policies, quarterly monitoring of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index and quality certification.
Jul 04, 2019 18:23 (IST)
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Jul 04, 2019 18:22 (IST)
Jul 04, 2019 18:07 (IST)
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Jul 04, 2019 18:05 (IST)
Chief Economic Adviser KV Subramanian speaks to NDTV on The Economic Survey:
- We view jobs and demand in silos while they're complimentary. We have gathered careful evidence from China and other east Asian economies.
- Our target is to achieve a $5-trillion economy.
- We need to grow at 8 per cent to achieve Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision.
- Growth slowdown is because of the growth slowdown before 2014. The quality of investment was poor. Growth slowdown itself has been because of an overhang from an era before 2014.
- Lot of liquidity is floating around, there is scope of investment. Once we trigger the virtual cycle, investments will come in and jobs will get created.
- Aggregate savings have been falling. The decrease has been in the assets that households create.
- This government has come back with an unprecedented majority. We need to create a blueprint for 8 per cent growth.
- Banks are now factoring in that loan repay will be done quicker, letting banks give lower credit spread. Three lakh crores have been cleaned up through IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code)
- Recognize that there has been a slowdown, but we can get to 8% growth with investment, especially private sector investment.
- Globally liquidity conditions are extremely benign. We must enable some of the foreign savings to come in to trigger the virtuous cycle.
Jul 04, 2019 17:54 (IST)
Amid a slowdown of economy, the government today said it is expecting a 7 per cent growth in the current financial year - up from the 6.8 per cent recorded in the last financial year. The Economic Survey 2019, prepared by Chief Economic Advisor K Subramanian and tabled in parliament by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman - presented a blueprint to reach Prime Minister Narendra Modi's goal of a 5-trillion dollar economy. After the presentation, PM Modi tweeted, "The #EconomicSurvey2019 outlines a vision to achieve a $5 Trillion economy. It also depicts the gains from advancement in the social sector, adoption of technology and energy security."
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Jul 04, 2019 17:46 (IST)
Economic Survey 2019: Private sector investments in highways remains "tardy"
Terming highways as a catalyst for economic growth, the Economic Survey Thursday said private sector investments in the sector remained "tardy" as such investors are interested in putting their money on a short-term basis.
Even though the investment in highways has grown more than three times to Rs 1.58 lakh crore in 2018-19 availability of funds for financing large projects remains a bottleneck, the key document said, reported news agency PTI.
The survey also noted that the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) and the National Highways and Infrastructure Development Corporation Ltd were looking for long-term investments as the gestation period of road projects is long.
There are also the associated risks from the projected revenue streams not materialising from tolls because of uncertainty of traffic, it said.
Roads are part of an integrated multi-modal system of transport which provides crucial links to airports, railway stations, ports and other logistical hubs and acts as a catalyst for economic growth by playing a critical role in the supply chain management, the survey document noted.
"The major constraints faced are availability of funds for financing large projects, lengthy processes in acquisition of land and payment of compensation to the beneficiaries, environmental concerns, time and cost overruns due to delays in project implementation, procedural delays, lesser traffic growth than expected increasing the riskiness of the projects resulting in stalled or languishing projects and shortfall in funds for maintenance," it said.
This dominant mode of transportation in comparison with rail, air traffic and inland waterways and accounts for about 3.14 per cent of GVA (Gross Value Added) and 69 per cent and 90 per cent of the country wide freight and passenger traffic respectively, the survey said.
It budgetary support accounted for 48 per cent of the investments in 2018-19 and Internal and External Budgetary Resources (IEBR) accounted for 39 per cent with private investment accounting for only 14 per cent.
India has a road network of about 58.98 lakh kilometres as on March 31, 2017 with rural roads constituting 70.65 per cent and the national highways constituting 1.94 per cent.
The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MORTH) has declared 2018-19 as the ''Year of Construction'' and has been making constant efforts to expand and upgrade the network of the national highways in the country as a result of which road construction in kilometres grew at 30 kilometres per day in 2018-19 as compared to 12 kilo metres per day in 2014-15, the survey said.
Even though the investment in highways has grown more than three times to Rs 1.58 lakh crore in 2018-19 availability of funds for financing large projects remains a bottleneck, the key document said, reported news agency PTI.
The survey also noted that the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) and the National Highways and Infrastructure Development Corporation Ltd were looking for long-term investments as the gestation period of road projects is long.
There are also the associated risks from the projected revenue streams not materialising from tolls because of uncertainty of traffic, it said.
Roads are part of an integrated multi-modal system of transport which provides crucial links to airports, railway stations, ports and other logistical hubs and acts as a catalyst for economic growth by playing a critical role in the supply chain management, the survey document noted.
"The major constraints faced are availability of funds for financing large projects, lengthy processes in acquisition of land and payment of compensation to the beneficiaries, environmental concerns, time and cost overruns due to delays in project implementation, procedural delays, lesser traffic growth than expected increasing the riskiness of the projects resulting in stalled or languishing projects and shortfall in funds for maintenance," it said.
This dominant mode of transportation in comparison with rail, air traffic and inland waterways and accounts for about 3.14 per cent of GVA (Gross Value Added) and 69 per cent and 90 per cent of the country wide freight and passenger traffic respectively, the survey said.
It budgetary support accounted for 48 per cent of the investments in 2018-19 and Internal and External Budgetary Resources (IEBR) accounted for 39 per cent with private investment accounting for only 14 per cent.
India has a road network of about 58.98 lakh kilometres as on March 31, 2017 with rural roads constituting 70.65 per cent and the national highways constituting 1.94 per cent.
The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MORTH) has declared 2018-19 as the ''Year of Construction'' and has been making constant efforts to expand and upgrade the network of the national highways in the country as a result of which road construction in kilometres grew at 30 kilometres per day in 2018-19 as compared to 12 kilo metres per day in 2014-15, the survey said.
Jul 04, 2019 17:32 (IST)
Economic Survey 2019: Congress's Randeep Singh Surjewala tweets on Economic Survey
"Economic Survey2019 is pessimistic about the economy and makes a feeble attempt to wake up the ruling party from its deep slumber of inaction on the economic front," Mr Surjewala said in his tweet.
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Jul 04, 2019 17:23 (IST)
Former finance minister P Chidambaram on Thursday said there are no sector-wise growth projections in the pre-Budget Economic Survey tabled in parliament and the government itself appears to be pessimistic about the economy.
Jul 04, 2019 17:08 (IST)
Economic Survey 2019: P Chidambaram says government is "pessimistic" about the economy
Former finance minister P Chidambaram on Thursday said there are no sector-wise growth projections in the pre-Budget Economic Survey tabled in parliament and the government itself appears to be pessimistic about the economy.
In a statement, the senior Congress leader said the findings of the economic survey 2018-19 were neither positive nor encouraging.
"It appears to me that the government, speaking through the economic survey, is pessimistic about the economy," he was quoted as saying by news agency PTI.
Mr Chidambaram said the economic survey 2018-19 is the first of the new government under Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
"I looked for the Outlook for 2019-20. It is in Volume-2, Chapter 01, but there is only a bland statement that growth of the economy expected to be 7 per cent in 2019-20. There are no growth projections sector-wise," he said.
The Congress leader said the closest in terms of describing the outlook for 2019-20 can be found in Volume-2, Chapter 02.
"The economic survey flags (1) slowing growth, (2) shortfall in revenue, (3) finding resources without compromising the fiscal deficit target, (4) impact of oil prices on the current account and (5) recommendations of the Fifteenth Finance Commission on central government finances. I am afraid, none of these is positive or encouraging," he said.
According to the economic survey, India's economic growth, which is expected to rebound from a five-year low to 7 per cent this year, now needs to shift gears to accelerate and sustain a higher growth rate to become a USD 5-trillion economy by 2024-25.
In a statement, the senior Congress leader said the findings of the economic survey 2018-19 were neither positive nor encouraging.
"It appears to me that the government, speaking through the economic survey, is pessimistic about the economy," he was quoted as saying by news agency PTI.
Mr Chidambaram said the economic survey 2018-19 is the first of the new government under Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
"I looked for the Outlook for 2019-20. It is in Volume-2, Chapter 01, but there is only a bland statement that growth of the economy expected to be 7 per cent in 2019-20. There are no growth projections sector-wise," he said.
The Congress leader said the closest in terms of describing the outlook for 2019-20 can be found in Volume-2, Chapter 02.
"The economic survey flags (1) slowing growth, (2) shortfall in revenue, (3) finding resources without compromising the fiscal deficit target, (4) impact of oil prices on the current account and (5) recommendations of the Fifteenth Finance Commission on central government finances. I am afraid, none of these is positive or encouraging," he said.
According to the economic survey, India's economic growth, which is expected to rebound from a five-year low to 7 per cent this year, now needs to shift gears to accelerate and sustain a higher growth rate to become a USD 5-trillion economy by 2024-25.
Jul 04, 2019 15:53 (IST)
The Economic Survey "departs from traditional thinking by viewing the economy as being either in a virtuous or a vicious cycle, and thus never in equilibrium", Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said.
Jul 04, 2019 15:52 (IST)
GDP or gross domestic product growth is projected at 7 per cent in financial year 2019-20, according to the Economic Survey, tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday. The projection is higher than a growth rate of 6.8 per cent - the lowest in five years - clocked by the economy for the year ended March 31. If the projection comes true, it could help India regain the status of world's fastest-growing major economy by overtaking China. Prepared by Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian, today's Economic Survey is the first by the re-elected Narendra Modi government. The release of Economic Survey 2018-19 comes a day ahead of the presentation of Union Budget in Parliament.
Jul 04, 2019 14:17 (IST)
PM Modi Tweets On Economic Survey
Jul 04, 2019 13:43 (IST)
Jul 04, 2019 13:42 (IST)
In the next two decades, we will be able to avail the benefits of demographic change, which will enable us to grow in a sustained manner at 8%: KV Subramian
Jul 04, 2019 13:40 (IST)
Watch: KV Subramanian Speaks On Economic Survey
Jul 04, 2019 13:36 (IST)
On Economic Survey, Chief Economic Advisor KV Subramanian said: "Theme that underlies this economic survey is, the sky blue colour, the colour used for the survey, captures unfettered blue sky thinking which is what we've indulged in trying to come with the idea for this survey."
Jul 04, 2019 12:29 (IST)
Economic Survey Inspired By Gandhiji's Talisman, Says KV Subramanian
Jul 04, 2019 12:17 (IST)
Chief Economic Adviser KV Subramanian Elaborates Challenges, Key Aspects Of Economic Survey
Chief Economic Adviser KV Subramanian in a series of tweets elaborated the key aspects of the Economic Survey. "One of the biggest hurdles to #Economy5trillion is poor enforcement of contracts and dispute resolution," he said.
Jul 04, 2019 11:51 (IST)
Here Are The Highlights Of Economic Survey
- Huge political mandate augurs well for growth prospects
- Political stability should push animal spirits of economy
- Invest rate seen higher in the financial year on higher credit growth
- Investment rate seems to have bottomed out
- Investment rate seen higher in financial year on improved demand
- Green shoots in invest activity seem to be taking hold
- Rural wage growth started increasing since mid-2018
- India GDP growth has averaged a high 7.5% in last 5 yr
- January-March slowdown partly due to poll-related uncertainty
- Farmers may have produced less in financial year 2019 on food price fall
Jul 04, 2019 11:45 (IST)
Investment rate, which was declining from 2011-12 seems to have bottomed out, is expected to pick up further in the year 2019-20 on the back of higher credit growth, said the Economic Survey.
Jul 04, 2019 11:45 (IST)
The growth projection is higher than a five-year low economic growth of 6.8 per cent for the year ended March 31. Read here
Jul 04, 2019 11:26 (IST)
GDP Growth
GDP growth has been projected at 7 per cent for the year 2019-20 in the Economic Survey.
GDP growth has been projected at 7 per cent for the year 2019-20 in the Economic Survey.
Jul 04, 2019 11:23 (IST)
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tables Economic Survey 2019 in Rajya Sabha.
Jul 04, 2019 10:30 (IST)
The Economic Survey analyses the trends in agricultural and industrial production, infrastructure, employment, money supply, prices, imports, exports, foreign exchange reserves and other relevant economic factors which have a bearing on the Budget. Read here to understand the Economic Survey better.
Jul 04, 2019 09:50 (IST)
Jul 04, 2019 09:50 (IST)
An economic survey projecting the state of health of the country''s economy and outlining the challenges will be tabled in Parliament today.
The survey prepared by Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian is likely to flag headwinds that the economy might face in its pursuit to become the world''s fifth largest economy.
It is also likely to detail reforms road map needed to fulfil Modi''s goal of more than doubling the size of the economy to USD 5 trillion by 2024.
The survey, which traditionally has chapters on macro economy as well as industry and different sectors and the outlook, will come a day ahead of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presents the first budget of the Modi 2.0 government.
